Derrick Henry was a top-5 pick in most fantasy drafts, coming off a 2,000-yard season. He opens against Arizona, which is a favorable enough matchup, with the Cardinals just 22nd in run defense a year ago. He'll likely get off to a good start -- and if history is any indication, he'll finish the season even better.
Some running backs wear down as the season goes on. With Henry, it seems to be the opposite. I looked at all of his regular-season games the last three years. He's definitely been better in the second half of seasons.
Of Henry's 12 best rushing performances in those years, shown below, all but one came from Week 10 on. (The exception was against Houston's league-worst run defense last season. Of his 12 worst performances, shown in the second table, just three of them came in the second half of the season.
| HENRY'S 12 BEST RUSHING GAMES, 2018-2020 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | G | Opp | Result | Att | Yds | TD |
| 2020 | 16 | at Hou. | W 41-38 | 34 | 250 | 2 |
| 2018 | 13 | Jac. | W 30-9 | 17 | 238 | 4 |
| 2020 | 13 | at Jac. | W 31-10 | 26 | 215 | 2 |
| 2020 | 5 | Hou. | W 42-36 | 22 | 212 | 2 |
| 2019 | 16 | at Hou. | W 35-14 | 32 | 211 | 3 |
| 2019 | 10 | K.C. | W 35-32 | 23 | 188 | 2 |
| 2020 | 11 | at Ind. | W 45-26 | 27 | 178 | 3 |
| 2018 | 14 | at NYG | W 17-0 | 33 | 170 | 2 |
| 2019 | 11 | Jac. | W 42-20 | 19 | 159 | 2 |
| 2019 | 12 | at Ind. | W 31-17 | 26 | 149 | 1 |
| 2020 | 14 | Det. | W 46-25 | 24 | 147 | 1 |
| 2020 | 10 | at Bal. | W 30-24 | 28 | 133 | 1 |
Not surprisingly, all 12 of his best games were Tennessee wins. Eight of his worst games were losses.
| HENRY'S 12 WORST RUSHING GAMES, 2018-2020 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | G | Opp | Result | Att | Yds | TD |
| 2018 | 2 | Hou. | W 20-17 | 18 | 56 | 0 |
| 2018 | 5 | at Buf. | L 12-13 | 11 | 56 | 0 |
| 2018 | 10 | at Ind. | L 10-38 | 9 | 46 | 0 |
| 2019 | 3 | at Jac. | L 7-20 | 17 | 44 | 1 |
| 2018 | 12 | NYJ | W 26-22 | 10 | 40 | 1 |
| 2018 | 7 | at LAC | L 19-20 | 12 | 33 | 1 |
| 2018 | 11 | at Hou. | L 17-34 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| 2019 | 6 | at Den. | L 0-16 | 15 | 28 | 0 |
| 2018 | 8 | at Dal. | W 28-14 | 6 | 27 | 1 |
| 2018 | 1 | at Mia. | L 20-27 | 10 | 26 | 0 |
| 2018 | 4 | Phi. | W 26-23 | 8 | 24 | 0 |
| 2018 | 6 | Bal. | L 0-21 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
"Andy's saying I should bench Henry early in the season!" -- no, no. Note that all of Henry's worst games were in 2018 and 2019, and in 2018 he'd yet to emerge as the dominant force he is today, partly due to usage. Dion Lewis was coming onto the field too often, for one thing.
This is more to point out that if you drafted Henry, as good as he might be the first half of the year, the best should be yet to come. Some running backs do their best work early....Henry does his late.
--Andy Richardson