Weather will be more of a factor this week. Especially in Green Bay, where the forecast suggests the Sunday night game against the Vikings will be played in temperatures of 3-6 degrees. What kind of effect, if any, will that have on those offenses?
Big numbers have been put up in the past in suspect weather, after all. The defenses, of course, are also having to deal with the conditions. I remember Antonio Freeman having one of the best games of his career in the snow late in the late in the ‘90s. And Matt Flynn in a Week 17 snow game threw 6 TD passes.
But here we’re talking about now only cold but also arctic conditions. This one should be more similar to that NFC Championship game between the Giants and Packers in 2007, when it was so cold some of the logos were falling off the helmet.
I played around with the numbers some on this, and there is a correlation between cold weather and decreased passing production. Since 2000, there have been 13 games played in temperatures of 10 degrees or colder. In those games, the offenses averaged only 207 passing yards, with 31 TDs and 21 interceptions – just over a touchdown per game. (For those who are interested, 58 percent passing in those games, and with 48 sacks for those 26 offenses).
Since 2015, there have been only three games played in temperatures below 10 degrees. Only one of the six offenses in those games passed for more than 160.
So for the Vikings-Packers this year, I have little interest in the Minnesota passing game (with journeyman Sean Mannion at the helm). For Green Bay, I have dialed down the passing projection, lowering guys like Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams on my board. Previously I thought Rodgers had a good chance of maybe going for 300 yards and 3 TDs; now I’m thinking more likely to finish with something like 250 and 2. (In the file, I believe I lowered him by about 40 yards and over half of a TD pass.)
PASSING PRODUCTION IN COLD-WEATHER GAMES (since 2000) | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Tm | Opp | Result | Com | Att | Yds | TD | Int | Tmp |
2021 | Green Bay | MIN | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2021 | Minnesota | at GB | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2017 | Green Bay | MIN | L 0-16 | 17 | 40 | 126 | 0 | 2 | 10 |
2017 | Minnesota | at GB | W 16-0 | 14 | 25 | 124 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
2016 | Tennessee | at KC | W 19-17 | 19 | 33 | 241 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
2016 | Kansas City | TEN | L 17-19 | 15 | 28 | 159 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
2015 | Seattle | at MIN | W 10-9 | 13 | 26 | 129 | 1 | 1 | -6 |
2015 | Minnesota | SEA | L 9-10 | 17 | 24 | 125 | 0 | 0 | -6 |
2013 | Chicago | DAL | W 45-28 | 27 | 36 | 341 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
2013 | Atlanta | at GB | L 21-22 | 20 | 35 | 202 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
2013 | Green Bay | ATL | W 22-21 | 24 | 32 | 222 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
2013 | San Francisco | at GB | W 23-20 | 16 | 30 | 214 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
2013 | Green Bay | SF | L 20-23 | 17 | 26 | 157 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
2013 | Dallas | at CHI | L 28-45 | 14 | 25 | 130 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
2008 | Houston | at GB | W 24-21 | 28 | 42 | 408 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
2008 | Kansas City | MIA | L 31-38 | 20 | 41 | 312 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
2008 | Green Bay | at CHI | L 17-20 | 24 | 39 | 260 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
2008 | Miami | at KC | W 38-31 | 26 | 34 | 235 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
2008 | Green Bay | HOU | L 21-24 | 19 | 30 | 279 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
2008 | Chicago | GB | W 20-17 | 14 | 27 | 136 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
2007 | NY Giants | at GB | W 23-20 | 21 | 40 | 243 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
2007 | Green Bay | NYG | L 20-23 | 19 | 35 | 236 | 2 | 2 | -1 |
2003 | New England | TEN | W 17-14 | 21 | 41 | 201 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
2003 | Tennessee | at NE | L 14-17 | 18 | 26 | 200 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
2000 | Denver | at KC | L 7-20 | 22 | 35 | 225 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
2000 | Jacksonville | at CIN | L 14-17 | 19 | 28 | 162 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
2000 | Kansas City | DEN | W 20-7 | 14 | 28 | 160 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
2000 | Cincinnati | JAX | W 17-14 | 10 | 22 | 157 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
I don’t think the weather is as much of a factor for the running backs. They might instead be enhanced by the conditions. Guys like Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon might get more carries than they would have if the game were being played in a dome.
And if it’s about 5 degrees, that might translate into a few more broken tackles, especially for a big back like AJ Dillon (pictured). I would not want to be trying to tackle Dillon on Sunday night. I remember the best game of his rookie season came in a late-season game in poor weather against the Titans.
I haven’t fully worked up numbers, but in general I tend to like the bigger backs in adverse conditions, rather than the small guys who rely more on moves and speed. So in the projections file, I moved Dillon ahead of Jones yesterday. When the original product came out on Wednesday, I had Jones as the best Green Bay back, but Dillon moved ahead of him in the Friday supplement. (That’s a tough call, in my opinion, with Jones being the starter but it being a one-two punch backfield.)
Since 2000, 26 offenses have played in games in single-digit temperatures. They have averaged 121 rushing yards in those games, with 23 touchdowns. (And the backs have averaged 4.3 yards per carry.)
RUSHING PRODUCTION IN COLD-WEATHER GAMES (since 2000) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Opp | Result | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Tmp |
2021 | Green Bay | MIN | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2021 | Minnesota | at GB | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2017 | Green Bay | MIN | L 0-16 | 24 | 113 | 4.7 | 0 | 10 |
2017 | Minnesota | at GB | W 16-0 | 33 | 112 | 3.4 | 0 | 10 |
2016 | Kansas City | TEN | L 17-19 | 28 | 157 | 5.6 | 2 | 1 |
2016 | Tennessee | at KC | W 19-17 | 29 | 148 | 5.1 | 2 | 1 |
2015 | Seattle | at MIN | W 10-9 | 28 | 97 | 3.5 | 0 | -6 |
2015 | Minnesota | SEA | L 9-10 | 29 | 58 | 2.0 | 0 | -6 |
2013 | Dallas | at CHI | L 28-45 | 28 | 198 | 7.1 | 1 | 8 |
2013 | San Francisco | at GB | W 23-20 | 30 | 167 | 5.6 | 1 | 5 |
2013 | Chicago | DAL | W 45-28 | 32 | 149 | 4.7 | 1 | 8 |
2013 | Green Bay | SF | L 20-23 | 31 | 124 | 4.0 | 1 | 5 |
2013 | Green Bay | ATL | W 22-21 | 33 | 112 | 3.4 | 1 | 9 |
2013 | Atlanta | at GB | L 21-22 | 23 | 83 | 3.6 | 0 | 9 |
2008 | Kansas City | MIA | L 31-38 | 21 | 180 | 8.6 | 2 | 10 |
2008 | Miami | at KC | W 38-31 | 30 | 168 | 5.6 | 2 | 10 |
2008 | Houston | at GB | W 24-21 | 31 | 141 | 4.6 | 0 | 3 |
2008 | Green Bay | HOU | L 21-24 | 20 | 108 | 5.4 | 1 | 3 |
2008 | Chicago | GB | W 20-17 | 26 | 74 | 2.9 | 1 | 2 |
2008 | Green Bay | at CHI | L 17-20 | 29 | 65 | 2.2 | 0 | 2 |
2007 | NY Giants | at GB | W 23-20 | 39 | 134 | 3.4 | 2 | -1 |
2007 | Green Bay | NYG | L 20-23 | 14 | 28 | 2.0 | 0 | -1 |
2003 | New England | TEN | W 17-14 | 27 | 96 | 3.6 | 1 | 4 |
2003 | Tennessee | at NE | L 14-17 | 26 | 84 | 3.2 | 1 | 4 |
2000 | Kansas City | DEN | W 20-7 | 41 | 264 | 6.4 | 2 | 9 |
2000 | Jacksonville | at CIN | L 14-17 | 34 | 114 | 3.4 | 1 | 9 |
2000 | Cincinnati | JAX | W 17-14 | 27 | 106 | 3.9 | 1 | 9 |
2000 | Denver | at KC | L 7-20 | 14 | 53 | 3.8 | 0 | 9 |
—Ian Allan