It’s looking like Marcus Mariota will be starting for the Falcons. I don’t think they’re going to force a top-10 pick on a lesser quarterback; it would make more sense to select building-block player, then select a quarterback next year, when the top prospects should be more appealing.)

With the Falcons looking like a dumpster-fire team, I think they’re about as likely as anyone to be selecting No. 1 overall next year.

Assuming it’s Mariota starting, expectations should be modest. He hasn’t shown much as a quarterback in recent years. He is, however, a capable runner, and that might allow him to play his way into relevance. He’s averaged over 20 rushing yards per game every year he’s been a starter.

Below see the list of the last 100 quarterbacks who have averaged over 20 rushing yards per game while also starting at least half the season (Mariota himself is on the chart a few times). Of these quarterbacks who’ve been productive runners all but 19 of them also finished with top-20 overall per-game stats. (The guys who did not are tagged with black dots.)

That’s a hit rate of about 4 out of 5 (though with Mariota being a modest quarterback and there not being much around him, he screams out as a candidate to be one of those guys who falls short).

But in a typical fantasy league, there are 12 owners, and all of them are carrying two quarterbacks. In that sense, I think Mariota in 2022 will be viable fantasy guy – probably one of the top 24 at his position.

In the chart below, you’re looking at per-game stats – passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. The points column showed fantasy points per start. And the final column shows where the player ranked that year against other quarterbacks who started at least half the season.

QUARTERBACKS AVERAGING 20 RUSHING YARDS
YearPlayerStPassTDPRunTDRPtsRk
2019Lamar Jackson, Balt.15208.52.4080.4.4730.91
2020Lamar Jackson, Balt.15183.81.7367.0.4725.88
2006Michael Vick, Atl.16154.61.2564.9.1320.06
2021Lamar Jackson, Balt.12240.21.3363.9.1724.76
2013Terrelle Pryor, Oak.9196.2.7861.4.2220.417
2004Michael Vick, Atl.15154.2.9360.1.2018.716
2011Tim Tebow, Den.11150.01.0056.6.4520.312
2018Josh Allen, Buff.11181.8.9155.0.7322.813
2012Robert Griffin III, Was.15213.31.3354.3.4724.25
2014Russell Wilson, Sea.16217.21.2553.1.3823.46
2021Jalen Hurts, Phil.15209.61.0752.3.6724.010
2010Michael Vick, Phil.11258.51.8252.1.8230.51
2020Kyler Murray, Ariz.16248.21.6351.2.6928.23
2017Cam Newton, Car.16206.41.3847.1.3822.94
2012Cam Newton, Car.16241.81.1946.3.5024.54
2011Michael Vick, Phil.13254.11.3845.3.0823.26
2021Josh Allen, Buff.17259.22.1244.9.3528.31
2011Cam Newton, Car.16253.21.3144.1.8827.84
2016Colin Kaepernick, S.F.11203.71.4542.5.1821.513
2006Vince Young, Ten.13158.9.8540.6.5418.89
2015Tyrod Taylor, Buff.14216.81.4340.6.2922.514
2014Colin Kaepernick, S.F.16210.61.1939.9.0619.619
2005Michael Vick, Atl.15160.81.0039.8.4018.67
2015Cam Newton, Car.16239.82.1939.8.6328.51
2020• Cam Newton, N.E.15177.1.5339.5.8720.322
2016Tyrod Taylor, Buff.15201.51.1338.7.4021.118
2021• Justin Fields, Chi.10180.0.7038.6.1016.330
2014Cam Newton, Car.14223.41.2938.5.3622.49
2013Robert Griffin III, Was.13246.41.2337.6.0021.311
2017Russell Wilson, Sea.16248.92.1336.6.1926.01
2013Cam Newton, Car.16211.21.5036.6.3822.57
2018Cam Newton, Car.14242.51.7134.9.2924.57
2015Russell Wilson, Sea.16251.52.1334.6.0624.95
2018Deshaun Watson, Hou.16260.31.6334.4.3124.86
2019Kyler Murray, Ariz.16232.61.2534.0.2521.913
2013Russell Wilson, Sea.16209.81.6333.7.0620.714
2012Michael Vick, Phil.10236.21.2033.2.1020.513
2013• Colin Kaepernick, S.F.16199.81.3132.8.2520.021
2020Russell Wilson, Sea.16263.32.5032.1.1327.26
2015• Colin Kaepernick, S.F.8201.9.7532.0.1317.328
2019Josh Allen, Buff.16193.11.2531.9.5621.614
2008Tyler Thigpen, K.C.11213.11.5531.2.1821.08
2015• Alex Smith, K.C.16217.91.2531.1.1320.024
2012Russell Wilson, Sea.16194.91.6330.6.2520.812
2021Kyler Murray, Ariz.14270.51.7130.2.3625.55
2020• Daniel Jones, NYG14210.2.7930.2.0717.230
2018Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.14230.21.7130.1.2123.210
2017Brett Hundley, G.B.9204.01.0030.0.2218.817
2014• Blake Bortles, Jac.13206.5.6929.9.0016.227
2013Alex Smith, K.C.15220.91.5328.7.0720.515
2018Jameis Winston, T.B.9294.21.7828.7.1125.44
2018• Blake Bortles, Jac.12223.31.0828.3.0818.824
2017• DeShone Kizer, Clev.15192.9.7327.9.3317.421
2017• Tyrod Taylor, Buff.14188.6.9327.8.2117.223
2020Deshaun Watson, Hou.16301.42.0627.8.1927.35
2009Vince Young, Ten.10187.91.0027.6.2017.419
2019Deshaun Watson, Hou.15256.81.7327.5.5325.95
2019Gardner Minshew, Jac.12237.41.5027.5.0021.018
2021Daniel Jones, NYG11220.7.9127.1.1818.817
2012• Jake Locker, Ten.11197.8.9126.5.0916.923
2007• Vince Young, Ten.15169.7.6026.3.2014.722
2020Josh Allen, Buff.16284.02.3126.3.5629.51
2004Daunte Culpepper, Min.16294.82.4425.4.1328.21
2008• Ryan Fitzpatrick, Cin.12158.8.6725.3.1714.128
2006• David Garrard, Jac.10173.51.0025.0.0015.223
2016Cam Newton, Car.15233.91.2723.9.3321.416
2013Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ten.9231.31.2223.8.2220.219
2010Aaron Rodgers, G.B.15261.51.8723.7.2724.52
2017Alex Smith, K.C.15269.51.7323.7.0723.23
2013Andrew Luck, Ind.16238.91.4423.6.2522.19
2018Marcus Mariota, Ten.13186.8.8523.5.1516.031
2018Russell Wilson, Sea.16215.52.1923.5.0022.018
2016Marcus Mariota, Ten.15228.41.7323.3.1321.514
2015• Blaine Gabbert, S.F.8253.91.2523.1.1320.821
2016Aaron Rodgers, G.B.16276.82.5023.1.2527.91
2017Carson Wentz, Phil.13253.52.5423.0.0025.72
2020Carson Wentz, Phil.12218.31.3323.0.4221.914
2013• Geno Smith, NYJ16190.4.7522.9.3817.127
2019Daniel Jones, NYG12250.82.0022.8.1724.28
2010Josh Freeman, T.B.16215.71.5622.8.0019.416
2016Andrew Luck, Ind.15282.72.0722.7.1325.74
2016Blake Bortles, Jac.16244.11.4422.4.2521.99
2021Patrick Mahomes, K.C.17284.62.1822.4.1226.04
2017Dak Prescott, Dall.16207.81.3822.3.3820.412
2013Nick Foles, Phil.10264.52.4022.0.3027.23
2007Tarvaris Jackson, Min.12159.3.7521.7.2515.020
2005Aaron Brooks, N.O.13221.71.0021.6.1518.211
2015Aaron Rodgers, G.B.16238.81.9421.5.0622.79
2019Russell Wilson, Sea.16256.91.9421.4.1924.09
2020Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.9228.31.7821.3.1121.618
2006Donovan McNabb, Phil.10264.71.8021.2.3024.41
2011• Christian Ponder, Min.10175.41.3021.1.0016.124
2015Marcus Mariota, Ten.12234.81.5821.0.2522.216
2017Marcus Mariota, Ten.15215.5.8720.8.3318.319
2010Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buff.13230.81.7720.7.0020.712
2017• Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.12182.8.5820.7.1714.729
2020Patrick Mahomes, K.C.15316.02.5320.5.1329.22
2009David Garrard, Jac.16224.8.9420.2.1918.315
2008David Garrard, Jac.16226.3.9420.1.1317.814
2017Blake Bortles, Jac.16230.41.3120.1.1319.915

—Ian Allan