If Trevor Lawrence is anywhere near as good as most tend to think he is, Jacksonville should have one of the league’s most improved offenses. That’s how it tends to play out when teams add a notable quarterback.

As one way to look at it, 15 teams in the last 10 years have had a rookie quarterback who put up at least 20 touchdowns (combined touchdowns – rushing and passing). And those teams tended to score more points while generating more yards and touchdowns.

Of the 15 teams, 12 won more games. Thirteen scored more points, and 13 of those offenses scored more touchdowns. Twelve of these offenses gained more yards.

Collectively, these teams averaged 3.1 more wins and 78 more points. The offenses averaged 11.1 more touchdowns and 38 more yards per game.

Jacksonville went just 1-15 last year, so a jump of 3-plus wins shouldn’t be too difficult (particularly with a pair of games against Houston).

It won’t be as easy for Jacksonville’s offense in general to improve. It managed a credible 34 touchdowns last year, making it within range of the league average. And Jacksonville ranked 19th in passing last year, at 247 yards per game. The Jaguars weren’t as impressive running, down at 95 yards per game (more than only four other teams).

In the chart below, the numbers don’t show the individual player’s stats. They show how much his team improved in each category – wins, total points, offensive touchdowns and offensive yards.

2011Andy Dalton, Cin.522-3-14
2011Cam Newton, Car.421031126
2012Andrew Luck, Ind.91141277
2012Robert Griffin, Was.51481944
2012Russell Wilson, Sea.4911338
2014Derek Carr, Oak.-1-69-7-70
2015Jameis Winston, T.B.465696
2015Marcus Mariota, Ten.145932
2016Dak Prescott, Dall.91462539
2017Deshaun Watson, Hou.-5591313
2018Baker Mayfield, Cle.7.51251856
2019Daniel Jones, NYG-1-285-19
2019Gardner Minshew, Jac.155536
2019Kyler Murray, Ariz.2.51361498
2020Justin Herbert, LAC247714
2020Trevor Lawrence, Jac.????

—Ian Allan