To me, Kadarius Toney will be one of the more interesting question marks in the second halves of drafts this summer. He was hurt for most of his rookie season, but there were a couple of brief spurts where he looked like he might be pretty similar to those three standout receivers who were selected in the top dozen overall (JaMarr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith).
Toney caught 6 passes for 78 yards in New York’s upset win at New Orleans. A week later, he caught 10 passes for 189 yards at Dallas – looked like a young Odell Beckham in that game. In the last 30 years, only two rookie wide receivers have caught double-digit passes and finished with more receiving yards than Toney in a game (Chase, Anquan Boldin). Later in the year, Toney caught 7 passes for 40 yards in a game against the Bucs.
Not much to go on, of course. Toney otherwise wasn’t much of a factor at all. He had multiple injuries and landed on the COVID-reserve list multiple times. I can’t say with any certainty that he’ll even be the best receiver on his own team. Kenny Golladay was a disappointment last year but has more size and experience. And the Giants have been pretty dreadful in recent years. The hope would be that Brian Daboll can make a few adjustments and get that offense headed in the right direction.
But if Toney comes flying out of the gates with a couple of 100-yard games in September, we’ll all be kicking ourselves for not doing a better job of seeing it coming.
I did run some numbers on this – trying to look at guys who had big games as rookies, then seeing how they did in their second year. And those numbers appear in the chart below.
In the last 30 years, 46 rookie wide receivers have had games with at least 140 receiving yards. Of those 46, 13 finished with top-20 numbers in their second year (using PPR scoring), and they are tagged with double dots (••). All or almost all of those guys aren’t really similar to Toney, having shown a lot more in their first season. Especially guys like Randy Moss, Justin Jefferson, Beckham, Michael Thomas, A.J. Brown and DK Metcalf. Off the top of my head, I think all 13 of those wide receivers would have been selected far earlier in drafts than we’ll see Toney picked in any draft this summer.
There are 46 receivers listed below, and they finish all over the map. I see another 13 who didn’t finish with top-20 numbers but at least finished in the top 40. I’ve got those guys tagged with one black dot. But that leaves us, 20 of 46 not ranking in the top 40 in PPR production, and 11 of those players didn’t even finish in the top 80.
I think if we polished this list, eliminating players who clearly had established themselves as legit receivers in their first year, more than half would be modest performers in their second season. We might get back to 50-50 if we also tossed out some players that clearly weren’t going to be second-year stars (Donnie Avery, Oronde Gadsden, Terrance Williams, J.J. Nelson, etc.).
It’s awfully early, but if we are drafting today, I wouldn’t think Toney would be one of the first 40 wide receivers selected. I haven’t put together a list, but I would think he’d be in the top 50 – a speculative dart throw if the price is right. But let’s see how things transpire in the offseason and whether it seems Toney is headed in the right direction at offseason drills and preseason games.
In the chart below, there are 49 wide receivers listed – three from 2021 (in bold), and 46 other guys. For some of these players (such as Chase and Moss) they actually had more than one game with 140-plus yards. I’m showing only the best game for each player. They’re ordered by receiving yards in those rookie games, with the additional columns showing their production and positional rank for their second season.
| ROOKIE RECEIVERS WITH 140-YARD GAMES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Opp | Game | Next Yr | PPR | Rk |
| 2021 | JaMarr Chase, Cin. | KAN | 11-266-3 | ?-?-? | ? | ? |
| 2013 | Justin Blackmon, Jac. | HOU | 7-236-1 | 29-415-1 | 76.4 | 93 |
| 1997 | Eddie Kennison, St.L. | ATL | 5-226-3 | 25-404-0 | 66.7 | 76 |
| 2004 | Anquan Boldin, Ariz. | DET | 10-217-2 | 56-623-1 | 124.6 | 52 |
| 2015 | • Mike Evans, T.B. | WAS | 7-209-2 | 74-1206-3 | 212.6 | 22 |
| 2002 | •• Rod Gardner, Was. | CAR | 6-208-1 | 71-1006-8 | 219.7 | 19 |
| 2018 | •• JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | DET | 7-193-1 | 111-1426-7 | 298.9 | 8 |
| 1999 | •• Randy Moss, Min. | GB | 5-190-2 | 80-1413-11 | 303.0 | 3 |
| 2021 | Kadarius Toney, NYG | DAL | 10-189-0 | ?-?-? | ? | ? |
| 2018 | Keelan Cole, Jac. | HOU | 7-186-1 | 38-491-1 | 93.1 | 81 |
| 2015 | •• Odell Beckham, NYG | PHI | 12-185-1 | 96-1450-13 | 319.3 | 5 |
| 2007 | Hank Baskett, Phil. | ATL | 7-177-1 | 16-142-1 | 36.2 | 113 |
| 2021 | •• Justin Jefferson, Min. | TEN | 7-175-1 | 108-1616-10 | 332.8 | 4 |
| 1995 | Derrick Alexander, Cle. | NYG | 7-171-0 | 15-216-0 | 45.5 | 92 |
| 2003 | Antonio Bryant, Dall. | WAS | 7-170-1 | 39-550-2 | 106.0 | 66 |
| 2007 | •• Marques Colston, N.O. | PIT | 10-169-0 | 98-1202-11 | 284.2 | 8 |
| 2013 | • Michael Floyd, Ariz. | SF | 8-166-1 | 65-1041-5 | 199.1 | 27 |
| 1995 | Charles Johnson, Pitt. | SD | 4-165-2 | 38-432-0 | 80.2 | 78 |
| 2012 | • Torrey Smith, Balt. | CIN | 6-165-1 | 49-855-8 | 183.4 | 31 |
| 2009 | Eddie Royal, Den. | CLE | 6-164-1 | 37-345-0 | 83.6 | 81 |
| 2008 | •• Dwayne Bowe, K.C. | SD | 8-164-1 | 86-1022-7 | 230.2 | 16 |
| 2009 | Donnie Avery, St.L. | NE | 6-163-1 | 47-589-5 | 138.9 | 50 |
| 2020 | •• DK Metcalf, Sea. | PHI | 7-160-1 | 83-1303-10 | 273.3 | 7 |
| 2019 | TreQuan Smith, N.O. | PHI | 10-157-1 | 18-234-5 | 71.4 | 91 |
| 1995 | • Darnay Scott, Cin. | SEA | 7-157-0 | 52-821-5 | 165.2 | 33 |
| 2015 | •• Sammy Watkins, Buff. | NYJ | 3-157-1 | 60-1047-9 | 218.8 | 20 |
| 2019 | •• DJ Moore, Car. | DET | 7-157-1 | 87-1175-4 | 232.5 | 16 |
| 2017 | •• Michael Thomas, N.O. | ATL | 10-156-1 | 104-1245-5 | 258.5 | 6 |
| 2020 | Darius Slayton, NYG | PHI | 5-154-2 | 50-751-3 | 143.0 | 54 |
| 1999 | • Oronde Gadsden, Mia. | ATL | 9-153-0 | 48-803-6 | 164.3 | 40 |
| 2020 | •• A.J. Brown, Ten. | OAK | 5-153-2 | 70-1075-11 | 249.5 | 11 |
| 2014 | Terrance Williams, Dall. | DEN | 4-151-1 | 37-621-8 | 147.1 | 52 |
| 2011 | Jacoby Ford, Oak. | KAN | 6-148-0 | 19-279-1 | 62.0 | 101 |
| 2010 | Mohamed Massaquoi, Cle. | CIN | 8-148-0 | 36-483-2 | 101.5 | 73 |
| 1996 | • Chris Sanders, Hou. | DEN | 5-147-2 | 48-882-4 | 160.2 | 38 |
| 2020 | • Marquise Brown, Balt. | MIA | 4-147-2 | 58-769-8 | 183.0 | 36 |
| 2012 | • Denarius Moore, Oak. | BUF | 5-146-1 | 51-741-7 | 166.6 | 39 |
| 2019 | • Calvin Ridley, Atl. | NOR | 7-146-3 | 63-866-7 | 197.0 | 27 |
| 2010 | •• Jeremy Maclin, Phil. | DAL | 7-146-1 | 70-964-10 | 230.0 | 14 |
| 2005 | Michael Clayton, T.B. | SD | 9-145-1 | 32-372-0 | 69.4 | 89 |
| 2003 | Marc Boerigter, K.C. | SD | 5-144-2 | 11-158-0 | 26.8 | 119 |
| 1994 | • Sean Dawkins, Ind. | DAL | 8-144-0 | 51-742-5 | 155.2 | 35 |
| 2015 | • Martavis Bryant, Pitt. | NYJ | 4-143-1 | 50-765-6 | 172.2 | 39 |
| 2016 | J.J. Nelson, Ariz. | CIN | 4-142-1 | 34-568-6 | 141.1 | 56 |
| 2014 | • Keenan Allen, S.D. | DEN | 6-142-2 | 77-783-4 | 179.3 | 36 |
| 2021 | Elijah Moore, NYJ | MIA | 8-141-1 | ?-?-? | ? | ? |
| 2014 | Cordarrelle Patterson, Min. | BAL | 5-141-1 | 33-384-1 | 95.1 | 83 |
| 2015 | • Willie Snead, N.O. | PHI | 6-141-0 | 69-984-3 | 185.4 | 32 |
| 2021 | Jerry Jeudy, Den. | LVR | 5-140-1 | 38-467-0 | 85.0 | 85 |
—Ian Allan