Fantasy Index

header banner img
OUR FANTASY BASEBALL MAGAZINE IS BACK! PRE-ORDER NOW
Win here.

Andy Richardson

Rookie running backs

Early mocks lack first-rounders

It's mock draft time, when it's easy to see everyone with an interest in the NFL and fantasy football posting mock drafts. They're easy enough to find with online searches or by simply going to NFL.com. What's not as easy to find are first-round running back selections.

The top talents include Iowa State's Breece Hall (pictured), Texas A&M's Isaiah Spiller and Michigan State's Kenny Walker, among others. But none of those backs is showing up as a likely first-rounder (though it's pretty early in the process). Last year there were two (Najee Harris and Travis Etienne), and the two years before that just one (Clyde Edwards-Helaire in 2020 and Josh Jacobs in 2019). There were three in 2018 (Saquon Barkley, Rashaad Penny and Sony Michel), and very few (arguably, none) of these backs has exactly paved the way for teams to be thinking about using their first-round pick on a player at the position this year.

A lack of first-rounders, though, need not concern fantasy teams too much. There will still be viable rookie running backs in fantasy leagues, perhaps those above-mentioned players. The first round doesn't have a monopoly on top fantasy backs.

Since 2000, there have been 51 running backs selected in the first round of the draft; on average, 2-3 per year. About a quarter of them (13) have finished in the top 15 at the position in their rookie seasons. There have been only slightly fewer (9) who were drafted in the second round over that time period to perform that well in their rookie seasons, and also 9 drafted from the third round on. That's not counting the three that weren't drafted at all.

In total, 34 rookie running backs have put up top-15 numbers (PPR) in their rookie season. Just over a third of those players (in bold) were drafted in the first round. In the table, rookies are sorted by fantasy points.

ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS FINISHING IN TOP 15, 2000-PRESENT (PPR)
RdYearPlayerRunNoRecTDPPRRk
12018Saquon Barkley, NYG13079172115385.82
12016Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.16313236316327.42
32017Alvin Kamara, N.O.7288182614322.43
22002Clinton Portis, Den.15083336417322.27
12012Doug Martin, T.B.14544947212313.62
22008Matt Forte, Chi.12386347712306.52
12021Najee Harris, Pitt.12007446710300.73
32017Kareem Hunt, K.C.13275345511297.24
62000Mike Anderson, Den.14872316915280.611
22006Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.9414643616279.78
12001LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.12365936710279.36
32008Steve Slaton, Hou.12825037710275.97
12006Reggie Bush, N.O.565887429272.79
62012Alfred Morris, Was.1613117713258.07
12007Adrian Peterson, Min.13411926813257.95
22020Jonathan Taylor, Ind.11693629912254.86
12012Trent Richardson, Cle.9505136712254.78
FA2020James Robinson, Jac.10704934410252.47
12008Chris Johnson, Ten.12284326010251.811
22013Eddie Lacy, G.B.11783525711244.58
42003Domanick Williams, Hou.1031473518233.214
52016Jordan Howard, Chi.1313292987232.110
12017Christian McCaffrey, Car.435806517230.69
12017Leonard Fournette, Jac.10403630210230.210
12006Joseph Addai, Ind.1081403258228.613
FA2001Dominic Rhodes, Ind.11043422410226.812
22013Giovani Bernard, Cin.695565148224.913
FA2018Phillip Lindsay, Den.10373524110222.813
22019Miles Sanders, Phil.818505096220.715
22013LeVeon Bell, Pitt.860453998218.915
32015David Johnson, Ariz.5813645713217.87
22014Jeremy Hill, Cin.1124272159214.910
12015Todd Gurley, St.L.11062118810210.49
32020Antonio Gibson, Was.7953624711206.214

Being selected in the first round, if that happens for any running backs this year, is a plus. Those guys tend to get opportunities early, and teams are more patient with them, even if their play doesn't warrant it.

But the history suggests that plenty of Day 2 (Round 2-3) running backs will also make a quick impact. Not a big deal if there aren't any first-rounders at the position in April.

Fantasy Index