The Raiders are hosting the Chargers on Sunday with a playoff berth hanging in the balance, and Josh Jacobs looms as a key guy. Los Angeles ranks 30th in run defense. Can Jacobs be the guy who lifts them into the postseason?
I’m not sure that he can, and I speak from experience. I have been burned a couple of times trying to match up running backs against that defense. Najee Harris, Joe Mixon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire did not shred that defense quite like I thought they would in recent games. The Chargers are playing better now against the run than they were at the start of the season, when the allowed over 185 rushing yards in four of five games at one point.
Most of the time, anyway. Rex Burkhead went off against them two weeks ago. If it’s that run defense that shows up, then I want Josh Jacobs at No. 2 among running backs for Week 18, just behind Jonathan Taylor.
But when we look at the big-picture stats, they show that the Chargers aren’t the ridiculous sieve against the run that they were in beginning of the season. Comparing the first eight games for the last eight games for each team, in fact, the Chargers have the 3rd-most improved run defense in the league, allowing 50 fewer rushing yards per game.
Also note that when the Raiders played at Los Angeles in Week 4, that was one of the few games back then when the Chargers played well against the run, allowing only 48 yards.
The overall numbers for all teams appear below. Using standard (not PPR) scoring, the stats indicate that the 49ers, Chargers, Eagles, Ravens and Kansas City have had the league’s most improved defenses (in their last eight games).
The least improved include the Steelers, Jaguars, Browns, Bills and Patriots.
| DEFENSES AGAINST THE RUN (1st vs. 2nd H) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | G 1-8 | G 9-16 | Diff |
| San Francisco | 1053-12-177.3 | 643-5-94.3 | -83.0 |
| Kansas City | 974-10-157.4 | 834-2-95.4 | -62.0 |
| • LA Chargers | 1293-11-195.3 | 894-10-149.4 | -45.9 |
| Philadelphia | 988-9-152.8 | 675-7-109.5 | -43.3 |
| Baltimore | 734-9-127.4 | 623-4-86.3 | -41.1 |
| Miami | 926-9-146.6 | 807-5-110.7 | -35.9 |
| Tennessee | 806-8-128.6 | 568-6-92.8 | -35.8 |
| Green Bay | 920-8-140.0 | 836-4-107.6 | -32.4 |
| Houston | 1185-14-202.5 | 1109-11-176.9 | -25.6 |
| Las Vegas | 1068-8-154.8 | 790-9-133.0 | -21.8 |
| Arizona | 961-4-120.1 | 789-4-102.9 | -17.2 |
| NY Jets | 1066-15-196.6 | 1115-12-183.5 | -13.1 |
| Detroit | 1076-10-167.6 | 1098-8-157.8 | -9.8 |
| Chicago | 1000-8-148.0 | 1023-6-138.3 | -9.7 |
| Seattle | 1021-6-138.1 | 793-9-133.3 | -4.8 |
| Denver | 807-6-116.7 | 950-3-113.0 | -3.7 |
| New Orleans | 902-5-120.2 | 1006-3-118.6 | -1.6 |
| NY Giants | 986-7-140.6 | 981-7-140.1 | -.5 |
| Minnesota | 1093-7-151.3 | 1039-8-151.9 | .6 |
| LA Rams | 827-8-130.7 | 792-9-133.2 | 2.5 |
| Cincinnati | 755-7-117.5 | 782-7-120.2 | 2.7 |
| Dallas | 808-7-122.8 | 961-5-126.1 | 3.3 |
| Washington | 821-7-124.1 | 860-7-128.0 | 3.9 |
| Carolina | 854-6-121.4 | 996-8-147.6 | 26.2 |
| Indianapolis | 870-2-99.0 | 883-8-136.3 | 37.3 |
| Atlanta | 985-7-140.5 | 1062-12-178.2 | 37.7 |
| Tampa Bay | 624-4-86.4 | 839-7-125.9 | 39.5 |
| New England | 590-5-89.0 | 937-6-129.7 | 40.7 |
| Cleveland | 678-6-103.8 | 1100-7-152.0 | 48.2 |
| Jacksonville | 827-10-142.7 | 1206-12-192.6 | 49.9 |
| Buffalo | 685-6-104.5 | 1133-13-191.3 | 86.8 |
| Pittsburgh | 878-4-111.8 | 1356-12-207.6 | 95.8 |
On the chart above, the three-number chunks show rushing yards, rushing touchdowns and fantasy points (6 for TDs, 1 for every 10 yards).
Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com
—Ian Allan