Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Will the Derrick Henry injury result in better numbers for Ryan Tannehill? Will Green Bay have a viable tight end? What happened to Mike Williams? And more.
Question 1
Lots of analysts weighing in on the replacement RBs for Derrick Henry, and the expected value of each, but I haven't seen anyone talk about what we expect this to do for Tannehill's value. As someone who thought he came out of our draft with a bargain (got Tannehill for $1), do you feel Henry's injury makes Tennessee more pass-centric and gets us closer to the 2020 version of Tanny, or will their overall offense just deteriorate, taking Tannehill with it?
Matt Tinker (Orleans, VT)
They’ll have to pass a lot more, but I don’t think that’s a good thing. Tannehill has been able to effectively run that offense, but it’s been built around Henry. With defenses worried about getting pounded, that set up the big plays off play action. If we’re asking Tannehill to more often drop back and operate as a traditional pocket passer, he’s not going to hit on as many of the big, impactful plays, and sacks, interceptions and fumbles are going to go up. That offensive line has had problems with pass protection, and those will be magnified now. They’ve been an issue anyway. After eight games, Tannehill has taken 24 sacks, with 7 interceptions – matching (exactly) his totals from all of last year. For fantasy purposes, he’s not a top-10 quarterback and he’s not a bottom-10 guy – he lives in that middle dozen.
Question 2
As a Robert Tonyan owner, who's now out for the season, I'm interested in who will be picking up the slack in Green Bay's passing offense. Do you foresee much potential from Marcedes Lewis or Josiah Deguara for the rest of the season?
Drew Paterson (Ferndale, WA)
I don’t think Lewis’ role will change at all. He’s a good blocking tight end, and I don’t think they want to mess with that. Deguara is the guy I have some interest in. He took over for Tonyan at Arizona, and it wasn’t long before I started wondering if the offense will be any different with him in there. Deguara looks like the same kind of guy, and he caught both of the passes thrown his way. He was open for a touchdown on a play where Rodgers decided to look elsewhere. Deguara appears to be a solid enough pass catcher. He caught 77 passes and 12 TDs his final two years at Cincinnati, and he’s caught all 4 of the passes thrown his way this year. They selected him in the third round (in 2020), and when tight ends are selected that early, it’s with the expectation they’ll be contributors.
Question 3
I plucked Mike Williams off the waiver wire and thought I hit the jackpot when he blossomed into a favorite target of Justin Herbert. But now he has caught only one or two passes in three of his past four games. I’m deep at receiver - I also have Lamb, Jefferson and Diontae Johnson. Is it time to bench Williams? What’s your expectation for him this week and for the rest of the season?
Paul Owers (Boynton Beach, FL)
Let’s not read too much into a small sample size. We’re talking about three games. In one of them, he was trying to play hurt (really shouldn’t have been active – saw less than half as much playing time as usual). That one, in my opinion, can simply be set aside. In the Raiders game, he caught only 1 pass for 11 yards, but he was open for an 82-yard touchdown where Herbert simply misfired. So that’s a lesser game, but not as awful as the numbers suggest. And most recently, he went against a New England defense that had a good plan for them and apparently made taking him away a priority. I wouldn’t be giving up on him just yet. In general, I would be slotting him behind Lamb and Jefferson for now in a typical week, but probably ahead of Johnson.
Question 4
Short and sweet. I need your best guess as to who the handcuff is for Ekeler. Chargers depth chart says Jackson but after reviewing 6 different online resources it appears it's a split between Jackson and Kelly. Your thoughts?
TIM ZEUCH (Mason, OH)
They’ve toyed around with all three of those guys, but none of them have really grabbed the role. Larry Rountree had a couple of decent power runs in the preseason, looking like he might add something a little different, but he’s averaged under 3 yards per attempt in the real games. Joshua Kelley has been mostly inactive; they went with him as their No. 2 for a couple of recent games (but sent him back to inactive on Sunday, and he has only 6 carries all year). Justin Jackson had a 75-yard run on Sunday but otherwise has carried 12 times for 26 yards. None of them look like a player they would want to put on the field too much – never going to be starter-type guys. But if Ekeler winds up missing some games, they’ll need to put somebody out there. Jackson has the most experience, so I would expect he’d get first crack, but probably with the others getting plenty of work (with the hope that maybe one would get hot and take over the job).
Question 5
I’m wondering about CEH who is due back from IR soon. Is he worth a flyer to pick up for help down the stretch/in the playoffs?
Charles Mobraten (Wheat Ridge, CO)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is eligible to come off injured reserve this week. It was a sprained knee, so he’s likely pretty close physically. But I haven’t seen anything about it happening this week – anything about him practicing or being designated to return. I would think that means it’s far more likely to happen in Week 10 (or maybe even Week 11). When he returns, I expected he’ll start and be their busiest back, but with Darrel Williams getting a decent chunk of work also. I wonder if they might like Williams more in passing situations. He’s bigger (helping in pass pro) and has been putting up good receiving numbers recently.
Question 6
What do you suggest with Allen Robinson? At this point, he is a dead roster spot, very little trade value but I am reluctant to drop him for someone like Jamison Crowder, Van Jefferson or Rashod Bateman due to anchoring bias.
John Legg (Kansas City, MO)
I have no problem dropping Robinson. I don’t think it’s happening for him in 2021. But I would like to think I would find someone better on the waiver wire. I guess it would be Jefferson for now. He’s been more productive than most of the other third receivers around the league, and if something were to happen to Kupp or Woods, Jefferson could then be something of value.
Question 7
I have been offered CeeDee Lamb for Josh Jacobs. My other RBs include Elliott, Najee Harris, Alex Collins, Melvin Gordon. My WR are Kupp, DJ Moore, Marquez Callaway and DeVonta Smith. Is this a worthwhile trade for me?
Danny Weisberg (Thousand Oaks, CA)
Yes. Raiders have had problems getting Jacobs going. He’s a decent back, but he doesn’t really add much to your backfield – looks like an insurance policy behind Zeke and Najee. Lamb, on the other hand, looks like a possible top-10 receiver. Would be your best wide receiver short of Kupp. Sold.
Question 8
besides Ten RBs, who should I look at to fill Henry's spot on my roster 12 man league? No-PPR, and doesn't have to be a RB
Jack MacEwen ()
How about Bryan Edwards? They throw the ball around effectively in Las Vegas, and they’re re-working with their receiving corps (as fallout from the tragic fatality on Tuesday morning). Edwards is a talented guy, and I think they’ll be using him a lot more. Also Zay Jones, who’s made a couple of catches this year that made we wonder whether he should be playing a lot more. Jones, I think, is a better player now than he’s been in the past, and he’ll be their third receiver now, operating as a deep threat who’s shown some ability to win on contested balls.
Question 9
As we enter the second half of the season, aside from Damien Harris, Nick Folk and the defense, should fantasy players stay away from the Patriots? And should we consider fading any of our offensive players whenever we face a Belichick defense? For me, it's reminiscent of issues with starting a pitcher who will toe the rubber at Coors Field.
Eric Degerman (Richland, WA)
That would be a fair assessment. They’ve got those three wide receivers – Meyers, Agholor, Bourne – but none of them are standing out. Meyers tends to catch the most passes, but he’s been in the league for three years without ever catching a touchdown (130 receptions and counting). Hunter Henry caught touchdowns in four straight games, but he’s been under 40 yards in five of his last six games. They’ve never really tapped into Jonnu Smith, who’s finished with fewer than 30 yards in six of his last seven games. Mac Jones is progressing well for a rookie, but he’s not putting up the kind of stats you’re looking for (unless you’re in a superflex league). The player on this roster that I have in a couple of leagues is Rhamondre Stevenson. If Harris breaks down at some point, I think they would plug in Stevenson and the production would be very similar.
Question 10
Looking at the TD only rankings in the latest re-drafter I’m curious as to why you have Nick Chubb ranked #1 ahead of players like Ekeler, Henderson, Conner, Mixon and Taylor. Especially with Hunt and/or Johnson around vulturing TDs. I’d be interested to hear your thoughts on this.
Philip Haines (Burien, WA)
Lots of moving parts in Cleveland’s backfield. When, most notably, is Kareem Hunt coming back? If Hunt’s not there, I think I changes Chubb’s role, with him getting more of the touches inside the 10-yard line than he would when everyone’s healthy. And probably more of the carries in general. How long is Jack Conklin going to be out? That running game is pretty impressive when they’ve got everyone healthy and dialed in. They ran for over 150 yards in each of their first five games. And they’ve scored over twice as many touchdowns on runs (14) as passes (7). The ground game, on the other hand, has underperformed in two of the last three, with just 73 and 96 yards in home losses against Arizona and Pittsburgh. Let’s say for now that Chubb is in that top tier of backs.
Question 11
Dynasty league TD dependent league. I have Rondale Moore who has potential but is in a crowded offense. I am thinking of dropping Moore for either Mecole Hardman, who is getting more targets or Diontae Johnson who is a target monster. My concern with Johnson is Big Ben not throwing many TDs. Also, it is unknown who will be the Steelers QB next season. Thoughts?
Howie Fishman (Hermosa Beach, CA)
Johnson is the best player. I would go with him. Roethlisberger won’t be back next year (we can all hope) but whoever they line up at quarterback might be as good or better. I’m not really interested in Hardman; he’s been there for a few years and has never been able to quite get it going. They selected him before DK Metcalf, Diontae Johnson and Terry McLaurin, which really stings. Moore is the fourth banana in Arizona right now, but he’s just getting his career started. A.J. Green is an older, declining player; I don’t think he’ll be back in 2022. And Christian Kirk is in a contract year. Heading into next year, I think, Moore will be a more knowledgeable and confident player and looking to have a much larger role.
Question 12
I have Shenault on all my teams, Shenault has been ranked fairly high for some time and is currently 37 in redraft, what am missing? please help me understand this ranking? Can I drop him, or do I need to hold on because the best is yet to come?
John Casani (Blue Bell, PA)
I wouldn’t be excited about playing him this week against Buffalo, for starters. But I have some interest in that passing game. Trevor Lawrence passed for 273 and 319 yards in his last two games before underperforming at Seattle. In the second half of the season, I think there’s some chance Lawrence develops into a quarterback who’s putting up above-average passing yards most weeks, probably with below-average TD passes. Think 270 yards per game, with 1-2 TD passes most weeks. When we get to that point, Shenault could be pretty decent. Since DJ Chark got hurt, Shenault has had two good games (6 catches each against the two Ohio teams) and two dud games (2 and 1 catches against Tennessee and Seattle). It’s a three-receiver offense, and right now I don’t see a ton of difference between Shenault, Jones and surprising Jamal Agnew.