A Cincinnati win wouldn't be surprising. Even before their playoff run, the Bengals went 4-2 against postseason participants during the season. (The Rams were just 2-5 against playoff teams.) They've been competitive against quality opposition all year long. They dominated the second half of the AFC Championship Game.
But there some matchup concerns -- most notably, their offensive line against the Rams pass rush -- that are troubling. Plus the Rams dominated for most of two playoff wins, while the Bengals could easily have lost all three games. The experience edge (some coaches and a few key players) also favors the Rams, who lost in this game three years ago.
Win or lose, Cincinnati's offense should be solid. The offenses the Rams have been able to shut down of late (including the playoff wins over the Cardinals and 49ers) had less going for them talent-wise than the Bengals. Decent chance the Bengals make it up to 3 TDs in what should be a higher-scoring game.
Quarterback: As with the Rams, the passing game should lead the way. Cincinnati was a lot better passing the ball (7th) than running it (23rd), while Los Angeles was similar defensively (24th against the pass, 6th against the run). During the season Joe Burrow averaged 288 yards and just over 2 TDs per game, and he's been only slightly off that, on average, in the playoffs (281 passing yards, with 2, 0 and 2 TDs). The Rams had the NFL's 3rd-ranked pass rush (50 sacks), which is a concern, with Burrow taking 51 during the season.
But Los Angeles still gave up 263 yards per game, and Burrow threw for 348 at Tennessee in the Divisional Round even while absorbing 9 sacks. That pressure is a worry, but it's not as if Cincinnati will come out emphasizing its bottom-1o ground game against the Rams' top-10 run defense. They'll take their chances with Burrow passing it and hope he wins more of those plays than their protection up front loses. The Rams allowed just 17 touchdown passes, and Burrow (who didn't throw any while getting sacked 9 times by the Titans) was a little light in that area in the six games he took 5-plus sacks -- a total of 7 TD passes in those games, with 8 interceptions. The Rams had 19 interceptions during the season and Burrow threw 14. One of those types of plays could prove pivotal in this matchup. We're putting Burrow down for above-average yardage, but 2 TDs looks like his ceiling.
Running backs: Despite the Rams' excellence against the run (6th) they allowed more touchdowns on the ground (18) than through the air (17). That's continued into the postseason (3 passing and 3 rushing scores allowed). So while Joe Mixon is unlikely to post big rushing numbers, a touchdown at some point looks reasonable. He accounted for 13 of their 16 rushing scores in the regular season (Burrow had 2 of the others) and their only one in the postseason. Rushing yards have been harder to come by; 88 at Kansas City, but just 46-65 in his seven previous games. That's more likely to be the area he winds up in here. But he's been a big part of the passing game lately (26 receptions for 216 yards and a touchdown in his last five games), so very likely he finishes over 80 total yards again.
Samaje Perine turned a short pass into a 41-yard touchdown reception at Kansas City, arguably the biggest offensive play of that game. That started the comeback from a 21-3 deficit. But Perine would need to turn in another of those big plays to really be fantasy relevant. He's been playing around a quarter of the snaps for the last half-season, and was a busier receiver in the middle of the year than lately. Since an eight-game stretch where he caught 19 balls, Perine has caught a total of 9 balls in his last six games; 8 catches for 35 yards other than that touchdown. Rookie Chris Evans is returning kicks but has just 2 offensive touches in the playoffs.
Wide receivers: Former LSU teammates Burrow and JaMarr Chase taking over this game is certainly in the realm of possibilities. They did it four different times in the regular season, with Chase going over 200 yards in big wins against Baltimore and Kansas City, and he's been very good in the playoffs, catching 20 passes for an average of 93 yards, with 1 TD. The Rams can stick Jalen Ramsey on him for a good portion of the game, but both Deebo Samuel (twice) and Mike Evans won that matchup plenty of times in the last month. In general, a lesser situation for Chase, but we're not about to underestimate him.
Perhaps Tee Higgins sees a few more passes. Brandon Aiyuk caught 10 passes for 176 yards in the two recent San Francisco games when Samuel drew more defensive attention. Higgins would be a No. 1 on a lot of teams, and has stepped up the last two playoff games (13 catches for 199 yards) after catching only one pass against the Raiders. Tough matchup for touchdowns, with the Rams allowing only 10 TDs to wide receivers during the season, but he should be busy. The Rams secondary took some injury hits over the course of the season, particularly at safety, with Eric Weddle being brought out of retirement less than a month ago.
Tyler Boyd is the best No. 3 receiver in this game, having gone over 85 yards four times during the season and getting in the end zone in four straight down the stretch (the last three regular-season games and the Raiders win). But he's finished under 40 yards in four straight. Boyd might see a few more targets with Cincinnati possibly down its starting tight end, but would likely need to score to pay off in a lineup.
Tight end: Both No. 1 tight ends in this game suffered knee injuries in the conference championship games. C.J. Uzomah insists he won't be missing the biggest game of his life, and we'll go along with that, but he didn't practice at all last week and will likely be limited if he practices this week. Look for him to have a limited role, with Drew Sample playing more than usual. Unlike the Rams' No. 2, Sample shouldn't do anything as a receiver. He caught a single 4-yard pass while playing 90 percent of the snaps at Kansas City (with Uzomah sidelined early). George Kittle scored against the Rams two weeks ago and Rob Gronkowski caught 4 for 85, but Los Angeles defended the position well (just 4 TDs in the regular season by tight ends), and a gimpy (or even a healthy) Uzomah isn't on those players' level anyway.
Kicker: He's just a rookie, but Evan McPherson has been one of the stars of the postseason, drilling 12 field goals (game-winners the last two weeks). He's got a big leg, hitting 12 of 14 from 50-plus this year, including the playoffs; if there's an opportunity in this game for a field goal from 50 yards, McPherson looks like the more likely of the two kickers to get, and convert, that chance. Better matchup, too, with the Rams allowing 30 field goals during the season, compared to just 23 allowed by the Bengals. Only edge for Matt Gay is the Rams being slight favorites in this game.
Defense: The Bengals finished above-average in sacks (42), average in interceptions (13). Matthew Stafford wasn't a good matchup for sacks (just 30) but threw 17 picks, 4 of which were returned for touchdowns. If Bad Stafford shows up -- he threw 8 interceptions in the last four games of the regular season -- things will get very interesting. But Stafford has thrown only 1 interception in his three postseason games. Cincinnati recovered just 8 fumbles during the season, and the Rams lost only 5. Three at Tampa Bay, including a pair by Cam Akers, but none in their other two playoff games.
Next: Super Bowl Player Rankings.
--Andy Richardson