Weather will be more of a factor this week. Especially in Green Bay, where the forecast suggests the Sunday night game against the Vikings will be played in temperatures of 3-6 degrees. What kind of effect, if any, will that have on those offenses?

Big numbers have been put up in the past in suspect weather, after all. The defenses, of course, are also having to deal with the conditions. I remember Antonio Freeman having one of the best games of his career in the snow late in the late in the ‘90s. And Matt Flynn in a Week 17 snow game threw 6 TD passes.

But here we’re talking about now only cold but also arctic conditions. This one should be more similar to that NFC Championship game between the Giants and Packers in 2007, when it was so cold some of the logos were falling off the helmet.

I played around with the numbers some on this, and there is a correlation between cold weather and decreased passing production. Since 2000, there have been 13 games played in temperatures of 10 degrees or colder. In those games, the offenses averaged only 207 passing yards, with 31 TDs and 21 interceptions – just over a touchdown per game. (For those who are interested, 58 percent passing in those games, and with 48 sacks for those 26 offenses).

Since 2015, there have been only three games played in temperatures below 10 degrees. Only one of the six offenses in those games passed for more than 160.

So for the Vikings-Packers this year, I have little interest in the Minnesota passing game (with journeyman Sean Mannion at the helm). For Green Bay, I have dialed down the passing projection, lowering guys like Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams on my board. Previously I thought Rodgers had a good chance of maybe going for 300 yards and 3 TDs; now I’m thinking more likely to finish with something like 250 and 2. (In the file, I believe I lowered him by about 40 yards and over half of a TD pass.)

PASSING PRODUCTION IN COLD-WEATHER GAMES (since 2000)
YearTmOppResultComAttYdsTDIntTmp
2021Green BayMIN???????
2021Minnesotaat GB???????
2017Green BayMINL 0-1617401260210
2017Minnesotaat GBW 16-014251241010
2016Tennesseeat KCW 19-171933241011
2016Kansas CityTENL 17-191528159011
2015Seattleat MINW 10-9132612911-6
2015MinnesotaSEAL 9-10172412500-6
2013ChicagoDALW 45-282736341408
2013Atlantaat GBL 21-222035202219
2013Green BayATLW 22-212432222119
2013San Franciscoat GBW 23-201630214115
2013Green BaySFL 20-231726157105
2013Dallasat CHIL 28-451425130308
2008Houstonat GBW 24-212842408213
2008Kansas CityMIAL 31-3820413122310
2008Green Bayat CHIL 17-202439260212
2008Miamiat KCW 38-3126342353110
2008Green BayHOUL 21-241930279213
2008ChicagoGBW 20-171427136122
2007NY Giantsat GBW 23-20214024300-1
2007Green BayNYGL 20-23193523622-1
2003New EnglandTENW 17-142141201104
2003Tennesseeat NEL 14-171826200114
2000Denverat KCL 7-202235225009
2000Jacksonvilleat CINL 14-171928162109
2000Kansas CityDENW 20-71428160009
2000CincinnatiJAXW 17-141022157019

I don’t think the weather is as much of a factor for the running backs. They might instead be enhanced by the conditions. Guys like Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon might get more carries than they would have if the game were being played in a dome.

And if it’s about 5 degrees, that might translate into a few more broken tackles, especially for a big back like AJ Dillon (pictured). I would not want to be trying to tackle Dillon on Sunday night. I remember the best game of his rookie season came in a late-season game in poor weather against the Titans.

I haven’t fully worked up numbers, but in general I tend to like the bigger backs in adverse conditions, rather than the small guys who rely more on moves and speed. So in the projections file, I moved Dillon ahead of Jones yesterday. When the original product came out on Wednesday, I had Jones as the best Green Bay back, but Dillon moved ahead of him in the Friday supplement. (That’s a tough call, in my opinion, with Jones being the starter but it being a one-two punch backfield.)

Since 2000, 26 offenses have played in games in single-digit temperatures. They have averaged 121 rushing yards in those games, with 23 touchdowns. (And the backs have averaged 4.3 yards per carry.)

RUSHING PRODUCTION IN COLD-WEATHER GAMES (since 2000)
YearTeamOppResultAttYdsAvgTDTmp
2021Green BayMIN??????
2021Minnesotaat GB??????
2017Green BayMINL 0-16241134.7010
2017Minnesotaat GBW 16-0331123.4010
2016Kansas CityTENL 17-19281575.621
2016Tennesseeat KCW 19-17291485.121
2015Seattleat MINW 10-928973.50-6
2015MinnesotaSEAL 9-1029582.00-6
2013Dallasat CHIL 28-45281987.118
2013San Franciscoat GBW 23-20301675.615
2013ChicagoDALW 45-28321494.718
2013Green BaySFL 20-23311244.015
2013Green BayATLW 22-21331123.419
2013Atlantaat GBL 21-2223833.609
2008Kansas CityMIAL 31-38211808.6210
2008Miamiat KCW 38-31301685.6210
2008Houstonat GBW 24-21311414.603
2008Green BayHOUL 21-24201085.413
2008ChicagoGBW 20-1726742.912
2008Green Bayat CHIL 17-2029652.202
2007NY Giantsat GBW 23-20391343.42-1
2007Green BayNYGL 20-2314282.00-1
2003New EnglandTENW 17-1427963.614
2003Tennesseeat NEL 14-1726843.214
2000Kansas CityDENW 20-7412646.429
2000Jacksonvilleat CINL 14-17341143.419
2000CincinnatiJAXW 17-14271063.919
2000Denverat KCL 7-2014533.809

—Ian Allan