The hit average on wide receivers selected in the second round hasn’t been great, but it’s at least been on the rise in recent years, with guys like DK Metcalf, A.J. Brown, Chase Claypool and Tee Higgins.

Looking bigger picture, the outlook hasn’t been as good. Since 2000, 96 wide receivers have been selected with second-round picks. Only 12 of those players finished with top-30 numbers (PPR) in their first season, and only another 12 ranked in the top 50. That’s 24 out of 96, which works out to exactly 25 percent.

But it’s been a little higher recently. In four of the last five seasons, multiple wide receivers selected in the second round have finished with top-40 numbers. When a receiver makes the top 40, there are some decent, usuable numbers at play.

In the chart below, players finishing with top-40 stats are tagged with black dots.

2016• Sterling Shepard, NYG40656838184.436
2016• Michael Thomas, N.O.47921,1379259.77
2016Tyler Boyd, Cin.55546031126.163
2017Zay Jones, Buff.3727316270.687
2017Curtis Samuel, Car.4015115032.9126
2017• JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt.62589178197.720
2018Courtland Sutton, Den.40427044136.350
2018Dante Pettis, S.F.44274675103.571
2018Christian Kirk, Ariz.47435903123.558
2018Anthony Miller, Chi.51334237120.360
2018James Washington, Pitt.6016217143.7125
2018DJ Chark, Jac.6114174031.4141
2019• Deebo Samuel, S.F.36578026191.131
2019• A.J. Brown, Ten.51521,0519217.122
2019Mecole Hardman, K.C.56265387123.559
2019J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Phil.5710169132.9136
2019Parris Campbell, Ind.5918127140.1121
2019Andy Isabella, Ariz.629189135.4131
2019• DK Metcalf, Sea.64589007193.129
2020• Tee Higgins, Cin.33679086196.628
2020Michael Pittman, Ind.3440503198.980
2020Laviska Shenault, Jac.42586005157.146
2020KJ Hamler, Den.4630381390.188
2020• Chase Claypool, Pitt.496287311216.923
2020Van Jefferson, LAR5719220146.9122
2020Denzel Mims, NYJ5923357060.7107
2021Elijah Moore, NYJ34?????
2021Rondale Moore, Ariz.49?????
2021D'Wayne Eskridge, Sea.56?????
2021Tutu Atwell, LAR57?????
2021Terrace Marshall, Car.59?????

As for the 2021, I don’t see a guy that I’m excited about for this season. I liked Elijah Moore (pictured) some earlier, but now that Jamison Crowder is coming back for the Jets, I expect Moore will start off as a reserve.

Rondale Moore and Tutu Atwell are awfully small, and they’re going to teams with crowded receiving situations.

If a second-round receiver is going to hit this year, perhaps Terrace Marshall. They passed a lot in Carolina last year, with three wide receivers putting up good numbers, and one of those guys (Curtis Samuel) is gone. If Marshall can beat out David Moore (who was a third receiver in Seattle last year), he could have a decent role. But as it stands, I doubt that I’ll be selecting a second-round receiver.

—Ian Allan