JaMarr Chase played yesterday, DeVonta Smith is playing today, and it serves as a reminder that rookie receivers are making an impact more quickly than they have in the past. They’re getting acclimated into offenses and affecting games.
In each of the last two years, four rookie receivers have finished with top-30 numbers (that’s using PPR scoring). The Bengals have two of those guys (Chase and Tee Higgins). Another three will be playing today: Smith, CeeDee Lamb and Chase Claypool.
For fantasy purposes, I think the takeaway is that we shouldn’t be afraid to pull the trigger on rookie receivers. Some of those guys are going to outperform their draft position significantly, helping to swing leagues.
It’s easier said than done, of course. I could see the potential in Amon-Ra St. Brown when they drafted him, but he looked pretty ordinary in their preseason games, catching a few painfully short passes – in August, he looked like he would be a modest slot receiver. And Chase was the most drop-plagued receiver in the league in the preseason, looking like he maybe forgot how to play football while not playing at all in 2020.
Three receivers last year were selected early in the draft, and they all hit – Chase, Waddle, Smith. More commonly, however, the instant-impact rookie receivers have been the less obvious candidates. In the last 10 years, 26 wide receivers have finished with top-30 numbers in their first season; over half of those guys weren’t drafted in the first round.
| ROOKIE RECEIVERS WITH TOP-30 NUMBERS (last 10 years) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player (round) | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2012 | • T.Y. Hilton, Ind. (3) | 50 | 861 | 17.2 | 8 | 187.0 | 28 |
| 2012 | Justin Blackmon, Jac. | 64 | 865 | 13.5 | 5 | 184.8 | 29 |
| 2013 | • Keenan Allen, S.D. (3) | 71 | 1,046 | 14.7 | 8 | 223.6 | 18 |
| 2014 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 91 | 1,305 | 14.3 | 12 | 297.0 | 8 |
| 2014 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 68 | 1,051 | 15.5 | 12 | 245.1 | 13 |
| 2014 | Kelvin Benjamin, Car. | 73 | 1,008 | 13.8 | 9 | 227.8 | 16 |
| 2014 | • Jordan Matthews, Phil. (2) | 67 | 872 | 13.0 | 8 | 202.2 | 25 |
| 2014 | Sammy Watkins, Buff. | 65 | 982 | 15.1 | 6 | 200.0 | 27 |
| 2014 | • Jarvis Landry, Mia. (2) | 84 | 758 | 9.0 | 5 | 189.4 | 30 |
| 2015 | Amari Cooper, Oak. | 72 | 1,070 | 14.9 | 6 | 214.7 | 21 |
| 2016 | • Michael Thomas, N.O. (2) | 92 | 1,137 | 12.4 | 9 | 259.7 | 7 |
| 2016 | • Tyreek Hill, K.C. (5) | 61 | 593 | 9.7 | 12 | 219.0 | 18 |
| 2017 | • JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. (2) | 58 | 917 | 15.8 | 8 | 197.7 | 20 |
| 2017 | • Cooper Kupp, LAR (3) | 62 | 869 | 14.0 | 5 | 178.9 | 25 |
| 2018 | Calvin Ridley, Atl. | 64 | 821 | 12.8 | 10 | 208.8 | 20 |
| 2019 | • A.J. Brown, Ten. (2) | 52 | 1,051 | 20.2 | 9 | 217.1 | 22 |
| 2019 | • DK Metcalf, Sea. (2) | 58 | 900 | 15.5 | 7 | 193.1 | 29 |
| 2019 | • Terry McLaurin, Was. (3) | 58 | 919 | 15.8 | 7 | 191.9 | 30 |
| 2020 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 88 | 1,400 | 15.9 | 7 | 274.2 | 6 |
| 2020 | CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 74 | 935 | 12.6 | 7 | 219.7 | 22 |
| 2020 | • Chase Claypool, Pitt. (2) | 62 | 873 | 14.1 | 11 | 216.9 | 23 |
| 2020 | • Tee Higgins, Cin. (2) | 67 | 908 | 13.6 | 6 | 196.6 | 28 |
| 2021 | JaMarr Chase, Cin. | 81 | 1,455 | 18.0 | 13 | 306.6 | 5 |
| 2021 | Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 104 | 1,015 | 9.8 | 7 | 247.8 | 12 |
| 2021 | • Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. (4) | 90 | 912 | 10.1 | 6 | 227.3 | 22 |
| 2021 | DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 64 | 916 | 14.3 | 5 | 187.6 | 30 |
—Ian Allan