Just two teams left, and maybe not a ton of huge decisions for anyone to make. But there are daily competitions and gambling-type wagers, and the curiosity factor of how to rank the remaining 20 or so skill players. So we'll do just that over the next few days, starting with the NFC Champions (ironically the "away" team in a game which will be played on their home field).
Overview:
There's not much history between these two teams, and very little of what there is is good. They've played only five times this century, and three of those were one-sided (decided by at least 14 points). The most recent meeting was a 24-10 Rams win in 2019, relevant (perhaps) only in that both teams put up good passing numbers, which may well happen again. But the quarterbacks were Jared Goff (372 yards and 2 TDs) and Andy Dalton (329 and 1). Cooper Kupp caught 7 passes for 220 yards and a touchdown in that game, while Tyler Boyd (6 for 65) and Joe Mixon (77 total yards and a touchdown) were the productive Bengals still with the team. ... The betting line opened with the Rams favored by 3.5, with an over-under of 50.5 (so a 27-24 type game). Currently the Rams are favored by 4.5, but the over-under has dropped to 48.5 (so about 26-22). While there's a Team of Destiny type feel to these plucky Bengals, who no one figured would be here, the betting line looks fair; the Rams were a little more impressive getting here. If you ordered the six opponents both participants beat to get here, two of the top 3 and arguably three of the top 4 would have come from the NFC side. (This is an opinion, of course.)
L.A. RAMS:
Quarterback: Matthew Stafford has been what the Rams were hoping for when they acquired him last offseason. Obviously: they're in the Super Bowl. Jared Goff also took the Rams to a Super Bowl, but Stafford just threw 41 touchdowns (9 more than Goff has in any season) and he's followed that up by delivering 8 total touchdowns in three playoff games. Goff threw just 4 TDs in six career playoff games; just 1 TD the year the Rams went to the Super Bowl. No one could reasonably make the argument that Goff would have outdueled Tom Brady in the Divisional Round or brought the Rams back from a 17-7 fourth-quarter deficit in the NFC Championship. In the big moments late in both games, Stafford delivered.
The Bengals are a favorable matchup for quarterbacks. Just 27th in pass defense during the season, allowing 265 yards per game with 26 touchdown passes (average). Derek Carr (310 yards) and Ryan Tannehill (220) each threw just 1 TD, but Patrick Mahomes came out and led three long scoring drives, finishing each with touchdown passes, in the first half. That's the level that Stafford and this passing game is capable of approaching. Mahomes proceeded to throw for only 55 yards, with a pair of interceptions, after halftime; he also took 4 sacks. Cincinnati had 42 sacks during the season (11th) and is clearly capable of harassing Stafford into a few mistakes. He threw 17 interceptions during the season (4 returned for touchdowns), but just 1 in the playoffs.
We're thinking Stafford should look more like first-half Mahomes this week. The Rams ranked 5th in passing offense, averaging 288 yards, and Stafford has thrown multiple touchdowns in 9 of his last 10 contests (16 of 20 on the season). If the Rams score 3 TDs in this game, and they probably will, at least 2 and potentially all 3 will come on pass plays. Los Angeles scored about 80 percent of its touchdowns this year on passes (41 of 51 during the season, 6 of 8 in the playoffs), while the Bengals have allowed almost exactly two-thirds on passes (31 of 47). If the Rams score 4 TDs, Stafford would be very likely to throw 3.
Running backs: For Cam Akers to average 18 carries in three playoffs games just 6 months after tearing his Achilles is unprecedented. Since returning (including Week 18) he's caught 8 of the 9 passes thrown his way for 72 yards, with a 40-yard catch-and-run in there. It hasn't all been good, of course. Akers' 2 fumbles (one of the soft variety) nearly lost the Bucs game, and he's averaged just 2.8 yards per attempt in the postseason. After playing over 80 percent of the time at Tampa Bay, he was outsnapped 44-30 by Sony Michel against San Francisco. Michel was pretty awful in that one (10 carries, 16 yards) and doesn't have the excuse of coming back from injury. The Rams could potentially have Darrell Henderson active for this game; he's been on IR throughout the playoffs with a knee injury, but was designated for return prior to the NFC Championship. But at best he'd sprinkle on for a few passing game chances.
Akers should be the main back, with Michel picking up potentially 30-40 percent of the carries. That could include goal-line work; Michel was used in short-yardage and some red-zone situations against San Francisco, possibly a response to Akers' fumbles at Tampa Bay. Akers is more likely to be involved as a receiver, although Henderson would be a possibility. They'll face a Bengals defense that ranked 5th against the run during the season, but hasn't been nearly as effective in the playoffs. All three opponents averaged over 5.0 per attempt; Kansas City curiously didn't run it enough, even after taking a 21-3 lead (just 12 carries as a team). But would be a big surprise if the Rams, just 25th in rushing during the season, came out and leaned on the running game here. We're expecting modest numbers; perhaps 100 yards and about a 50 percent chance of a rushing score (as a team).
Wide receivers: When these teams met in 2019, Cooper Kupp -- one of the few players from that game still around -- caught 7 passes for 220 yards and a touchdown. He's coming off one of the all-time great seasons by a wide receiver, averaging 8.5 catches for 115 yards and 1 TD per game, and it's been more of the same in the playoffs: 25 catches for 386 yards and 4 TDs in three games. The Bengals also have a stellar group of wideouts, but little reason to rank anyone ahead of Kupp.
Odell Beckham has stepped up his game, particularly in the postseason. Even with Kupp putting up even better number than he did in the regular season, Beckham has caught 19 passes for 236 yards and a touchdown in the three games. Dipping back into the regular season he's scored in six of his last 10 games. In his last two full games against the Bengals (with Cleveland, during the 2019 and 2020 seasons) he went 3-81-1 and 4-74-1. Still a No. 1 type talent, but he'll be the 2nd-biggest concern of Cincinnati's defense.
With that duo dominating, there hasn't been much left for Van Jefferson. Most of his best games came before Beckham had settled in. Jefferson in his last eight (including the playoffs) has caught more than 2 passes in only one of those games, with 1 TD. That's despite playing plenty (at least two-thirds of the time in all but one of those games). The Rams might be short-handed at tight end in this one, possibly resulting in a few more looks for the No. 3, but that was the case in the NFC Championship (and Jefferson caught only 2 passes for 9 yards). Ben Skowronek famously couldn't haul in a 38-yard touchdown against San Francisco; it looked like he never really saw it right until it bounced off his hands. But that opportunity is unlikely to be repeated (Skowronek hasn't otherwise been targeted in the postseason).
Tight ends: Tyler Higbee sprained an MCL early on against San Francisco. He hasn't practiced at all; if this were any other game he could safely be ruled out right now. Odds are he'll try to give it a go and be active, but most likely Kendall Blanton will be the main tight end. Blanton held up fine as an every-down player in the last game, catching all 5 passes thrown his way for 57 yards. He also caught 2 passes and a touchdown at Tampa Bay. Blanton would look even more secure if Higbee is inactive for the Super Bowl; in our projections we're thinking Higbee will likely play, but probably considerably less than Blanton. Darren Waller (7 for 76) and Travis Kelce (10 for 95, TD) were huge against this defense in the playoffs, although neither Higbee or Blanton is on that level.
Kicker: Matt Gay was one of the most consistent and productive kickers during the regular season, though he's lost a bit of his luster in the postseason. He was surprisingly short on a 47-yarder that would have iced the win over Tampa Bay (even the 30-yard game-winner wasn't a no-doubter), then wasn't even close on a 54-yard attempt against San Francisco. Little doubt which kicker you'd rather have trying a long kick in this one. But the offense tends to get him plenty of opportunities (9 in the playoffs), and kickers tend to perform better from teams that win, which is how we're leaning with the Rams.
Defense: Great as Joe Burrow has been in his second season, he's been just fine to put a defense up against. In the regular season he was sacked 51 times in 16 games, with 14 interceptions, and in the playoffs he's been dropped 12 more times while throwing 2 picks. Most of those sacks (9) came in one game against Tennessee, but the Rams, with 50 sacks during the season, were about a sack per game better than Cincinnati's other two opponents, Kansas City (31) and Las Vegas (35). The Rams also had 19 interceptions, and have added 4 more in the postseason. Not as good for fumbles, surprisingly. Despite all that pass rush, Los Angeles recovered only 6 fumbles during the season, while Cincinnati lost just 7. Still, it's not hard to envision a scenario where Aaron Donald and company control the line of scrimmage, coming away with 4-plus sacks and a takeaway or two. Brandon Powell had a punt return touchdown during the season.
Next: Cincinnati, followed by Super Bowl Player Rankings.
--Andy Richardson