Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Is it the perfect time to sell high on Derrick Henry? DeAndre Hopkins' declining role. Picking between the Arizona running backs. T.Y. Hilton coming back. And more.
Question 1
I see in the re-drafter that DeAndre Hopkins is pretty far down the list. What is that based off?
Sherif Elmazi (Hong Kong)
Great player, but they’re not jamming the ball into his hands like they have in the past. They’re doing a better job of getting their other wide receivers involved – Christian Kirk, A.J. Green and Rondale Moore. Hopkins last year averaged 7.2 catches for 88 yards. This year the passing production for the team is up, but Hopkins is averaging only 4.3 catches for 61 yards. Certainly you want to get Hopkins in your lineup this week (no doubt he’ll be jacked up, playing his first game against his former team). But if he lights them up with a big game, it might make some sense to consider dealing him if you can get something of value in return.
Question 2
You can't sell higher on Derrick Henry than right now, right? I'm assuming he has to regress slightly at some point. What kind of return would you need?
Timothy Lynch (Chicago, IL)
An interesting question. For me, it would take a lot for me to be willing to give up Derrick Henry. I think he’s something special – made from different stuff. He hasn’t played either of his Houston games yet. But since you brought it up, I did push around a few numbers. I decided to look at all running backs in the last 10 years who’ve run for at least 700 yards in the first half of the season. Take those backs, then look at how they performed in the second halves of those seasons.
There have been 34 such backs in the last 10 years. Eleven of them (including Derrick Henry last year) came back in the final eight games and put up better overall numbers. (Since we’re in the fantasy arena here, I used overall production – 6 points for TDs and 1 for every 10 run/rec yards). But 12 of the 34 (over a third) in their final eight games put up overall numbers that declined by at least 40 percent. If you were to trade out Henry for a huge haul of standout players, then he got banged up, becoming one of those big decliners, it would be a legendary moment in your league’s history.
In the chart below, if a player put up improved overall numbers in the second half of the season, I've got him tagged with a black dot. If his production declined by at least 40 percent, his name is in bold.
| BACKS RUNNING FOR 700 YARDS IN FIRST HALF OF THE SEASON | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Run | Rec | Total | TD | Final 8 Games | Diff? |
| 2014 | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 1054 | 239 | 1293 | 7 | 791-177-968-6 | -22% |
| 2016 | • Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 891 | 155 | 1046 | 7 | 740-208-948-9 | 2% |
| 2019 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 881 | 363 | 1244 | 13 | 506-642-1148-6 | -25% |
| 2020 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 858 | 173 | 1031 | 13 | 699-188-887-4 | -38% |
| 2020 | • Derrick Henry, Ten. | 843 | 81 | 924 | 8 | 1184-33-1217-9 | 25% |
| 2011 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 825 | 184 | 1009 | 11 | 484-131-615-9 | -31% |
| 2019 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 823 | 293 | 1116 | 9 | 312-226-538-4 | -53% |
| 2011 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 805 | 436 | 1241 | 3 | 192-54-246-1 | -78% |
| 2019 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 803 | 161 | 964 | 6 | 691-117-808-2 | -30% |
| 2011 | Fred Jackson, Buff. | 803 | 391 | 1194 | 6 | 131-51-182-0 | -88% |
| 2018 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 800 | 351 | 1151 | 15 | 451-229-680-6 | -49% |
| 2011 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 795 | 125 | 920 | 10 | 175-14-189-3 | -76% |
| 2012 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 794 | 245 | 1039 | 8 | 660-227-887-4 | -26% |
| 2019 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 791 | 263 | 1054 | 1 | 361-259-620-2 | -34% |
| 2017 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 783 | 210 | 993 | 9 | 200-59-259-0 | -83% |
| 2011 | Frank Gore, S.F. | 782 | 78 | 860 | 5 | 429-36-465-3 | -44% |
| 2012 | • Adrian Peterson, Min. | 775 | 139 | 914 | 4 | 1322-78-1400-9 | 68% |
| 2012 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 770 | 77 | 847 | 11 | 654-140-794-6 | -23% |
| 2014 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 766 | 166 | 932 | 9 | 480-161-641-4 | -40% |
| 2017 | Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 763 | 307 | 1070 | 6 | 564-148-712-5 | -29% |
| 2017 | • LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 760 | 219 | 979 | 5 | 531-436-967-6 | 4% |
| 2015 | • Adrian Peterson, Min. | 758 | 125 | 883 | 4 | 727-97-824-7 | 11% |
| 2012 | • Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 757 | 84 | 841 | 3 | 833-112-945-9 | 45% |
| 2016 | DeMarco Murray, Ten. | 756 | 197 | 953 | 8 | 531-180-711-4 | -34% |
| 2019 | • Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 741 | 176 | 917 | 6 | 616-244-860-8 | 5% |
| 2011 | • Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 740 | 85 | 825 | 3 | 866-289-1155-8 | 63% |
| 2019 | Josh Jacobs, Oak. | 740 | 102 | 842 | 6 | 410-64-474-1 | -56% |
| 2013 | • LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 733 | 284 | 1017 | 3 | 874-255-1129-8 | 34% |
| 2012 | • Alfred Morris, Wash. | 717 | 35 | 752 | 5 | 896-42-938-8 | 35% |
| 2012 | Stevan Ridley, N.E. | 716 | 51 | 767 | 5 | 547-0-547-7 | -9% |
| 2013 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 711 | 161 | 872 | 8 | 555-10-565-3 | -45% |
| 2015 | Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 709 | 353 | 1062 | 10 | 347-225-572-4 | -51% |
| 2018 | James Conner, Pitt. | 706 | 379 | 1085 | 10 | 267-118-385-3 | -66% |
| 2016 | • David Johnson, Ariz. | 705 | 407 | 1112 | 8 | 534-472-1006-12 | 8% |
Question 3
Half point PPR. Edmonds has seemed to underperform where he went in the draft. I’ve got Aaron Jones and Henderson as my top RBs. I also got Chris Carson in a trade to use after IR (I hope). Top WRs are Diggs and Lamb. The guy with Davante Adams and Thielen is desperate for RBs. I’m thinking Edmonds for Thielen is probably the fair deal to make, assuming Thielen would be preferred over Edmonds with my roster. Alternatively. Probably wishful thinking but something like Edmonds, Carson, and maybe toss in Corey Davis for Adams? Too lopsided?
Rich Wiegard (Frisco, TX)
If we were drafting today, Adams would be the first wide receiver selected. So there would be an uproar by some owners in your league if you were to pull off an Edmonds-Carson-Davis deal. (I don’t think you’d be able to anyone to even consider such a deal for half a second, so best not to even propose it.) In regards to Edmonds-Conner, I think the tendency for most is to overvalue touchdowns while not giving enough to receptions. Edmonds catches a bunch of balls, while Conner isn’t really a factor at all in the passing game. Edmonds so far has caught 26 passes for 163 yards. In full PPR, that’s equivalent to more than 5 touchdowns (in half PPR, it’s more like 3 TDs). In full PPR, Edmonds thus far is the 16th-best back, which is about where people picked him, I think. Conner in full PPR so far is the 21st-best back.
Question 4
Ian thanks for the good stuff! 6-0 with three weekly wins!! T.Y. Hilton is back and went 4/4 for 80 yards. Carson Wentz is playing better of late. The Colts have a manageable schedule the rest of the way. And he finished last year on a tear! Why do you have him ranked so low 65 in the redrafter? He is available on waivers but my lowest ranking receiver is Marvin Jones. Would you drop Jones for Hilton?
Steve Cates (Cheyenne, WY)
I wouldn’t release Jones. He’ll probably be Jacksonville’s leading receiver, and I think that passing game is coming on. Trevor Lawrence has passed for 273 and 319 yards in his last two games. He’s gone five straight games without throwing 2 TDs in any of them, but that probably will change. I’m not interested in trading that in for Hilton, playing as one of three viable wide receivers in a more conservative Indianapolis offense. Yes, the Colts passed for 402 yards in that Monday night game at Baltimore, but I think their preference is to run a more conservative, run-oriented system. They’ve thrown for fewer than 230 yards in each of their last three other games. In general, Hilton looks like a guy who should be rostered. He says he’s 50-50 for Sunday, so I imagine he’ll show up at Levi’s in some kind of mask or costume and maybe hit on a big play against the 49ers. But looking at the final 12 weeks, I like Jones more than Hilton.
Question 5
If Ertz plays for Arizona on Sunday, should his fantasy points from Sunday be combined with his points from Thursday to compute his Week 6 score? Has a player ever played in two NFL games in the same week for two different teams?
KEN STEPHENSON (Peoria, AZ)
Fun idea. I’m not certain, but I don’t believe it’s allowed. I suppose it’s at least physically possible (especially if we were looking at a less demanding position – like kicker or a player in a part-time role). Dan Arnold last month was traded on Monday and saw meaningful playing time in a Thursday night game for Jacksonville. Kenyan Drake two years ago was traded on Monday and ran for 110 yards in his Thursday night debut for Arizona. If you had a player getting traded from a team playing on Thursday night (like Ertz) to a team playing on Monday night, there would be three days between the games – same as a team playing on Sunday and then again on Thursday. We have had a few players get an extra game by getting traded during the season, missing the bye weeks for both teams. It happened two years ago with Emmanuel Sanders, moving from Denver to San Francisco. Sanders played 17 games that year. Trades can cause some matchup oddities. With the Herschel Walker trade in 1989, his final game for the Cowboys was against the Packers. He played against them again the next week in his debut for the Vikings.