There's plenty of uncertainty with Baltimore's receiving corps, with Marquise Brown, Sammy Watkins, Devin Duvernay and Rashod Bateman all vying to be No. 1 or 2 wideouts. But since Baltimore likes to use two tight ends, I'm wondering if there can be a second player of value at that position.
Back in March the Ravens sent the Jaguars a conditional draft pick for Josh Oliver. Oliver was the previous Jacksonville regime's 3rd-round pick in 2019; as a senior at San Jose State, Oliver caught 56 passes for 709 yards and 4 touchdowns. But it's understandable Urban Meyer and company were ready to move on. Oliver spent most of his rookie season on injured reserve, then all of last year after breaking his foot. Two years in, he's done nothing.
But the Jaguars have a crowded (albeit suspect) tight end room, while Baltimore has star Mark Andrews, blocker Nick Boyle (currently sidelined after a knee surgery), and opportunity for a second pass catcher. A move to Baltimore looks like a good thing for his prospects. (Marquise Brown, incidentally, is also currently sidelined due to a hamstring injury.)
For a sense of whether Oliver makes some sense in the last rounds of a best-ball or dynasty league, I took a look at all tight ends drafted in the first three rounds this century who failed to make an impact in their first two seasons. (I set the bar at 300 receiving yards.) There were 37 such players, including two other 2019 guys -- Jace Sternberger in Green Bay (who was pushed aside by Robert Tonyan), and Kahale Warring in Houston. The odds of a third-year breakout for any of the three, based on the past 20 years, isn't great.
Seven of the previous 34, so about a fifth, put up that elusive 300-receiving yard season in Year 3. Best of those was Kellen Winslow Jr. Three others have had some success, with Jonnu Smith the most notable recent player. Smith looks like the most Oliver-like player -- it's possible.
But the vast majority of those players didn't do anything in Year 3, either, as the table (which shows year 1 and 2 receiving yards and then catches, yards and touchdowns in year 3) shows. Table is sorted by third-year yardage.
| THIRD-YEAR TES, UNDER 300 YARDS FIRST TWO SEASONS, 2000- | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft | Rd | Player | Yr 1 | Yr 2 | No | Yds | TD |
| 2004 | 1 | Kellen Winslow, Clev. | 50 | 0 | 89 | 875 | 3 |
| 2014 | 3 | C.J. Fiedorowicz, Hou. | 28 | 167 | 54 | 559 | 4 |
| 2006 | 2 | Anthony Fasano, Dall. | 126 | 143 | 34 | 454 | 7 |
| 2017 | 3 | Jonnu Smith, Tenn. | 157 | 258 | 35 | 439 | 3 |
| 2015 | 3 | Tyler Kroft, Cin. | 129 | 92 | 42 | 404 | 7 |
| 2002 | 1 | Jerramy Stevens, Sea. | 252 | 72 | 31 | 349 | 3 |
| 2013 | 2 | Vance McDonald, S.F. | 119 | 30 | 30 | 326 | 3 |
| 2016 | 3 | Nick Vannett, Sea. | 32 | 124 | 29 | 269 | 3 |
| 2008 | 2 | Martellus Bennett, Dall. | 283 | 159 | 33 | 260 | 0 |
| 2002 | 3 | Chris Baker, NYJ | 14 | 137 | 18 | 182 | 4 |
| 2000 | 3 | Erron Kinney, Tenn. | 197 | 263 | 13 | 173 | 0 |
| 2001 | 3 | Shad Meier, Tenn. | 31 | 17 | 13 | 159 | 0 |
| 2015 | 3 | Jeff Heuerman, Den. | 0 | 141 | 9 | 142 | 2 |
| 2004 | 2 | Kris Wilson, K.C. | 0 | 33 | 15 | 132 | 1 |
| 2006 | 2 | Joe Klopfenstein, St.L. | 226 | 37 | 11 | 123 | 0 |
| 2008 | 3 | Craig Stevens, Tenn. | 9 | 0 | 11 | 122 | 2 |
| 2000 | 3 | Dustin Lyman, Chi. | 4 | 0 | 14 | 121 | 2 |
| 2009 | 3 | Travis Beckum, NYG | 55 | 116 | 5 | 93 | 1 |
| 2003 | 3 | Visante Shiancoe, NYG | 56 | 25 | 8 | 91 | 0 |
| 2015 | 2 | Maxx Williams, Balt. | 268 | 0 | 15 | 86 | 1 |
| 2017 | 2 | Adam Shaheen, Chi. | 127 | 48 | 9 | 74 | 0 |
| 2004 | 3 | Ben Hartsock, Ind. | 33 | 8 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| 2013 | 2 | Gavin Escobar, Dall. | 134 | 105 | 8 | 64 | 1 |
| 2003 | 2 | Teyo Johnson, Oak. | 128 | 131 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| 2007 | 3 | Matt Spaeth, Pitt. | 34 | 136 | 5 | 25 | 1 |
| 2005 | 3 | Kevin Everett, Buff. | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 2003 | 3 | Mike Seidman, Car. | 35 | 123 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2008 | 3 | Brad Cottam, K.C. | 63 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2014 | 2 | Troy Niklas, Ariz. | 38 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2009 | 3 | Chase Coffman, Cin. | 0 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2009 | 2 | Richard Quinn, Den. | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2003 | 2 | Bennie Joppru, Hou. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2001 | 3 | Sean Brewer, Cin. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2012 | 3 | Michael Egnew, Mia. | 0 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019 | 3 | Jace Sternberger, G.B. | 0 | 114 | ? | ? | ? |
| 2019 | 3 | Kahale Warring, Hou. | 0 | 35 | ? | ? | ? |
| 2019 | 3 | Josh Oliver, Jac. | 15 | 0 | ? | ? | ? |
Martellus Bennett, note, didn't do much in any of his first three seasons in the league. First four, actually, stuck behind Jason Witten in Dallas. He then proceeded to catch 50-plus passes five years in a row with the Giants and Bears, including a 90-catch Pro Bowl season in Chicago. But he's definitely the exception.
If Oliver (or even less likely, Sternberger or Warring) amounts to anything, he'll be beating the odds. Worth monitoring in the preseason (Oliver should play plenty), but not counting on.
--Andy Richardson