Everyone gets excited about rookie running backs. We pretty much know what the best-case scenario is for established veterans, and those players are drafted accordingly (early). With rookies, there's always the chance you get 1st-round types of numbers from a guy you can select in the fourth or fifth round of drafts, and winning a league because of it. Javonte Williams is one of those potential breakouts.
While Najee Harris was a first-round pick and is expected to start right away in Pittsburgh, Williams was a second-round pick of the Broncos, and expected to start out behind or in a tandem with Melvin Gordon. That makes him easier to land in drafts (and of course, riskier). But at least one team observer thinks Williams will start right away.
The Denver Post's Ryan O'Halloran made the case on a Sirius radio show over the weekend. "I think he's a Week 1 starter," he said. "You don't trade up in the second round for that position without having him earmarked to be your main guy."
I'm inclined to disagree with the writer there -- Williams just turned 21, and years like 2022 and 2023 are also important -- but his opinion carries some weight. If Williams is impressive in July and August and the team can save some money by moving on from Gordon, maybe they will. Stranger things have happened.
Since 2000, there have been 55 running backs selected in the second round of drafts. About a quarter of those players (13) ranked in the top 25 at the position in their rookie seasons. That includes immediate stars like Matt Forte and Clinton Portis, and three credible performers from just last season (Jonathan Taylor, D'Andre Swift and J.K. Dobbins). It also includes a couple of guys who started out behind veterans (e.g., Maurice Jones-Drew, who was behind Fred Taylor initially) but put up strong numbers as rookies anyway. That's what I'm expecting from Williams.
| 2ND-ROUND RUNNING BACKS, 2000-2020 (ROOKIE STATS) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pk | Year | Player | Run | No | Rec | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 44 | 2008 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 1238 | 63 | 477 | 12 | 306.5 | 2 |
| 41 | 2020 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 1169 | 36 | 299 | 12 | 254.8 | 6 |
| 51 | 2002 | Clinton Portis, Den. | 1508 | 33 | 364 | 17 | 322.2 | 7 |
| 61 | 2013 | Eddie Lacy, G.B. | 1178 | 35 | 257 | 11 | 244.5 | 8 |
| 60 | 2006 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 941 | 46 | 436 | 16 | 279.7 | 8 |
| 55 | 2014 | Jeremy Hill, Cin. | 1124 | 27 | 215 | 9 | 214.9 | 10 |
| 37 | 2013 | Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 695 | 56 | 514 | 8 | 224.9 | 13 |
| 53 | 2019 | Miles Sanders, Phil. | 818 | 50 | 509 | 6 | 220.7 | 15 |
| 48 | 2013 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 860 | 45 | 399 | 8 | 218.9 | 15 |
| 35 | 2020 | D'Andre Swift, Det. | 521 | 46 | 357 | 10 | 193.8 | 16 |
| 35 | 2018 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 996 | 20 | 149 | 10 | 194.5 | 17 |
| 38 | 2001 | Anthony Thomas, Chi. | 1183 | 22 | 178 | 7 | 202.1 | 17 |
| 55 | 2020 | J.K. Dobbins, Balt. | 805 | 18 | 120 | 9 | 168.5 | 24 |
| 36 | 2015 | T.J. Yeldon, Jac. | 740 | 36 | 279 | 3 | 155.9 | 28 |
| 58 | 2001 | Travis Henry, Buff. | 729 | 22 | 179 | 4 | 136.8 | 30 |
| 43 | 2004 | Julius Jones, Dall. | 819 | 17 | 109 | 7 | 151.8 | 31 |
| 53 | 2009 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 637 | 40 | 308 | 4 | 160.5 | 32 |
| 43 | 2018 | Kerryon Johnson, Det. | 641 | 32 | 213 | 4 | 141.4 | 33 |
| 48 | 2017 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 626 | 30 | 287 | 4 | 145.3 | 33 |
| 34 | 2003 | DeShaun Foster, Car. | 429 | 26 | 207 | 2 | 101.6 | 42 |
| 58 | 2013 | Montee Ball, Den. | 559 | 20 | 145 | 4 | 114.4 | 43 |
| 54 | 2015 | Ameer Abdullah, Det. | 597 | 25 | 183 | 3 | 121.0 | 44 |
| 54 | 2014 | Bishop Sankey, Ten. | 569 | 18 | 133 | 2 | 100.2 | 44 |
| 52 | 2020 | Cam Akers, LAR | 625 | 11 | 123 | 3 | 103.8 | 45 |
| 45 | 2016 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 490 | 13 | 137 | 5 | 105.7 | 45 |
| 55 | 2008 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 454 | 33 | 273 | 0 | 105.7 | 49 |
| 62 | 2011 | Daniel Thomas, Mia. | 581 | 12 | 72 | 1 | 83.3 | 51 |
| 44 | 2005 | J.J. Arrington, Ariz. | 370 | 25 | 139 | 2 | 87.9 | 53 |
| 52 | 2007 | Brian Leonard, St.L. | 303 | 30 | 183 | 0 | 78.6 | 56 |
| 51 | 2010 | Toby Gerhart, Min. | 322 | 21 | 167 | 1 | 75.9 | 58 |
| 57 | 2014 | Carlos Hyde, S.F. | 333 | 12 | 68 | 4 | 76.1 | 61 |
| 56 | 2002 | Ladell Betts, Was. | 307 | 12 | 154 | 1 | 64.1 | 62 |
| 41 | 2004 | Tatum Bell, Den. | 396 | 5 | 80 | 3 | 70.6 | 63 |
| 36 | 2010 | Dexter McCluster, K.C. | 71 | 21 | 209 | 2 | 61.0 | 65 |
| 63 | 2007 | Brandon Jackson, G.B. | 267 | 16 | 130 | 1 | 61.7 | 67 |
| 41 | 2017 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 354 | 11 | 90 | 2 | 67.4 | 72 |
| 45 | 2006 | LenDale White, Ten. | 244 | 14 | 60 | 0 | 44.4 | 72 |
| 49 | 2001 | LaMont Jordan, NYJ | 292 | 7 | 44 | 2 | 52.6 | 72 |
| 62 | 2020 | AJ Dillon, G.B. | 242 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 40.3 | 83 |
| 55 | 2004 | Greg Jones, Jac. | 162 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 38.5 | 83 |
| 38 | 2018 | Ronald Jones, T.B. | 44 | 7 | 33 | 1 | 20.7 | 95 |
| 54 | 2002 | Maurice Morris, Sea. | 153 | 3 | 25 | 1 | 26.8 | 95 |
| 61 | 2012 | LaMichael James, S.F. | 125 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 18.4 | 116 |
| 56 | 2011 | Shane Vereen, N.E. | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11.7 | 123 |
| 50 | 2012 | Isaiah Pead, St.L. | 54 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 10.0 | 130 |
| 62 | 2013 | Christine Michael, Sea. | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.9 | 131 |
| 59 | 2018 | Derrius Guice, Was. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| 57 | 2011 | Mikel Leshoure, Det. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| 38 | 2011 | Ryan Williams, Ariz. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| 58 | 2010 | Ben Tate, Hou. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| 59 | 2010 | Montario Hardesty, Cle. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| 50 | 2007 | Chris Henry, Ten. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| 49 | 2007 | Kenny Irons, Cin. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| 54 | 2005 | Eric Shelton, Car. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| 34 | 2002 | DeShaun Foster, Car. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
One in four odds aren't great. Note that just over half of those second-rounders (29) didn't even rank in the top 50 at the position. That should give some pause before selecting Williams, especially if Gordon is still on the roster. Draft him, and you might need to be patient early on, as was the case a year ago with Dobbins, Swift, Akers and Taylor -- who was helped by Marlon Mack getting injured.
But I think top 30 numbers are reasonable, even if Gordon is still around. Figure Williams maybe starts out as the No. 2, but this is a team that's going to run a lot, and he should have more juice than the veteran. I don't agree with the Week 1 starter prediction, but I think he'll finish with better overall numbers than Gordon, and be the best player in this backfield the second half of the season.
--Andy Richardson