If Trevor Lawrence is anywhere near as good as most tend to think he is, Jacksonville should have one of the league’s most improved offenses. That’s how it tends to play out when teams add a notable quarterback.
As one way to look at it, 15 teams in the last 10 years have had a rookie quarterback who put up at least 20 touchdowns (combined touchdowns – rushing and passing). And those teams tended to score more points while generating more yards and touchdowns.
Of the 15 teams, 12 won more games. Thirteen scored more points, and 13 of those offenses scored more touchdowns. Twelve of these offenses gained more yards.
Collectively, these teams averaged 3.1 more wins and 78 more points. The offenses averaged 11.1 more touchdowns and 38 more yards per game.
Jacksonville went just 1-15 last year, so a jump of 3-plus wins shouldn’t be too difficult (particularly with a pair of games against Houston).
It won’t be as easy for Jacksonville’s offense in general to improve. It managed a credible 34 touchdowns last year, making it within range of the league average. And Jacksonville ranked 19th in passing last year, at 247 yards per game. The Jaguars weren’t as impressive running, down at 95 yards per game (more than only four other teams).
In the chart below, the numbers don’t show the individual player’s stats. They show how much his team improved in each category – wins, total points, offensive touchdowns and offensive yards.
| BETTER QUARTERBACKS = BETTER OFFENSE | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Win | Pts | TD | Yd/G |
| 2011 | Andy Dalton, Cin. | 5 | 22 | -3 | -14 |
| 2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 4 | 210 | 31 | 126 |
| 2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 9 | 114 | 12 | 77 |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin, Was. | 5 | 148 | 19 | 44 |
| 2012 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 4 | 91 | 13 | 38 |
| 2014 | Derek Carr, Oak. | -1 | -69 | -7 | -70 |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 4 | 65 | 6 | 96 |
| 2015 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 1 | 45 | 9 | 32 |
| 2016 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 9 | 146 | 25 | 39 |
| 2017 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | -5 | 59 | 13 | 13 |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 7.5 | 125 | 18 | 56 |
| 2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | -1 | -28 | 5 | -19 |
| 2019 | Gardner Minshew, Jac. | 1 | 55 | 5 | 36 |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 2.5 | 136 | 14 | 98 |
| 2020 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 2 | 47 | 7 | 14 |
| 2020 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan