Last week I ran an item about running backs and team wins, looking at how often top (fantasy) running backs come from lesser teams. The results were eye-opening: just a third of top-10 backs came from teams with losing records, even with PPR scoring. People asked, so here are the same numbers for quarterbacks.
These results were also surprising to me, though I guess they shouldn't have been. Quarterbacks rule the NFL landscape, and if you have a top quarterback -- in NFL terms -- your odds of having a great team are a lot higher. That carries over to fantasy; if you have a great fantasy quarterback, it's pretty likely your NFL team will win a lot of games. Even more so than with running backs.
Of the 100 top-10 fantasy quarterbacks (4-point TD passes, 6-point TD runs, 1 point for every 10 rushing or 20 passing yards) from the last decade, more than three-quarters (76) came from teams that finished .500 or better. More than half (53) won at least 10 games. Twelve more came from teams that finished just short of .500 (7-9).
Just 12 out of 100 top-10 fantasy quarterbacks came from teams that won 6 or fewer games. Pretty rare that you'll get a great fantasy passer from an out-and-out bad NFL team. About half (five) of those guys got there due to significant rushing numbers: Newton, Murray, Watson and Bortles twice. If you're determined to draft a quarterback from a team you think will lose a lot of games, at least make sure he's going to run a ton.
TOP-10 QUARTERBACKS, 2011-2020 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Pass | TD | Run | TD | PPR | Rk | W-L |
2015 | Cam Newton, Car. | 3837 | 35 | 636 | 10 | 455.5 | 1 | 15-1 |
2011 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 4643 | 45 | 257 | 3 | 455.9 | 2 | 15-1 |
2020 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 4740 | 38 | 308 | 2 | 437.8 | 4 | 14-2 |
2019 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 3127 | 36 | 1206 | 7 | 463.0 | 1 | 14-2 |
2020 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 4544 | 37 | 421 | 9 | 473.5 | 1 | 13-3 |
2020 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 4299 | 48 | 149 | 3 | 440.25 | 3 | 13-3 |
2018 | Jared Goff, LAR | 4688 | 32 | 108 | 3 | 397.2 | 6 | 13-3 |
2018 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 3992 | 32 | 22 | 4 | 356.9 | 9 | 13-3 |
2017 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 4577 | 32 | 28 | 0 | 363.7 | 3 | 13-3 |
2017 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 3296 | 33 | 299 | 0 | 334.7 | 8 | 13-3 |
2017 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 4251 | 28 | 47 | 0 | 333.3 | 9 | 13-3 |
2016 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 3667 | 23 | 282 | 6 | 339.6 | 10 | 13-3 |
2015 | Carson Palmer, Ariz. | 4671 | 35 | 24 | 1 | 382.0 | 5 | 13-3 |
2013 | Peyton Manning, Den. | 5477 | 55 | -31 | 1 | 498.8 | 1 | 13-3 |
2013 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 3357 | 26 | 539 | 1 | 331.8 | 10 | 13-3 |
2012 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 4719 | 32 | 141 | 1 | 384.1 | 5 | 13-3 |
2012 | Peyton Manning, Den. | 4659 | 37 | 6 | 0 | 383.6 | 6 | 13-3 |
2011 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 5476 | 46 | 86 | 1 | 478.4 | 1 | 13-3 |
2011 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 5235 | 39 | 109 | 3 | 446.7 | 4 | 13-3 |
2020 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 4212 | 40 | 513 | 2 | 435.9 | 6 | 12-4 |
2019 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 4031 | 26 | 218 | 2 | 341.4 | 10 | 12-4 |
2018 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 5097 | 50 | 272 | 2 | 496.1 | 1 | 12-4 |
2018 | Philip Rivers, LAC | 4308 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 354.1 | 10 | 12-4 |
2015 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 4770 | 36 | 53 | 3 | 410.4 | 2 | 12-4 |
2014 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 4381 | 38 | 269 | 2 | 412.0 | 2 | 12-4 |
2014 | Peyton Manning, Den. | 4727 | 39 | -24 | 0 | 394.0 | 3 | 12-4 |
2014 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 3475 | 20 | 849 | 6 | 379.4 | 6 | 12-4 |
2013 | Cam Newton, Car. | 3379 | 24 | 585 | 6 | 359.5 | 5 | 12-4 |
2012 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 4827 | 34 | 32 | 4 | 404.6 | 3 | 12-4 |
2020 | Tom Brady, T.B. | 4633 | 40 | 6 | 3 | 410.25 | 7 | 11-5 |
2020 | Ryan Tannehill, Ten. | 3819 | 33 | 266 | 7 | 398.55 | 8 | 11-5 |
2020 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 2757 | 26 | 1005 | 7 | 386.35 | 10 | 11-5 |
2019 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 4110 | 31 | 342 | 3 | 383.7 | 5 | 11-5 |
2018 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 4165 | 26 | 551 | 5 | 397.4 | 5 | 11-5 |
2017 | Cam Newton, Car. | 3302 | 22 | 754 | 6 | 366.5 | 2 | 11-5 |
2016 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 4944 | 38 | 117 | 0 | 414.9 | 3 | 11-5 |
2014 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 4761 | 40 | 273 | 3 | 443.4 | 1 | 11-5 |
2014 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 4952 | 32 | 27 | 0 | 383.7 | 5 | 11-5 |
2013 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 5162 | 39 | 52 | 3 | 437.3 | 2 | 11-5 |
2013 | Andy Dalton, Cin. | 4293 | 33 | 183 | 2 | 377.0 | 3 | 11-5 |
2013 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 3822 | 23 | 377 | 4 | 352.8 | 7 | 11-5 |
2012 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 4295 | 39 | 259 | 2 | 411.6 | 2 | 11-5 |
2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 4374 | 23 | 255 | 5 | 366.2 | 9 | 11-5 |
2019 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 3852 | 26 | 413 | 8 | 389.5 | 4 | 10-6 |
2019 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 3089 | 20 | 510 | 9 | 345.5 | 8 | 10-6 |
2018 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 4593 | 39 | 148 | 0 | 405.9 | 4 | 10-6 |
2017 | Alex Smith, K.C. | 4042 | 26 | 355 | 1 | 347.6 | 6 | 10-6 |
2016 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 4428 | 40 | 369 | 4 | 446.3 | 1 | 10-6 |
2015 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 4024 | 34 | 553 | 1 | 398.5 | 4 | 10-6 |
2015 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 3821 | 31 | 344 | 1 | 363.5 | 8 | 10-6 |
2012 | Robert Griffin, Was. | 3200 | 20 | 815 | 7 | 363.5 | 10 | 10-6 |
2011 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 5038 | 41 | 78 | 0 | 427.7 | 5 | 10-6 |
2011 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 4177 | 29 | 84 | 2 | 345.3 | 8 | 10-6 |
2018 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 5129 | 34 | 98 | 3 | 429.2 | 2 | 9-6-1 |
2019 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 4039 | 27 | 243 | 1 | 344.3 | 9 | 9-7 |
2017 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 3983 | 34 | 586 | 3 | 415.8 | 1 | 9-7 |
2017 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 4446 | 29 | 98 | 0 | 352.1 | 5 | 9-7 |
2017 | Philip Rivers, LAC | 4515 | 28 | -2 | 0 | 337.6 | 7 | 9-7 |
2017 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 3324 | 22 | 357 | 6 | 325.9 | 10 | 9-7 |
2016 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 4327 | 24 | 207 | 2 | 347.1 | 8 | 9-7 |
2016 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 4090 | 28 | 165 | 1 | 345.0 | 9 | 9-7 |
2015 | Kirk Cousins, Was. | 4166 | 29 | 48 | 5 | 363.1 | 10 | 9-7 |
2014 | Philip Rivers, S.D. | 4286 | 31 | 102 | 0 | 348.5 | 9 | 9-7 |
2013 | Philip Rivers, S.D. | 4478 | 32 | 72 | 0 | 358.2 | 6 | 9-7 |
2011 | Eli Manning, NYG | 4933 | 29 | 15 | 1 | 370.2 | 6 | 9-7 |
2018 | Kirk Cousins, Min. | 4298 | 30 | 123 | 1 | 360.1 | 8 | 8-7-1 |
2016 | Kirk Cousins, Was. | 4917 | 25 | 96 | 4 | 379.5 | 5 | 8-7-1 |
2020 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 3971 | 26 | 819 | 11 | 450.45 | 2 | 8-8 |
2019 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 4902 | 30 | 277 | 3 | 412.8 | 3 | 8-8 |
2016 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 4240 | 31 | 341 | 2 | 386.1 | 4 | 8-8 |
2014 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 4045 | 27 | 311 | 1 | 348.0 | 10 | 8-8 |
2013 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 4261 | 28 | 99 | 1 | 341.5 | 8 | 8-8 |
2012 | Tony Romo, Dall. | 4903 | 28 | 49 | 1 | 373.0 | 7 | 8-8 |
2011 | Philip Rivers, S.D. | 4624 | 27 | 36 | 1 | 350.8 | 7 | 8-8 |
2011 | Tony Romo, Dall. | 4184 | 31 | 46 | 1 | 343.8 | 9 | 8-8 |
2011 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 3474 | 26 | 103 | 6 | 324.0 | 10 | 8-8 |
2020 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 4336 | 31 | 234 | 5 | 398.2 | 9 | 7-9 |
2019 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 5109 | 33 | 250 | 1 | 426.5 | 2 | 7-9 |
2019 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 4466 | 26 | 147 | 1 | 350.0 | 7 | 7-9 |
2018 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 4924 | 35 | 125 | 4 | 428.2 | 3 | 7-9 |
2017 | Kirk Cousins, Was. | 4093 | 27 | 179 | 4 | 354.6 | 4 | 7-9 |
2016 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 5208 | 37 | 20 | 2 | 422.4 | 2 | 7-9 |
2015 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 4870 | 32 | 14 | 1 | 378.9 | 6 | 7-9 |
2015 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 4262 | 32 | 159 | 1 | 363.4 | 9 | 7-9 |
2014 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 4952 | 33 | 68 | 1 | 393.5 | 4 | 7-9 |
2013 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 4650 | 29 | 69 | 2 | 371.4 | 4 | 7-9 |
2012 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 5177 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 437.4 | 1 | 7-9 |
2012 | Cam Newton, Car. | 3869 | 19 | 741 | 8 | 392.2 | 4 | 7-9 |
2018 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 4442 | 25 | 269 | 2 | 367.0 | 7 | 6-9-1 |
2015 | Eli Manning, NYG | 4432 | 35 | 61 | 0 | 367.7 | 7 | 6-10 |
2014 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 4694 | 28 | 145 | 0 | 363.2 | 7 | 6-10 |
2014 | Eli Manning, NYG | 4410 | 30 | 31 | 1 | 349.6 | 8 | 6-10 |
2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 4051 | 21 | 706 | 14 | 448.9 | 3 | 6-10 |
2019 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 3722 | 20 | 544 | 4 | 350.5 | 6 | 5-10-1 |
2016 | Philip Rivers, S.D. | 4386 | 33 | 35 | 0 | 354.8 | 6 | 5-11 |
2015 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 4428 | 35 | 310 | 2 | 406.4 | 3 | 5-11 |
2020 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 4823 | 33 | 444 | 3 | 437.55 | 5 | 4-12 |
2013 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 4515 | 26 | 55 | 0 | 335.3 | 9 | 4-12 |
2012 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 4967 | 20 | 126 | 4 | 368.3 | 8 | 4-12 |
2016 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 3905 | 23 | 359 | 4 | 354.2 | 7 | 3-13 |
Top-10 numbers this year from Joe Burrow, Matt Ryan or Trevor Lawrence? Maybe Lawrence if he runs a lot. The other guys, with it looking very optimistic that their teams will be contenders, seem much less likely.