Factoid

September 24, 2021

Third-down backs

Are pass-catching backs better in losses?

Washington plays at Buffalo this week. Is this a good matchup for J.D. McKissic? On the one hand, this looks like a probable loss, with Buffalo looking like one of the AFC’s best teams. But at the same time, Washington could be trailing more often, resulting in more dumpoff passes, and McKissic fills that role in the offense.

That’s a question that’s long interested me. Is it better to start third-down backs in losses? There tends to be more scoring and production in wins, but losses tend to result in more of those cheap passing stats, helping out McKissic types.

I’ve spent the last hour pushing around some numbers on this. On this one, I took all third-down backs who’ve caught at least 60 passes in a season in the last three years. And I’m looking only at third-down backs here, leaving out featured backs (McCaffrey, Kamara, Elliott) who also happen to be pass catchers – I’m looking at McKissic-type players.

Then we can look at how those players performed in games from those seasons.

There are 173 such games, and these players (on average) were a point better in losses (using PPR scoring). In those 82 losses, they averaged 19 rushing yards and 5.3 catches for 41 receiving yards, with 20 TDs (in 82 games is about a touchdown every four weeks).

There were 91 wins, and the third-down backs in those games averaged 22 rushing yards and 3.8 catches for 33 yards, with 37 touchdowns in 91 games. That’s a big increase in touchdowns, but with a decrease in catches of a one and a half per game.

With these backs, there were 43 times a player caught at least 7 passes, and 30 of those came in losses (which I’ve got tagged with black dots). Only 13 came in games that teams won.

McKissic caught at least 7 passes six times last year. All but one of those games came in games Washington lost.

THIRD-DOWN BACKS WITH AT LEAST 7 CATCHES
Player	Year	Opp	Result	Rushing	Receiving	PPR
• Austin Ekeler, LAC	2019	DEN	L 13-20	3-7-0	15-86-0	24.3
• Tarik Cohen, CHI	2018	NYG	L 27-30	8-30-0	12-156-0	30.6
James White, NWE	2018	IND	W 38-24	2-0-0	10-77-1	23.7
James White, NWE	2018	BUF	W 25-6	8-15-1	10-79-0	25.4
J.D. McKissic, WAS	2020	PIT	W 23-17	5-8-0	10-70-0	17.8
James White, NWE	2019	NYG	W 35-14	2-(-1)-0	9-46-0	13.5
Tarik Cohen, CHI	2019	MIN	W 21-19	4-20-0	9-44-0	15.4
• Nyheim Hines, IND	2018	HOU	L 34-37	4-10-0	9-63-2	28.3
• Theo Riddick, DET	2018	SFO	L 27-30	0-0-0	9-47-0	13.7
• Tarik Cohen, CHI	2019	NOR	L 25-36	3-10-0	9-19-0	11.9
• Austin Ekeler, LAC	2019	KAN	L 21-31	9-46-0	9-43-0	17.9
• J.D. McKissic, WAS	2020	NYG	L 20-23	3-17-0	9-65-0	17.2
• J.D. McKissic, WAS	2020	SEA	L 15-20	13-51-0	9-56-1	25.7
• Jalen Richard, OAK	2018	LAR	L 13-33	5-24-0	9-55-0	16.9
• Nyheim Hines, IND	2018	JAX	L 0-6	4-5-0	9-50-0	14.5
James White, NWE	2018	MIA	W 38-7	8-44-1	8-68-1	31.2
James White, NWE	2018	CHI	W 38-31	11-40-0	8-57-2	29.7
James White, NWE	2019	BUF	W 16-10	1-1-0	8-57-0	13.8
• Tarik Cohen, CHI	2018	NWE	L 31-38	6-14-0	8-69-1	22.3
• Tarik Cohen, CHI	2019	GNB	L 3-10	0-0-0	8-49-0	12.9
• Jalen Richard, OAK	2018	IND	L 28-42	2-14-0	8-50-0	14.4
• Nyheim Hines, IND	2020	TEN	L 26-45	10-29-0	8-66-0	17.5
• James White, NWE	2019	HOU	L 22-28	14-79-0	8-98-2	37.7
• Nyheim Hines, IND	2020	JAX	L 20-27	7-28-1	8-45-1	27.3
• Austin Ekeler, LAC	2019	KAN	L 17-24	5-24-0	8-108-0	21.2
• J.D. McKissic, WAS	2020	CAR	L 13-20	4-15-0	8-77-1	23.2
Tarik Cohen, CHI	2018	TAM	W 48-10	13-53-0	7-121-1	30.4
James White, NWE	2019	NYJ	W 33-0	5-0-0	7-59-0	12.9
James White, NWE	2018	MIN	W 24-10	6-26-0	7-92-0	18.8
Tarik Cohen, CHI	2018	DET	W 23-16	3-14-0	7-45-1	18.9
Tarik Cohen, CHI	2019	NYG	W 19-14	6-25-0	7-29-0	12.4
• Theo Riddick, DET	2018	MIN	L 9-24	0-0-0	7-36-0	10.6
• Jalen Richard, OAK	2018	SEA	L 3-27	2-3-0	7-48-0	12.1
• Tarik Cohen, CHI	2018	MIA	L 28-31	5-31-1	7-90-0	25.1
• J.D. McKissic, WAS	2020	DET	L 27-30	8-6-1	7-43-0	17.9
• Nyheim Hines, IND	2018	NWE	L 24-38	15-45-0	7-45-0	16.0
• Nyheim Hines, IND	2018	CIN	L 23-34	5-19-0	7-33-0	12.2
• James White, NWE	2018	JAX	L 20-31	4-11-0	7-73-0	15.4
• Austin Ekeler, LAC	2019	HOU	L 20-27	9-36-0	7-45-0	15.1
• Austin Ekeler, LAC	2019	TEN	L 20-23	5-7-0	7-118-1	25.5
• J.D. McKissic, WAS	2020	BAL	L 17-31	2-6-0	7-40-0	11.6
• Theo Riddick, DET	2018	CHI	L 16-23	2-12-0	7-48-0	13.0
• Tarik Cohen, CHI	2019	GNB	L 13-21	8-28-0	7-57-0	15.5

Similarly, there were 44 games where these backs caught only 0-2 passes. (And with this study, the player must have played at least some for the performance to be considered.) In the low-receiving production games, 29 of them came in games the teams won, versus only 15 losses – so it’s again about a 2-1 ratio, but flipped the other way.

McKissic caught 0-2 passes five times last year; all but one of those games came when Washington won.

THIRD-DOWN BACKS WITH ONLY 0-2 CATCHES
Player	Year	Opp	Result	Rushing	Receiving	PPR
Theo Riddick, DET	2018	GNB	W 31-0	4-24-0	0-0-0	2.4
• Jalen Richard, OAK	2018	DEN	L 19-20	2-3-0	0-0-0	.3
• J.D. McKissic, WAS	2020	ARI	L 15-30	8-53-0	0-0-0	5.3
Tarik Cohen, CHI	2018	BUF	W 41-9	6-5-0	1-8-0	2.3
Nyheim Hines, IND	2019	CAR	W 38-6	1-4-0	1-2-0	1.6
Nyheim Hines, IND	2018	TEN	W 38-10	5-14-0	1-20-0	4.4
Nyheim Hines, IND	2018	BUF	W 37-5	5-47-0	1-(-5)-0	5.2
Nyheim Hines, IND	2019	HOU	W 30-23	1-3-0	1-13-0	2.6
Nyheim Hines, IND	2020	MIN	W 28-11	0-0-0	1-4-0	1.4
J.D. McKissic, WAS	2020	PHI	W 27-17	3-(-2)-0	1-1-0	.9
James White, NWE	2018	NYJ	W 27-13	9-73-0	1-5-0	8.8
Jalen Richard, OAK	2018	PIT	W 24-21	8-24-0	1-5-0	3.9
Tarik Cohen, CHI	2018	SEA	W 24-17	4-8-0	1-17-0	3.5
Tarik Cohen, CHI	2018	NYJ	W 24-10	5-40-0	1-70-1	18.0
Nyheim Hines, IND	2018	WAS	W 21-9	4-7-1	1-(-2)-0	7.5
Nyheim Hines, IND	2019	TEN	W 19-17	2-9-0	1-5-0	2.4
Tarik Cohen, CHI	2018	SFO	W 14-9	6-12-0	1-7-0	2.9
James White, NWE	2019	DAL	W 13-9	2-5-0	1-(-6)-0	.9
• Nyheim Hines, IND	2019	PIT	L 24-26	1-7-0	1-21-0	3.8
Nyheim Hines, IND	2018	OAK	W 42-28	11-78-0	2-7-0	10.5
J.D. McKissic, WAS	2020	DAL	W 41-16	1-6-0	2-21-0	4.7
Theo Riddick, DET	2018	GNB	W 31-23	3-3-0	2-20-0	4.3
Tarik Cohen, CHI	2019	WAS	W 31-15	4-(-2)-0	2-26-0	4.4
Nyheim Hines, IND	2018	MIA	W 27-24	9-28-0	2-22-0	7.0
Nyheim Hines, IND	2020	HOU	W 27-20	5-43-0	2-11-0	7.4
J.D. McKissic, WAS	2020	DAL	W 25-3	5-35-0	2-16-0	7.1
James White, NWE	2018	BUF	W 24-12	8-41-1	2-13-0	13.4
Tarik Cohen, CHI	2018	MIN	W 24-10	5-24-1	2-8-0	11.2
J.D. McKissic, WAS	2020	SFO	W 23-15	11-68-0	2-18-0	10.6
Austin Ekeler, LAC	2019	CHI	W 17-16	3-3-0	2-19-1	10.2
Tarik Cohen, CHI	2019	MIN	W 16-6	5-11-0	2-7-1	9.8
Tarik Cohen, CHI	2019	DEN	W 16-14	4-18-0	2-7-0	4.5
• Nyheim Hines, IND	2019	NOR	L 7-34	2-10-0	2-2-0	3.2
• Nyheim Hines, IND	2018	NYJ	L 34-42	3-14-0	2-21-0	5.5
• James White, NWE	2018	MIA	L 33-34	4-13-0	2-15-0	4.8
• Jalen Richard, OAK	2018	KAN	L 3-35	3-1-0	2-17-0	3.8
• Austin Ekeler, LAC	2019	OAK	L 24-26	6-19-0	2-29-1	12.8
• Nyheim Hines, IND	2020	CLE	L 23-32	3-8-0	2-22-0	5.0
• James White, NWE	2019	BAL	L 20-37	9-38-1	2-46-0	16.4
• Jalen Richard, OAK	2018	BAL	L 17-34	1-1-0	2-15-0	3.6
• Nyheim Hines, IND	2019	TEN	L 17-31	4-22-1	2-18-0	12.0
• Nyheim Hines, IND	2019	HOU	L 17-20	9-51-0	2-10-0	8.1
• Tarik Cohen, CHI	2019	PHI	L 14-22	2-7-0	2-9-0	3.6
• Theo Riddick, DET	2018	BUF	L 13-14	8-47-0	2-9-0	7.6
• Nyheim Hines, IND	2020	BAL	L 10-24	2-18-0	2-20-0	5.8

In my opinion, it’s accurate to conclude a back like J.D. McKissic should be more involved as a pass catcher in games where his team is behind and forced to move away from the run.

Of course, we can’t go into any week being certain a team will lose. Maybe Washington goes into Buffalo and pulls off a surprising upset, with Antonio Gibson running more effectively than I’ve expecting (and McKissic, then, not playing all that much).

Additionally, for fantasy purposes, we’re not looking for receiving production, we’re looking for OVERALL production – PPR points. If we pull out the top 30 games from our group of 173, I see half wins and half losses.

THIRD-DOWN BACKS: BEST OVERALL GAMES
Player	Year	Opp	Result	Rushing	Receiving	PPR
Austin Ekeler, LAC	2019	IND	W 30-24	12-58-1	6-96-2	39.4
• James White, NWE	2019	HOU	L 22-28	14-79-0	8-98-2	37.7
Austin Ekeler, LAC	2019	JAX	W 45-10	8-101-0	4-112-1	31.3
James White, NWE	2018	MIA	W 38-7	8-44-1	8-68-1	31.2
• Tarik Cohen, CHI	2018	NYG	L 27-30	8-30-0	12-156-0	30.6
Tarik Cohen, CHI	2018	TAM	W 48-10	13-53-0	7-121-1	30.4
James White, NWE	2018	CHI	W 38-31	11-40-0	8-57-2	29.7
Austin Ekeler, LAC	2019	MIA	W 30-10	18-60-1	5-62-1	29.2
Nyheim Hines, IND	2020	TEN	W 34-17	12-70-1	5-45-1	28.5
James White, NWE	2018	GNB	W 31-17	12-31-2	6-72-0	28.3
• Nyheim Hines, IND	2018	HOU	L 34-37	4-10-0	9-63-2	28.3
• Nyheim Hines, IND	2020	JAX	L 20-27	7-28-1	8-45-1	27.3
• J.D. McKissic, WAS	2020	SEA	L 15-20	13-51-0	9-56-1	25.7
• Austin Ekeler, LAC	2019	TEN	L 20-23	5-7-0	7-118-1	25.5
James White, NWE	2018	BUF	W 25-6	8-15-1	10-79-0	25.4
• Austin Ekeler, LAC	2019	DET	L 10-13	17-66-1	6-67-0	25.3
• Tarik Cohen, CHI	2018	MIA	L 28-31	5-31-1	7-90-0	25.1
• Austin Ekeler, LAC	2019	DEN	L 13-20	3-7-0	15-86-0	24.3
James White, NWE	2018	IND	W 38-24	2-0-0	10-77-1	23.7
• J.D. McKissic, WAS	2020	CAR	L 13-20	4-15-0	8-77-1	23.2
• Tarik Cohen, CHI	2018	NWE	L 31-38	6-14-0	8-69-1	22.3
• Austin Ekeler, LAC	2019	KAN	L 17-24	5-24-0	8-108-0	21.2
Nyheim Hines, IND	2020	DET	W 41-21	5-8-0	3-54-2	21.2
Tarik Cohen, CHI	2018	DET	W 23-16	3-14-0	7-45-1	18.9
James White, NWE	2018	MIN	W 24-10	6-26-0	7-92-0	18.8
• Tarik Cohen, CHI	2019	LAR	L 7-17	9-39-0	5-35-1	18.4
Tarik Cohen, CHI	2018	NYJ	W 24-10	5-40-0	1-70-1	18.0
• J.D. McKissic, WAS	2020	DET	L 27-30	8-6-1	7-43-0	17.9
• Austin Ekeler, LAC	2019	KAN	L 21-31	9-46-0	9-43-0	17.9
J.D. McKissic, WAS	2020	PIT	W 23-17	5-8-0	10-70-0	17.8

—Ian Allan

Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com

J.D. McKissic

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