Ryan Fitzpatrick tends to be dismissed as an erratic risk taker, but is that actually the case? Is he, in fact, a lesser quarterback? Or is he simply an underrated quarterback?
On these kind of things, I like to roll out the numbers occasionally, checking the general consensus against what’s actually happening.
With Fitzpatrick, there is a tendency to see a healthy number of interceptions. He’s taking more chances than most quarterbacks, and mixing in more throws that are simply ill-advised. The last nine times he’s started at least half of a season, he’s ranked in the top 20 in interceptions in only one of those years (with Houston back in 2014). Otherwise, he’s ranked in the bottom 10 in interception rate pretty much every year.
Fitzpatrick has started 110 games in the last 10 years, and he’s thrown 121 picks in those games. So for teams looking to prioritize taking care of the ball, he’s not a really a fit with that mindset. I wonder if that will cause some friction in Washington, with that team having a good defense. It will be hard to put together long drives against that group, so if Fitzpatrick gives away a couple of games with dumb turnovers at his own end of the field, that might contribute to that coaching staff souring on him.
Interceptions, of course, aren’t everything. Fitzpatrick has averaged a credible 238 passing yards per start over the last 10 years, with 167 touchdowns in those 110 games. In a typical 16-game season, he’s put up an average of 24 touchdowns versus 18 interceptions.
With his playing style, Fitzpatrick has some ability to bring wide receivers to life. Brandon Marshall had a huge season with him in New York. In Miami, DeVante Parker was a lot more effective with Fitzpatrick then when Tua Tagovailoa was playing. With Fitzpatrick starting for Washington, it makes me more interested in Terry McLaurin.
FITZPATRICK: PER-START PASSING NUMBERS | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | St | Yards | TDP | Int | Rk |
2005 | St. Louis | 3 | 156 | .33 | 2.33 | -- |
2008 | Cincinnati | 12 | 159 | .67 | .75 | 16 |
2009 | Buffalo | 8 | 163 | 1.00 | 1.13 | 26 |
2010 | Buffalo | 13 | 231 | 1.77 | 1.15 | 24 |
2011 | Buffalo | 16 | 240 | 1.50 | 1.44 | 30 |
2012 | Buffalo | 16 | 213 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 21 |
2013 | Tennessee | 9 | 231 | 1.22 | 1.33 | 29 |
2014 | Houston | 12 | 207 | 1.42 | .67 | 9 |
2015 | NY Jets | 16 | 244 | 1.94 | .94 | 26 |
2016 | NY Jets | 11 | 220 | 1.00 | 1.27 | 30 |
2017 | Tampa Bay | 3 | 248 | 1.00 | .33 | -- |
2018 | Tampa Bay | 7 | 310 | 2.14 | 1.71 | -- |
2019 | Miami | 13 | 259 | 1.46 | 1.00 | 24 |
2020 | Miami | 7 | 256 | 1.71 | 1.00 | -- |
Over the last five years, 29 quarterbacks have started at least half of the time (at least 40 of a possible 80 starts). Of that group, Fitzpatrick ranks next-to-last in interception rate, ahead of only Jameis Winston. But he’s also ranked 16th among those 29 in average per-game production (using standard fantasy scoring).
QUARTERBACKS PER GAME (last 5 years) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | St | Pass | TDP | Int | Run | TDR | FPG |
Aaron Rodgers | 71 | 265.4 | 2.18 | .34 | 15.4 | .14 | 24.6 |
Alex Smith | 46 | 237.9 | 1.22 | .50 | 14.3 | .15 | 19.2 |
Patrick Mahomes | 46 | 307.7 | 2.48 | .52 | 17.6 | .13 | 28.1 |
Tom Brady | 76 | 278.6 | 2.01 | .54 | 2.2 | .11 | 22.9 |
Drew Brees | 70 | 277.9 | 2.04 | .54 | .7 | .16 | 23.1 |
Dak Prescott | 69 | 255.6 | 1.54 | .58 | 19.0 | .36 | 23.1 |
Russell Wilson | 80 | 249.7 | 2.01 | .59 | 26.0 | .13 | 24.0 |
Derek Carr | 78 | 251.8 | 1.50 | .59 | 5.2 | .08 | 19.8 |
Matthew Stafford | 72 | 265.7 | 1.65 | .64 | 7.7 | .03 | 21.0 |
Matt Ryan | 79 | 291.3 | 1.84 | .65 | 7.9 | .09 | 23.4 |
Ryan Tannehill | 50 | 227.8 | 1.82 | .66 | 15.1 | .26 | 21.9 |
Deshaun Watson | 53 | 272.4 | 1.94 | .66 | 31.3 | .34 | 26.7 |
Kirk Cousins | 79 | 268.1 | 1.81 | .68 | 7.8 | .14 | 22.5 |
Marcus Mariota | 49 | 209.5 | 1.16 | .69 | 22.4 | .18 | 18.5 |
Josh Allen | 43 | 224.0 | 1.56 | .72 | 35.7 | .60 | 24.8 |
Carson Wentz | 68 | 247.2 | 1.66 | .74 | 15.6 | .12 | 21.7 |
Mitchell Trubisky | 50 | 212.2 | 1.28 | .74 | 21.1 | .16 | 19.1 |
Joe Flacco | 53 | 237.6 | 1.17 | .79 | 3.8 | .06 | 17.5 |
Jared Goff | 69 | 263.3 | 1.55 | .80 | 4.6 | .14 | 20.8 |
Case Keenum | 47 | 234.4 | 1.23 | .81 | 6.3 | .09 | 17.8 |
Andy Dalton | 65 | 240.7 | 1.45 | .82 | 8.8 | .12 | 19.5 |
Ben Roethlisberger | 62 | 279.9 | 2.00 | .87 | 2.9 | .06 | 23.0 |
Cam Newton | 62 | 216.7 | 1.18 | .87 | 35.3 | .45 | 22.0 |
Eli Manning | 51 | 251.7 | 1.41 | .88 | .9 | .04 | 18.7 |
Blake Bortles | 44 | 233.4 | 1.30 | .91 | 23.2 | .16 | 20.4 |
Philip Rivers | 80 | 274.9 | 1.75 | .93 | .8 | .00 | 21.0 |
Baker Mayfield | 45 | 242.5 | 1.67 | .96 | 9.8 | .09 | 20.4 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | 41 | 256.1 | 1.46 | 1.15 | 16.4 | .20 | 21.7 |
Jameis Winston | 54 | 284.3 | 1.78 | 1.30 | 15.0 | .07 | 23.6 |
—Ian Allan