The hit average on wide receivers selected in the second round hasn’t been great, but it’s at least been on the rise in recent years, with guys like DK Metcalf, A.J. Brown, Chase Claypool and Tee Higgins.
Looking bigger picture, the outlook hasn’t been as good. Since 2000, 96 wide receivers have been selected with second-round picks. Only 12 of those players finished with top-30 numbers (PPR) in their first season, and only another 12 ranked in the top 50. That’s 24 out of 96, which works out to exactly 25 percent.
But it’s been a little higher recently. In four of the last five seasons, multiple wide receivers selected in the second round have finished with top-40 numbers. When a receiver makes the top 40, there are some decent, usuable numbers at play.
In the chart below, players finishing with top-40 stats are tagged with black dots.
|SECOND-ROUND WIDE RECEIVERS (last 5 years)|
|2016||• Sterling Shepard, NYG||40||65||683||8||184.4||36|
|2016||• Michael Thomas, N.O.||47||92||1,137||9||259.7||7|
|2016||Tyler Boyd, Cin.||55||54||603||1||126.1||63|
|2017||Zay Jones, Buff.||37||27||316||2||70.6||87|
|2017||Curtis Samuel, Car.||40||15||115||0||32.9||126|
|2017||• JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt.||62||58||917||8||197.7||20|
|2018||Courtland Sutton, Den.||40||42||704||4||136.3||50|
|2018||Dante Pettis, S.F.||44||27||467||5||103.5||71|
|2018||Christian Kirk, Ariz.||47||43||590||3||123.5||58|
|2018||Anthony Miller, Chi.||51||33||423||7||120.3||60|
|2018||James Washington, Pitt.||60||16||217||1||43.7||125|
|2018||DJ Chark, Jac.||61||14||174||0||31.4||141|
|2019||• Deebo Samuel, S.F.||36||57||802||6||191.1||31|
|2019||• A.J. Brown, Ten.||51||52||1,051||9||217.1||22|
|2019||Mecole Hardman, K.C.||56||26||538||7||123.5||59|
|2019||J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Phil.||57||10||169||1||32.9||136|
|2019||Parris Campbell, Ind.||59||18||127||1||40.1||121|
|2019||Andy Isabella, Ariz.||62||9||189||1||35.4||131|
|2019||• DK Metcalf, Sea.||64||58||900||7||193.1||29|
|2020||• Tee Higgins, Cin.||33||67||908||6||196.6||28|
|2020||Michael Pittman, Ind.||34||40||503||1||98.9||80|
|2020||Laviska Shenault, Jac.||42||58||600||5||157.1||46|
|2020||KJ Hamler, Den.||46||30||381||3||90.1||88|
|2020||• Chase Claypool, Pitt.||49||62||873||11||216.9||23|
|2020||Van Jefferson, LAR||57||19||220||1||46.9||122|
|2020||Denzel Mims, NYJ||59||23||357||0||60.7||107|
|2021||Elijah Moore, NYJ||34||?||?||?||?||?|
|2021||Rondale Moore, Ariz.||49||?||?||?||?||?|
|2021||D'Wayne Eskridge, Sea.||56||?||?||?||?||?|
|2021||Tutu Atwell, LAR||57||?||?||?||?||?|
|2021||Terrace Marshall, Car.||59||?||?||?||?||?|
As for the 2021, I don’t see a guy that I’m excited about for this season. I liked Elijah Moore (pictured) some earlier, but now that Jamison Crowder is coming back for the Jets, I expect Moore will start off as a reserve.
Rondale Moore and Tutu Atwell are awfully small, and they’re going to teams with crowded receiving situations.
If a second-round receiver is going to hit this year, perhaps Terrace Marshall. They passed a lot in Carolina last year, with three wide receivers putting up good numbers, and one of those guys (Curtis Samuel) is gone. If Marshall can beat out David Moore (who was a third receiver in Seattle last year), he could have a decent role. But as it stands, I doubt that I’ll be selecting a second-round receiver.