Factoid

July 09, 2021

Tua Tagovailoa

Can Miami hit on more downfield passes?

Tua Tagovailoa didn’t have much such getting the ball downfield as a rookie, averaging only 9.7 yards per completion. Does this mean that he’ll never be a successful deep-ball thrower? Or is there some chance of him turning things around?

The Dolphins, after all, have pumped a lot of speed into their wide receiver group. They signed Will Fuller, who at times has been about effective as anyone at getting downfield for chunk plays. And they selected Jaylen Waddle with the 6th pick of the draft. With his speed, he can score long touchdowns, either by getting behind defenses or by turning short catches into big plays.

And not to forgotten is DeVante Parker. He’s not as fast, but he’s bigger, friendlier target who at times has looked like one of the league’s top dozen receivers. Parker really ripped up the league in the second half of the 2019 season.

Some of Tagovailoa’s struggles last year can be tied to his playing style. As a rookie, it looked like he was just trying to avoid mistakes, settling for short, safe throws underneath. He’ll presumably be more willing to take chances in his second year. (This was the same theory with Drew Lock heading into last season; it didn’t go well for him.)

If we’re going off what we’ve seen on tape, it doesn’t look good. Tagovailoa is a small quarterback with limited mobility, and it doesn’t look like he has much of an arm. If you took the 32 starting quarterbacks to a field and asked them to throw the ball as far as they can, Tua doesn’t look like he’d be able to outperform much of anyone.

I poked around with the numbers some on this, looking at stats from the last 20 years. Considering only quarterbacks who started at least half of the season, there are 80 who ranked outside the 25 in average yards per completion – after length of throws – and who then came back and started at least half of the next season.

Only 4 of those 80 quarterbacks who ranked outside the top 25 were able to come back and rank in the top 5 the next season. And I see 25 of 80 (almost a third) who at least ranked above average. In the chart below, the four in the top 5 are tagged with two dots (••). The other 21 ranking between 6th and 15th are tagged with one black dot.

There have been 14 quarterbacks who’ve averaged under 10 yards per completion (like Tua). Of that group, 2008 Chad Pennington moved up to 15th, while 2018 Carson Wentz improved from 28th to 3rd. Like Tua, Wentz was in his second season.

Of the 80 quarterbacks listed below, over half (43) ranked 20th or lower again the next season, and that’s what I’m expecting we’ll see this year.

Not listed, there are another 52 quarterbacks who ranked outside the top 25 in yards per completion but who didn’t start at least eight games the following year.

SHORT-RANGE PASSERS
Year	Player	Avg	Rk	Next	Rk
2011	Andy Dalton, Cin.	11.33	26	11.15	27
2011	• Mark Sanchez, NYJ	11.28	27	11.72	12
2012	• Andy Dalton, Cin.	11.15	27	11.83	11
2012	Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buff.	11.11	28	11.31	21
2004	• Byron Leftwich, Jac.	11.01	26	12.13	9
2015	• Kirk Cousins, Was.	10.99	26	12.11	7
2015	•• Philip Rivers, S.D.	10.97	27	12.57	3
2003	Kyle Boller, Balt.	10.86	26	9.92	31
2014	Drew Brees, N.O.	10.86	26	11.38	18
2011	Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buff.	10.86	29	11.11	28
2008	Marc Bulger, St.L.	10.84	27	10.49	29
2013	Joe Flacco, Balt.	10.81	28	11.59	17
2008	• David Garrard, Jac.	10.81	28	11.46	15
2009	• Matt Cassel, K.C.	10.79	26	11.89	13
2008	Peyton Manning, Ind.	10.79	29	11.45	16
2014	Alex Smith, K.C.	10.78	27	11.36	20
2015	Sam Bradford, Phil.	10.77	30	9.82	31
2013	Alex Smith, K.C.	10.76	29	10.78	27
2006	Chad Pennington, NYJ	10.71	26	9.86	29
2015	Matthew Stafford, Det.	10.71	32	11.15	20
2011	Matt Cassel, K.C.	10.71	30	11.16	26
2016	• Alex Smith, K.C.	10.68	26	11.85	8
2012	• Philip Rivers, S.D.	10.67	29	11.85	10
2019	Kyler Murray, Ariz.	10.66	26	10.59	22
2019	Daniel Jones, NYG	10.66	27	10.51	24
2018	Derek Carr, Oak.	10.63	27	11.23	18
2018	Joe Flacco, Balt.	10.63	28	10.65	28
2016	• Blake Bortles, Jac.	10.61	27	11.70	12
2001	Rich Gannon, Oak.	10.60	26	11.22	16
2019	Drew Brees, N.O.	10.60	29	10.70	20
2011	Blaine Gabbert, Jac.	10.54	31	10.26	30
2000	• Tony Banks, Balt.	10.52	28	12.05	9
2009	Chad Henne, Mia.	10.50	28	10.97	26
2015	Joe Flacco, Balt.	10.49	33	9.90	29
2002	• Jake Plummer, Ariz.	10.46	26	11.54	14
2009	Alex Smith, S.F.	10.44	30	11.62	20
2003	Drew Bledsoe, Buff.	10.44	29	11.45	20
2005	Brett Favre, G.B.	10.43	27	11.33	19
2004	Steve McNair, Ten.	10.41	29	10.83	23
2002	Tim Couch, Cle.	10.41	27	10.99	22
2019	Carson Wentz, Phil.	10.41	30	10.44	26
2014	• Blake Bortles, Jac.	10.39	29	12.47	6
2011	•• Josh Freeman, T.B.	10.38	32	13.28	2
2010	• Matt Ryan, Atl.	10.38	29	12.04	14
2009	Matt Hasselbeck, Sea.	10.34	31	11.28	24
2014	• Ryan Tannehill, Mia.	10.32	30	11.59	14
2010	Drew Brees, N.O.	10.31	30	11.70	20
2014	• Jay Cutler, Chi.	10.30	31	11.77	11
2008	Jason Campbell, Was.	10.30	30	11.06	23
2018	•• Matthew Stafford, Det.	10.29	31	13.36	3
2013	Matt Ryan, Atl.	10.28	33	11.31	20
2003	• Drew Brees, S.D.	10.28	30	12.06	15
2001	Brian Griese, Den.	10.28	28	11.04	18
2001	Jon Kitna, Cin.	10.27	29	10.81	21
2000	Jon Kitna, Sea.	10.26	30	10.27	29
2002	Drew Brees, S.D.	10.26	28	10.28	30
2005	Brad Johnson, Min.	10.24	29	10.19	29
2000	Donovan McNabb, Phil.	10.20	31	11.34	20
2002	• Jeff Garcia, S.F.	10.20	29	12.02	8
2008	• Brett Favre, NYJ	10.12	31	11.58	13
2004	Mark Brunell, Was.	10.12	30	11.64	18
2018	• Kirk Cousins, Min.	10.11	32	11.74	12
2002	Tom Brady, N.E.	10.09	30	11.42	17
2001	Jim Miller, Chi.	10.08	30	10.80	22
2007	• Drew Brees, N.O.	10.05	28	12.27	6
2006	Joey Harrington, Mia.	10.03	31	10.30	27
2001	Brad Johnson, T.B.	10.02	31	10.85	19
2016	•• Carson Wentz, Phil.	9.98	28	12.44	3
2010	Sam Bradford, St.L.	9.92	32	11.33	25
2004	Kyle Boller, Balt.	9.92	31	10.52	26
2016	Joe Flacco, Balt.	9.90	29	8.92	29
2007	• Chad Pennington, NYJ	9.86	29	11.38	15
2017	Eli Manning, NYG	9.85	27	11.31	16
2012	Christian Ponder, Min.	9.78	32	10.84	27
2020	Tua Tagovailoa, Mia.	9.75	31	?	?
2005	David Carr, Hou.	9.72	32	9.16	34
2019	Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.	9.63	32	10.33	27
2014	Derek Carr, Oak.	9.40	32	11.39	17
2003	Joey Harrington, Det.	9.32	31	11.12	23
2017	Joe Flacco, Balt.	8.92	29	10.63	28
2008	Ryan Fitzpatrick, Cin.	8.62	32	11.20	20

—Ian Allan

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