Veteran Sammy Watkins signed a one-year, $4 million deal with the Packers yesterday. Potentially, this is a huge development -- a former top-5 overall receiving talent signing to play with one of the game's best quarterbacks. But before anyone gets too excited, keep in mind he's Sammy Watkins.
Watkins' career began with considerable promise when he was selected 4th overall by the Bills back in 2014. He went for nearly 1,000 yards as a rookie, then came back a year later and put up 1,047 yards and 9 TDs in just 13 games. His quarterbacks those seasons were EJ Manuel, Kyle Orton and Tyrod Taylor. Looked like he was going to be one of the game's top wideouts for a while.
But since that 2015 high point, it's been pretty much downhill, with injuries the culprit. He missed half the season in 2016, then was traded to the Rams. He was healthy most of that season, and caught 8 TDs, but his numbers were otherwise modest -- 39 catches for 593 yards. He then wound up in Kansas City, poised to play with one of the game's best quarterbacks, but had three mostly unremarkable years. Didn't reach 700 receiving yards in any of them, and missed 6, 2 and 6 games. He moved on to Baltimore last year, again missing 4 games.
Over the last seven years, he's missed 30 games due to injury; more than 4 per year. He didn't put up big numbers in any of his years with Patrick Mahomes, so hard to be confident he'll be able to do with Aaron Rodgers, assuming he'll stay on the field the full season. The contract Green Bay gave him highlights that injury discount; he's making half what Zay Jones will make this season. He turns 29 in June.
If he can stay healthy, there's considerable opportunity. Green Bay traded Davante Adams and lost Marquez Valdes-Scantling in free agency. That's 224 targets and 14 touchdowns from last year's team; somebody's got to absorb that. The Packers otherwise have Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb and Amari Rodgers. If Watkins can't move to the top of that receiving group, it really is over.
But the Packers have two first-round picks in a strong draft for wide receiving talent. It will be a shock if they don't select a wideout with one of those picks, so Watkins will be competing with that player to be the main wideout along with Lazard. And there's no getting around that he just hasn't put up great numbers even when on the field of late.
This is particularly true in terms of scoring, Ian ran the DJ Moore item yesterday, but at least Moore has the excuse of working with lesser quarterbacks. Watkins in his last four years has worked with Mahomes for three seasons, then Lamar Jackson last year. He's caught only 9 TDs in 47 games.
I took a look at all wide receivers who averaged at least 10 games and had at least 150 catches the last four seasons. There are 53 such players. Only three of them caught fewer touchdowns across those seasons than Watkins (would be a nice trivia question; 2 of them, Danny Amendola and Jakobi Meyers, are probably guessable by many readers).
Search tools at pro-football-reference.com were used in compiling this table.
| WIDE RECEIVER SCORING, 2018-2021 (MINIMUM 40 GAMES) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | G | Rec | Yds | TD |
| Davante Adams | 57 | 432 | 5310 | 47 |
| Mike Evans | 61 | 297 | 4722 | 43 |
| Tyreek Hill | 60 | 343 | 4854 | 43 |
| Adam Thielen | 54 | 284 | 3442 | 39 |
| Tyler Lockett | 64 | 312 | 4251 | 36 |
| Cooper Kupp | 56 | 371 | 4648 | 35 |
| Stefon Diggs | 63 | 395 | 4911 | 33 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 57 | 376 | 4716 | 32 |
| D.K. Metcalf | 49 | 216 | 3170 | 29 |
| Amari Cooper | 62 | 314 | 4173 | 28 |
| Chris Godwin | 56 | 308 | 4118 | 28 |
| Calvin Ridley | 49 | 248 | 3342 | 28 |
| Marvin Jones | 55 | 246 | 3097 | 27 |
| Keenan Allen | 62 | 407 | 4525 | 26 |
| Mike Williams | 62 | 216 | 3567 | 26 |
| A.J. Brown | 43 | 185 | 2995 | 24 |
| Tyler Boyd | 61 | 312 | 3743 | 21 |
| Marquise Brown | 46 | 195 | 2361 | 21 |
| Diontae Johnson | 47 | 254 | 2764 | 20 |
| Robby Anderson | 63 | 250 | 3146 | 19 |
| Brandin Cooks | 61 | 293 | 3974 | 19 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 49 | 200 | 2864 | 19 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 49 | 265 | 2938 | 19 |
| Nelson Agholor | 58 | 188 | 2468 | 18 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 49 | 218 | 2943 | 18 |
| Kenny Golladay | 50 | 192 | 3112 | 18 |
| Julio Jones | 50 | 294 | 4276 | 18 |
| Allen Robinson | 57 | 293 | 3561 | 18 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 57 | 240 | 3089 | 18 |
| Robert Woods | 56 | 311 | 3845 | 18 |
| Christian Kirk | 56 | 236 | 2902 | 17 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 64 | 176 | 2312 | 16 |
| Jamison Crowder | 49 | 217 | 2367 | 16 |
| Terry McLaurin | 46 | 222 | 3090 | 16 |
| DeVante Parker | 51 | 199 | 2819 | 16 |
| Corey Davis | 54 | 207 | 2968 | 15 |
| Michael Gallup | 55 | 193 | 2902 | 15 |
| Jarvis Landry | 59 | 288 | 3560 | 15 |
| Zach Pascal | 64 | 150 | 1888 | 15 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 46 | 208 | 2299 | 15 |
| Cole Beasley | 62 | 296 | 3110 | 14 |
| D.J. Moore | 63 | 301 | 4313 | 14 |
| Curtis Samuel | 49 | 176 | 1999 | 14 |
| Randall Cobb | 46 | 159 | 2027 | 13 |
| Courtland Sutton | 50 | 175 | 2658 | 12 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 45 | 198 | 1947 | 11 |
| Sterling Shepard | 45 | 225 | 2470 | 11 |
| Russell Gage | 61 | 193 | 2065 | 9 |
| Adam Humphries | 52 | 177 | 1801 | 9 |
| Sammy Watkins | 47 | 156 | 2007 | 9 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 49 | 157 | 1722 | 7 |
| Danny Amendola | 52 | 191 | 2103 | 5 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 46 | 168 | 1954 | 2 |
On Watkins' behalf. The No. 1 guy on this list played for Sammy's new quarterback. Green Bay will probably draft a wideout early, but it might take some time for that player to earn Rodgers' trust. He's a lot more talented than Lazard, and Cobb has his own injury history. The opportunity is there.
But I suspect he'll be selected long before I'd consider him in drafts. He's underachieved for too long for me to think he'll suddenly recapture his early career form.
--Andy Richardson