The draft is on the horizon, and one of the lines of thinking is that the Patriots will select a wide receiver early. They need more play-making potential at that position to help Mac Jones continue to develop, the theory goes.
On this front, I’m not confident that New England will be led in receiving by a rookie. Bill Belichick, for all his accolades, has been about the worst guy in the league at drafting wide receivers. He hit on Deion Branch with a second-round pick 20 years ago, but since that time, he’s been throwing up airballs. Since Branch, he’s missed on his last eight wide receiver picks in the first four rounds, most recently N’Keal Harry. That includes second-rounders Bethel Johnson, Chad Jackson and Aaron Dobson and third-rounders Taylor Price and Brandon Tate.
With New England’s track record of receivers, best not to get too excited until you can see something tangible on the field in an exhibition or early-season game. Even if they were to select a receiver in the first round, that probably would be a last-round flyer sort of pick for fantasy purposes. That’s my thinking for now, but let’s see who they have in mind.
I’m not so sure that New England’s holdover receivers are as awful as many seem to believe. Neither Jakobi Meyers nor Kendrick Bourne (pictured) was even drafted at all when they came into the league, but they’ve done some good things. Working primarily short routes, Meyers caught 83 passes last year. And Bourne was sneaky productive, averaging 14.5 yards per catch while also catching 79 percent of the passes thrown his way – he made more downfield plays than Meyers.
Bourne, in fact, averaged a league-high 11.4 yards per pass play last year. In the last 10 years, only five wide receivers with at least 50 targets have averaged more yards per pass play (that is, not only catches but also factoring in incompletions). If a rookie were to come in and outperform Bourne, he’d need to be a pretty talented prospect who also picked things up quickly.
At the same time, “yards per target” hasn’t been a sticky stat. I can remember other lightly-regarded receivers who’ve graded out well using that metric who’ve disappeared pretty quickly – Rishard Matthews, Rashard Higgins and Taylor Gabriel.
In the last 10 years, there have been 22 receivers who’ve averaged at least 10 yards per play (with at least 50 targets), and almost half of those guys (tagged with black dots) the next year didn’t rank any higher than 69th at their position (using PPR scoring).
At this point, I wouldn’t be comfortable selecting Bourne or Meyers under the assumption that they’d likely be starting for my fantasy team most weeks. But they’ve been good enough that a touted rookie probably would project to be mixed in as a third receiver, hopefully as an upgrade over Nelson Agholor.
| RECEIVERS AVERAGING 10 YARDS PER PASS PLAY | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Avg | Next Yr |
| 2018 | Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 70 | 57 | 965 | 10 | 13.8 | 82-1057-8 |
| 2020 | • Will Fuller, Hou. | 75 | 53 | 879 | 8 | 11.7 | 4-26-0 |
| 2017 | JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | 79 | 58 | 917 | 7 | 11.6 | 111-1426-7 |
| 2016 | • Taylor Gabriel, Atl. | 50 | 35 | 579 | 6 | 11.6 | 33-378-1 |
| 2020 | • Rashard Higgins, Cle. | 52 | 37 | 599 | 4 | 11.5 | 24-275-1 |
| 2021 | Kendrick Bourne, N.E. | 70 | 55 | 800 | 5 | 11.4 | ?-?-? |
| 2020 | • Julio Jones, Atl. | 68 | 51 | 771 | 3 | 11.3 | 31-434-1 |
| 2017 | Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 105 | 75 | 1,183 | 7 | 11.3 | 87-1479-14 |
| 2017 | • Ted Ginn, N.O. | 70 | 53 | 787 | 4 | 11.2 | 17-209-2 |
| 2020 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 125 | 88 | 1,400 | 7 | 11.2 | 108-1616-10 |
| 2019 | Chris Godwin, T.B. | 121 | 86 | 1,333 | 9 | 11.0 | 65-840-7 |
| 2014 | • Kenny Stills, N.O. | 85 | 63 | 931 | 3 | 11.0 | 27-440-3 |
| 2015 | Rishard Matthews, Mia. | 61 | 43 | 662 | 4 | 10.9 | 65-945-9 |
| 2018 | • Rashard Higgins, Cle. | 53 | 39 | 572 | 4 | 10.8 | 4-55-1 |
| 2020 | • Corey Davis, Ten. | 92 | 65 | 984 | 5 | 10.7 | 34-492-4 |
| 2016 | Adam Thielen, Min. | 92 | 69 | 967 | 5 | 10.5 | 91-1276-4 |
| 2015 | Doug Baldwin, Sea. | 103 | 78 | 1,069 | 14 | 10.4 | 94-1128-7 |
| 2018 | Cooper Kupp, LAR | 55 | 40 | 566 | 6 | 10.3 | 94-1161-10 |
| 2014 | Randall Cobb, G.B. | 126 | 91 | 1,287 | 12 | 10.2 | 79-829-7 |
| 2019 | • Kenny Stills, Hou. | 55 | 40 | 561 | 4 | 10.2 | 11-144-1 |
| 2021 | Cooper Kupp, LAR | 191 | 145 | 1,947 | 16 | 10.2 | ?-?-? |
| 2015 | • Jermaine Kearse, Sea. | 68 | 49 | 685 | 5 | 10.1 | 41-510-1 |
| 2020 | Chris Godwin, T.B. | 84 | 65 | 840 | 7 | 10.0 | 98-1103-6 |
| 2014 | Emmanuel Sanders, Den. | 141 | 101 | 1,404 | 9 | 10.0 | 76-1135-6 |
—Ian Allan