It's mock draft time, when it's easy to see everyone with an interest in the NFL and fantasy football posting mock drafts. They're easy enough to find with online searches or by simply going to NFL.com. What's not as easy to find are first-round running back selections.
The top talents include Iowa State's Breece Hall (pictured), Texas A&M's Isaiah Spiller and Michigan State's Kenny Walker, among others. But none of those backs is showing up as a likely first-rounder (though it's pretty early in the process). Last year there were two (Najee Harris and Travis Etienne), and the two years before that just one (Clyde Edwards-Helaire in 2020 and Josh Jacobs in 2019). There were three in 2018 (Saquon Barkley, Rashaad Penny and Sony Michel), and very few (arguably, none) of these backs has exactly paved the way for teams to be thinking about using their first-round pick on a player at the position this year.
A lack of first-rounders, though, need not concern fantasy teams too much. There will still be viable rookie running backs in fantasy leagues, perhaps those above-mentioned players. The first round doesn't have a monopoly on top fantasy backs.
Since 2000, there have been 51 running backs selected in the first round of the draft; on average, 2-3 per year. About a quarter of them (13) have finished in the top 15 at the position in their rookie seasons. There have been only slightly fewer (9) who were drafted in the second round over that time period to perform that well in their rookie seasons, and also 9 drafted from the third round on. That's not counting the three that weren't drafted at all.
In total, 34 rookie running backs have put up top-15 numbers (PPR) in their rookie season. Just over a third of those players (in bold) were drafted in the first round. In the table, rookies are sorted by fantasy points.
ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS FINISHING IN TOP 15, 2000-PRESENT (PPR) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rd | Year | Player | Run | No | Rec | TD | PPR | Rk |
1 | 2018 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 1307 | 91 | 721 | 15 | 385.8 | 2 |
1 | 2016 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 1631 | 32 | 363 | 16 | 327.4 | 2 |
3 | 2017 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 728 | 81 | 826 | 14 | 322.4 | 3 |
2 | 2002 | Clinton Portis, Den. | 1508 | 33 | 364 | 17 | 322.2 | 7 |
1 | 2012 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 1454 | 49 | 472 | 12 | 313.6 | 2 |
2 | 2008 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 1238 | 63 | 477 | 12 | 306.5 | 2 |
1 | 2021 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 1200 | 74 | 467 | 10 | 300.7 | 3 |
3 | 2017 | Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 1327 | 53 | 455 | 11 | 297.2 | 4 |
6 | 2000 | Mike Anderson, Den. | 1487 | 23 | 169 | 15 | 280.6 | 11 |
2 | 2006 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 941 | 46 | 436 | 16 | 279.7 | 8 |
1 | 2001 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1236 | 59 | 367 | 10 | 279.3 | 6 |
3 | 2008 | Steve Slaton, Hou. | 1282 | 50 | 377 | 10 | 275.9 | 7 |
1 | 2006 | Reggie Bush, N.O. | 565 | 88 | 742 | 9 | 272.7 | 9 |
6 | 2012 | Alfred Morris, Was. | 1613 | 11 | 77 | 13 | 258.0 | 7 |
1 | 2007 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 1341 | 19 | 268 | 13 | 257.9 | 5 |
2 | 2020 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 1169 | 36 | 299 | 12 | 254.8 | 6 |
1 | 2012 | Trent Richardson, Cle. | 950 | 51 | 367 | 12 | 254.7 | 8 |
FA | 2020 | James Robinson, Jac. | 1070 | 49 | 344 | 10 | 252.4 | 7 |
1 | 2008 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 1228 | 43 | 260 | 10 | 251.8 | 11 |
2 | 2013 | Eddie Lacy, G.B. | 1178 | 35 | 257 | 11 | 244.5 | 8 |
4 | 2003 | Domanick Williams, Hou. | 1031 | 47 | 351 | 8 | 233.2 | 14 |
5 | 2016 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 1313 | 29 | 298 | 7 | 232.1 | 10 |
1 | 2017 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 435 | 80 | 651 | 7 | 230.6 | 9 |
1 | 2017 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 1040 | 36 | 302 | 10 | 230.2 | 10 |
1 | 2006 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | 1081 | 40 | 325 | 8 | 228.6 | 13 |
FA | 2001 | Dominic Rhodes, Ind. | 1104 | 34 | 224 | 10 | 226.8 | 12 |
2 | 2013 | Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 695 | 56 | 514 | 8 | 224.9 | 13 |
FA | 2018 | Phillip Lindsay, Den. | 1037 | 35 | 241 | 10 | 222.8 | 13 |
2 | 2019 | Miles Sanders, Phil. | 818 | 50 | 509 | 6 | 220.7 | 15 |
2 | 2013 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 860 | 45 | 399 | 8 | 218.9 | 15 |
3 | 2015 | David Johnson, Ariz. | 581 | 36 | 457 | 13 | 217.8 | 7 |
2 | 2014 | Jeremy Hill, Cin. | 1124 | 27 | 215 | 9 | 214.9 | 10 |
1 | 2015 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 1106 | 21 | 188 | 10 | 210.4 | 9 |
3 | 2020 | Antonio Gibson, Was. | 795 | 36 | 247 | 11 | 206.2 | 14 |
Being selected in the first round, if that happens for any running backs this year, is a plus. Those guys tend to get opportunities early, and teams are more patient with them, even if their play doesn't warrant it.
But the history suggests that plenty of Day 2 (Round 2-3) running backs will also make a quick impact. Not a big deal if there aren't any first-rounders at the position in April.