I will be interested to see what the 49ers do with Trey Lance. They coughed up three first-round picks to get him, so presumably they’re pretty confident he can be a difference-making kind of guy.
Lance should be a top-5 runner once they get him worked into the offense. He ran for 1,100 yards and 14 TDs in his one full season at North Dakota State (that’s in 16 games, and at a lower level of competition, but he can definitely run). That mobility could help lift San Francisco’s offense to new heights – it’s another dimension defenses will need to worry about.
I’m not confident that Lance will step on the field in September. Jimmy Garoppolo is their first-string quarterback for now, and he’s not chopped liver. He’s got some ability and a lot more experience, so I believe we’ll see him open the season as their starter. And if he’s playing well and winning games, there will be no pressing need to make a change.
At this time of year, I’m going through some of my various charts, updating the numbers. As I was polishing up Shanahan’s bio, I am reminded that he hasn’t been as awesome as you might expect. As a coordinator or head coach, he’s helped four different franchises rank in the top 10 in scoring (Houston, Washington, Atlanta and San Francisco). That’s cool. But I also see that only three of Shanahan’s last 11 games have ranked higher than 20th in scoring.
Shanahan had a big season with Robert Griffin III in 2012 (notable, with Trey Lance having some of the same mobility traits), but since that time, only two of Shanahan’s last eight offenses have ranked higher than 20th in scoring.
In general, I see Lance as more of a long-term guy. I doubt that I will select him in any 2021 season draft. There are guys at other positions I like more in the late rounds. I don’t think we’re going to see Lance having an RGIII type impact as a rookie.
| KYLE SHANAHAN'S OFFENSES | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | W-L | Pts | Rk | Run | TDR | Pass | TDP |
| 2008 | Houston | 8-8 | 22.9 | 17 | 115 | 16 | 280 | 21 |
| 2009 | Houston | 9-7 | 24.3 | 10 | 92 | 13 | 300 | 29 |
| 2010 | Washington | 6-10 | 18.9 | 25 | 91 | 9 | 267 | 21 |
| 2011 | Washington | 5-11 | 18.0 | 26 | 101 | 8 | 254 | 19 |
| 2012 | Washington | 10-6 | 27.3 | 4 | 169 | 22 | 229 | 24 |
| 2013 | Washington | 3-13 | 20.9 | 23 | 135 | 14 | 254 | 20 |
| 2014 | Cleveland | 7-9 | 18.7 | 27 | 108 | 17 | 217 | 12 |
| 2015 | Atlanta | 8-8 | 21.2 | 21T | 100 | 13 | 288 | 21 |
| 2016 | Atlanta | 11-5 | 33.8 | 1 | 121 | 20 | 310 | 38 |
| 2017 | San Francisco | 6-10 | 20.7 | 20 | 104 | 15 | 265 | 15 |
| 2018 | San Francisco | 4-12 | 21.4 | 21 | 119 | 7 | 265 | 26 |
| 2019 | San Francisco | 13-3 | 29.9 | 2 | 144 | 23 | 252 | 28 |
| 2020 | San Francisco | 6-10 | 23.5 | 21 | 118 | 19 | 270 | 25 |
| '11-20 | Last 10 tms | 73-87 | 23.5 | 17 | 122 | 16 | 260 | 23 |
—Ian Allan