Washington plays at Buffalo this week. Is this a good matchup for J.D. McKissic? On the one hand, this looks like a probable loss, with Buffalo looking like one of the AFC’s best teams. But at the same time, Washington could be trailing more often, resulting in more dumpoff passes, and McKissic fills that role in the offense.

That’s a question that’s long interested me. Is it better to start third-down backs in losses? There tends to be more scoring and production in wins, but losses tend to result in more of those cheap passing stats, helping out McKissic types.

I’ve spent the last hour pushing around some numbers on this. On this one, I took all third-down backs who’ve caught at least 60 passes in a season in the last three years. And I’m looking only at third-down backs here, leaving out featured backs (McCaffrey, Kamara, Elliott) who also happen to be pass catchers – I’m looking at McKissic-type players.

Then we can look at how those players performed in games from those seasons.

There are 173 such games, and these players (on average) were a point better in losses (using PPR scoring). In those 82 losses, they averaged 19 rushing yards and 5.3 catches for 41 receiving yards, with 20 TDs (in 82 games is about a touchdown every four weeks).

There were 91 wins, and the third-down backs in those games averaged 22 rushing yards and 3.8 catches for 33 yards, with 37 touchdowns in 91 games. That’s a big increase in touchdowns, but with a decrease in catches of a one and a half per game.

With these backs, there were 43 times a player caught at least 7 passes, and 30 of those came in losses (which I’ve got tagged with black dots). Only 13 came in games that teams won.

McKissic caught at least 7 passes six times last year. All but one of those games came in games Washington lost.

THIRD-DOWN BACKS WITH AT LEAST 7 CATCHES
PlayerYearOppResultRushingReceivingPPR
• Austin Ekeler, LAC2019DENL 13-203-7-015-86-024.3
• Tarik Cohen, CHI2018NYGL 27-308-30-012-156-030.6
James White, NWE2018INDW 38-242-0-010-77-123.7
James White, NWE2018BUFW 25-68-15-110-79-025.4
J.D. McKissic, WAS2020PITW 23-175-8-010-70-017.8
James White, NWE2019NYGW 35-142-(-1)-09-46-013.5
Tarik Cohen, CHI2019MINW 21-194-20-09-44-015.4
• Nyheim Hines, IND2018HOUL 34-374-10-09-63-228.3
• Theo Riddick, DET2018SFOL 27-300-0-09-47-013.7
• Tarik Cohen, CHI2019NORL 25-363-10-09-19-011.9
• Austin Ekeler, LAC2019KANL 21-319-46-09-43-017.9
• J.D. McKissic, WAS2020NYGL 20-233-17-09-65-017.2
• J.D. McKissic, WAS2020SEAL 15-2013-51-09-56-125.7
• Jalen Richard, OAK2018LARL 13-335-24-09-55-016.9
• Nyheim Hines, IND2018JAXL 0-64-5-09-50-014.5
James White, NWE2018MIAW 38-78-44-18-68-131.2
James White, NWE2018CHIW 38-3111-40-08-57-229.7
James White, NWE2019BUFW 16-101-1-08-57-013.8
• Tarik Cohen, CHI2018NWEL 31-386-14-08-69-122.3
• Tarik Cohen, CHI2019GNBL 3-100-0-08-49-012.9
• Jalen Richard, OAK2018INDL 28-422-14-08-50-014.4
• Nyheim Hines, IND2020TENL 26-4510-29-08-66-017.5
• James White, NWE2019HOUL 22-2814-79-08-98-237.7
• Nyheim Hines, IND2020JAXL 20-277-28-18-45-127.3
• Austin Ekeler, LAC2019KANL 17-245-24-08-108-021.2
• J.D. McKissic, WAS2020CARL 13-204-15-08-77-123.2
Tarik Cohen, CHI2018TAMW 48-1013-53-07-121-130.4
James White, NWE2019NYJW 33-05-0-07-59-012.9
James White, NWE2018MINW 24-106-26-07-92-018.8
Tarik Cohen, CHI2018DETW 23-163-14-07-45-118.9
Tarik Cohen, CHI2019NYGW 19-146-25-07-29-012.4
• Theo Riddick, DET2018MINL 9-240-0-07-36-010.6
• Jalen Richard, OAK2018SEAL 3-272-3-07-48-012.1
• Tarik Cohen, CHI2018MIAL 28-315-31-17-90-025.1
• J.D. McKissic, WAS2020DETL 27-308-6-17-43-017.9
• Nyheim Hines, IND2018NWEL 24-3815-45-07-45-016.0
• Nyheim Hines, IND2018CINL 23-345-19-07-33-012.2
• James White, NWE2018JAXL 20-314-11-07-73-015.4
• Austin Ekeler, LAC2019HOUL 20-279-36-07-45-015.1
• Austin Ekeler, LAC2019TENL 20-235-7-07-118-125.5
• J.D. McKissic, WAS2020BALL 17-312-6-07-40-011.6
• Theo Riddick, DET2018CHIL 16-232-12-07-48-013.0
• Tarik Cohen, CHI2019GNBL 13-218-28-07-57-015.5

Similarly, there were 44 games where these backs caught only 0-2 passes. (And with this study, the player must have played at least some for the performance to be considered.) In the low-receiving production games, 29 of them came in games the teams won, versus only 15 losses – so it’s again about a 2-1 ratio, but flipped the other way.

McKissic caught 0-2 passes five times last year; all but one of those games came when Washington won.

THIRD-DOWN BACKS WITH ONLY 0-2 CATCHES
PlayerYearOppResultRushingReceivingPPR
Theo Riddick, DET2018GNBW 31-04-24-00-0-02.4
• Jalen Richard, OAK2018DENL 19-202-3-00-0-0.3
• J.D. McKissic, WAS2020ARIL 15-308-53-00-0-05.3
Tarik Cohen, CHI2018BUFW 41-96-5-01-8-02.3
Nyheim Hines, IND2019CARW 38-61-4-01-2-01.6
Nyheim Hines, IND2018TENW 38-105-14-01-20-04.4
Nyheim Hines, IND2018BUFW 37-55-47-01-(-5)-05.2
Nyheim Hines, IND2019HOUW 30-231-3-01-13-02.6
Nyheim Hines, IND2020MINW 28-110-0-01-4-01.4
J.D. McKissic, WAS2020PHIW 27-173-(-2)-01-1-0.9
James White, NWE2018NYJW 27-139-73-01-5-08.8
Jalen Richard, OAK2018PITW 24-218-24-01-5-03.9
Tarik Cohen, CHI2018SEAW 24-174-8-01-17-03.5
Tarik Cohen, CHI2018NYJW 24-105-40-01-70-118.0
Nyheim Hines, IND2018WASW 21-94-7-11-(-2)-07.5
Nyheim Hines, IND2019TENW 19-172-9-01-5-02.4
Tarik Cohen, CHI2018SFOW 14-96-12-01-7-02.9
James White, NWE2019DALW 13-92-5-01-(-6)-0.9
• Nyheim Hines, IND2019PITL 24-261-7-01-21-03.8
Nyheim Hines, IND2018OAKW 42-2811-78-02-7-010.5
J.D. McKissic, WAS2020DALW 41-161-6-02-21-04.7
Theo Riddick, DET2018GNBW 31-233-3-02-20-04.3
Tarik Cohen, CHI2019WASW 31-154-(-2)-02-26-04.4
Nyheim Hines, IND2018MIAW 27-249-28-02-22-07.0
Nyheim Hines, IND2020HOUW 27-205-43-02-11-07.4
J.D. McKissic, WAS2020DALW 25-35-35-02-16-07.1
James White, NWE2018BUFW 24-128-41-12-13-013.4
Tarik Cohen, CHI2018MINW 24-105-24-12-8-011.2
J.D. McKissic, WAS2020SFOW 23-1511-68-02-18-010.6
Austin Ekeler, LAC2019CHIW 17-163-3-02-19-110.2
Tarik Cohen, CHI2019MINW 16-65-11-02-7-19.8
Tarik Cohen, CHI2019DENW 16-144-18-02-7-04.5
• Nyheim Hines, IND2019NORL 7-342-10-02-2-03.2
• Nyheim Hines, IND2018NYJL 34-423-14-02-21-05.5
• James White, NWE2018MIAL 33-344-13-02-15-04.8
• Jalen Richard, OAK2018KANL 3-353-1-02-17-03.8
• Austin Ekeler, LAC2019OAKL 24-266-19-02-29-112.8
• Nyheim Hines, IND2020CLEL 23-323-8-02-22-05.0
• James White, NWE2019BALL 20-379-38-12-46-016.4
• Jalen Richard, OAK2018BALL 17-341-1-02-15-03.6
• Nyheim Hines, IND2019TENL 17-314-22-12-18-012.0
• Nyheim Hines, IND2019HOUL 17-209-51-02-10-08.1
• Tarik Cohen, CHI2019PHIL 14-222-7-02-9-03.6
• Theo Riddick, DET2018BUFL 13-148-47-02-9-07.6
• Nyheim Hines, IND2020BALL 10-242-18-02-20-05.8

In my opinion, it’s accurate to conclude a back like J.D. McKissic should be more involved as a pass catcher in games where his team is behind and forced to move away from the run.

Of course, we can’t go into any week being certain a team will lose. Maybe Washington goes into Buffalo and pulls off a surprising upset, with Antonio Gibson running more effectively than I’ve expecting (and McKissic, then, not playing all that much).

Additionally, for fantasy purposes, we’re not looking for receiving production, we’re looking for OVERALL production – PPR points. If we pull out the top 30 games from our group of 173, I see half wins and half losses.

THIRD-DOWN BACKS: BEST OVERALL GAMES
PlayerYearOppResultRushingReceivingPPR
Austin Ekeler, LAC2019INDW 30-2412-58-16-96-239.4
• James White, NWE2019HOUL 22-2814-79-08-98-237.7
Austin Ekeler, LAC2019JAXW 45-108-101-04-112-131.3
James White, NWE2018MIAW 38-78-44-18-68-131.2
• Tarik Cohen, CHI2018NYGL 27-308-30-012-156-030.6
Tarik Cohen, CHI2018TAMW 48-1013-53-07-121-130.4
James White, NWE2018CHIW 38-3111-40-08-57-229.7
Austin Ekeler, LAC2019MIAW 30-1018-60-15-62-129.2
Nyheim Hines, IND2020TENW 34-1712-70-15-45-128.5
James White, NWE2018GNBW 31-1712-31-26-72-028.3
• Nyheim Hines, IND2018HOUL 34-374-10-09-63-228.3
• Nyheim Hines, IND2020JAXL 20-277-28-18-45-127.3
• J.D. McKissic, WAS2020SEAL 15-2013-51-09-56-125.7
• Austin Ekeler, LAC2019TENL 20-235-7-07-118-125.5
James White, NWE2018BUFW 25-68-15-110-79-025.4
• Austin Ekeler, LAC2019DETL 10-1317-66-16-67-025.3
• Tarik Cohen, CHI2018MIAL 28-315-31-17-90-025.1
• Austin Ekeler, LAC2019DENL 13-203-7-015-86-024.3
James White, NWE2018INDW 38-242-0-010-77-123.7
• J.D. McKissic, WAS2020CARL 13-204-15-08-77-123.2
• Tarik Cohen, CHI2018NWEL 31-386-14-08-69-122.3
• Austin Ekeler, LAC2019KANL 17-245-24-08-108-021.2
Nyheim Hines, IND2020DETW 41-215-8-03-54-221.2
Tarik Cohen, CHI2018DETW 23-163-14-07-45-118.9
James White, NWE2018MINW 24-106-26-07-92-018.8
• Tarik Cohen, CHI2019LARL 7-179-39-05-35-118.4
Tarik Cohen, CHI2018NYJW 24-105-40-01-70-118.0
• J.D. McKissic, WAS2020DETL 27-308-6-17-43-017.9
• Austin Ekeler, LAC2019KANL 21-319-46-09-43-017.9
J.D. McKissic, WAS2020PITW 23-175-8-010-70-017.8

—Ian Allan

Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com