What do we make of Evan McPherson? He put together an impressive rookie season, especially on longer kicks and especially in the postseason. McPherson converted all 14 of his field goals in Cincinnati’s four playoff games.
McPherson hit 9 field goals from 50-plus yards in the regular season, just one short of the most in NFL history. One year in, he’s looking like a bargain as a fifth-round pick.
But is McPherson’s first-year production an indication that he should be perhaps the first kicker chosen in fantasy drafts this summer? That is, can we safely assume he’s got a good chance of pushing for double-digit field goals from 50-plus yards again next year?
Or did McPherson just happen to benefit from being given the opportunity to attempt a bunch of long-range field goals?
Blair Walsh back in 2012, recall, hit all 10 of his field goals from 50-plus yards as a rookie. How’s his career going nowadays?
In the last 10 years, 73 kickers have attempted at least 7 field goals from 50-plus yards. McPherson (9 of 11) ranks 20th in that group in accuracy – good but not transcendent. That’s one piece of evidence that indicates his production has been more about opportunity rather than individual talent.
Below see the list of the 39 kickers who’ve kicked at least 6 field goals from 50-plus yards. Only nine of those kickers (about 1 in 4) came back the next year to kick at least 5 such kicks (those players are tagged with black dots). Another 7 (bringing us up to 16 of 39) kicked at least 4 field goals from 50-plus.
As a group, these kickers averaged 6.9 field goals from 50-plus in their big seasons, and on 79 percent accuracy. The next year, those same kickers averaged only 3.1 field goals from 50-plus, and on only 62 percent accuracy.
McPherson looks just fine to me. But at point, I’m thinking he’ll be only a top-tier kicker on my board, rather than a player I’ll be dying to select.
| KICKERS WITH 6 FG FROM 50+ | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 50+ FG | Nxt Yr | |
| 2020 | 10-15 | 5-9 | • Brandon McManus |
| 2012 | 10-10 | 2-5 | Blair Walsh |
| 2016 | 10-10 | 5-7 | • Justin Tucker |
| 2021 | 9-11 | ?-? | Evan McPherson |
| 2017 | 8-9 | 4-5 | Matt Bryant |
| 2019 | 8-11 | 1-6 | Joey Slye |
| 2020 | 8-8 | 4-5 | Younghoe Koo |
| 2020 | 8-9 | 2-6 | Jason Sanders |
| 2021 | 8-9 | ?-? | Chris Boswell |
| 2011 | 7-10 | 4-7 | Sebastian Janikowski |
| 2011 | 7-9 | 1-3 | David Akers |
| 2011 | 7-8 | 0-3 | Phil Dawson |
| 2012 | 7-7 | 7-8 | • Phil Dawson |
| 2012 | 7-13 | 1-2 | Greg Zuerlein |
| 2014 | 7-10 | 0-0 | Matt Bryant |
| 2015 | 7-9 | 0-0 | Robbie Gould |
| 2016 | 7-7 | 7-11 | • Matt Prater |
| 2016 | 7-9 | 5-6 | • Adam Vinatieri |
| 2016 | 7-12 | 0-3 | Jason Myers |
| 2017 | 7-9 | 4-7 | Stephen Hauschka |
| 2017 | 7-11 | 3-5 | Matt Prater |
| 2019 | 7-8 | 6-10 | • Matt Prater |
| 2020 | 7-8 | DNP | Stephen Gostkowski |
| 2021 | 7-10 | ?-? | Matt Prater |
| 2021 | 7-10 | ?-? | Graham Gano |
| 2021 | 7-9 | ?-? | Harrison Butker |
| 2021 | 7-9 | ?-? | Greg Joseph |
| 2011 | 6-6 | 3-4 | Robbie Gould |
| 2011 | 6-7 | 2-3 | Rob Bironas |
| 2012 | 6-9 | 7-10 | • Sebastian Janikowski |
| 2012 | 6-9 | 2-3 | Connor Barth |
| 2013 | 6-7 | 4-4 | Justin Tucker |
| 2013 | 6-7 | 3-5 | Dan Bailey |
| 2013 | 6-7 | 3-4 | Matt Prater |
| 2013 | 6-6 | 1-2 | Graham Gano |
| 2014 | 6-9 | 3-3 | Phil Dawson |
| 2014 | 6-8 | 3-5 | Dan Carpenter |
| 2015 | 6-8 | 1-2 | Blair Walsh |
| 2015 | 6-6 | 1-1 | Steven Hauschka |
| 2016 | 6-8 | 8-9 | • Matt Bryant |
| 2017 | 6-7 | 4-6 | Greg Zuerlein |
| 2017 | 6-9 | 0-1 | Kai Forbath |
| 2018 | 6-7 | 4-8 | Brett Maher |
| 2018 | 6-7 | 2-4 | Jason Myers |
| 2020 | 6-10 | 7-10 | • Matt Prater |
| 2021 | 6-7 | ?-? | Daniel Carlson |
| 2021 | 6-6 | ?-? | Justin Tucker |
—Ian Allan