It’s looking like Marcus Mariota will be starting for the Falcons. I don’t think they’re going to force a top-10 pick on a lesser quarterback; it would make more sense to select building-block player, then select a quarterback next year, when the top prospects should be more appealing.)
With the Falcons looking like a dumpster-fire team, I think they’re about as likely as anyone to be selecting No. 1 overall next year.
Assuming it’s Mariota starting, expectations should be modest. He hasn’t shown much as a quarterback in recent years. He is, however, a capable runner, and that might allow him to play his way into relevance. He’s averaged over 20 rushing yards per game every year he’s been a starter.
Below see the list of the last 100 quarterbacks who have averaged over 20 rushing yards per game while also starting at least half the season (Mariota himself is on the chart a few times). Of these quarterbacks who’ve been productive runners all but 19 of them also finished with top-20 overall per-game stats. (The guys who did not are tagged with black dots.)
That’s a hit rate of about 4 out of 5 (though with Mariota being a modest quarterback and there not being much around him, he screams out as a candidate to be one of those guys who falls short).
But in a typical fantasy league, there are 12 owners, and all of them are carrying two quarterbacks. In that sense, I think Mariota in 2022 will be viable fantasy guy – probably one of the top 24 at his position.
In the chart below, you’re looking at per-game stats – passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. The points column showed fantasy points per start. And the final column shows where the player ranked that year against other quarterbacks who started at least half the season.
QUARTERBACKS AVERAGING 20 RUSHING YARDS | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | St | Pass | TDP | Run | TDR | Pts | Rk |
2019 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 15 | 208.5 | 2.40 | 80.4 | .47 | 30.9 | 1 |
2020 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 15 | 183.8 | 1.73 | 67.0 | .47 | 25.8 | 8 |
2006 | Michael Vick, Atl. | 16 | 154.6 | 1.25 | 64.9 | .13 | 20.0 | 6 |
2021 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 12 | 240.2 | 1.33 | 63.9 | .17 | 24.7 | 6 |
2013 | Terrelle Pryor, Oak. | 9 | 196.2 | .78 | 61.4 | .22 | 20.4 | 17 |
2004 | Michael Vick, Atl. | 15 | 154.2 | .93 | 60.1 | .20 | 18.7 | 16 |
2011 | Tim Tebow, Den. | 11 | 150.0 | 1.00 | 56.6 | .45 | 20.3 | 12 |
2018 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 11 | 181.8 | .91 | 55.0 | .73 | 22.8 | 13 |
2012 | Robert Griffin III, Was. | 15 | 213.3 | 1.33 | 54.3 | .47 | 24.2 | 5 |
2014 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 217.2 | 1.25 | 53.1 | .38 | 23.4 | 6 |
2021 | Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 15 | 209.6 | 1.07 | 52.3 | .67 | 24.0 | 10 |
2010 | Michael Vick, Phil. | 11 | 258.5 | 1.82 | 52.1 | .82 | 30.5 | 1 |
2020 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 16 | 248.2 | 1.63 | 51.2 | .69 | 28.2 | 3 |
2017 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 206.4 | 1.38 | 47.1 | .38 | 22.9 | 4 |
2012 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 241.8 | 1.19 | 46.3 | .50 | 24.5 | 4 |
2011 | Michael Vick, Phil. | 13 | 254.1 | 1.38 | 45.3 | .08 | 23.2 | 6 |
2021 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 17 | 259.2 | 2.12 | 44.9 | .35 | 28.3 | 1 |
2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 253.2 | 1.31 | 44.1 | .88 | 27.8 | 4 |
2016 | Colin Kaepernick, S.F. | 11 | 203.7 | 1.45 | 42.5 | .18 | 21.5 | 13 |
2006 | Vince Young, Ten. | 13 | 158.9 | .85 | 40.6 | .54 | 18.8 | 9 |
2015 | Tyrod Taylor, Buff. | 14 | 216.8 | 1.43 | 40.6 | .29 | 22.5 | 14 |
2014 | Colin Kaepernick, S.F. | 16 | 210.6 | 1.19 | 39.9 | .06 | 19.6 | 19 |
2005 | Michael Vick, Atl. | 15 | 160.8 | 1.00 | 39.8 | .40 | 18.6 | 7 |
2015 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 239.8 | 2.19 | 39.8 | .63 | 28.5 | 1 |
2020 | • Cam Newton, N.E. | 15 | 177.1 | .53 | 39.5 | .87 | 20.3 | 22 |
2016 | Tyrod Taylor, Buff. | 15 | 201.5 | 1.13 | 38.7 | .40 | 21.1 | 18 |
2021 | • Justin Fields, Chi. | 10 | 180.0 | .70 | 38.6 | .10 | 16.3 | 30 |
2014 | Cam Newton, Car. | 14 | 223.4 | 1.29 | 38.5 | .36 | 22.4 | 9 |
2013 | Robert Griffin III, Was. | 13 | 246.4 | 1.23 | 37.6 | .00 | 21.3 | 11 |
2017 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 248.9 | 2.13 | 36.6 | .19 | 26.0 | 1 |
2013 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 211.2 | 1.50 | 36.6 | .38 | 22.5 | 7 |
2018 | Cam Newton, Car. | 14 | 242.5 | 1.71 | 34.9 | .29 | 24.5 | 7 |
2015 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 251.5 | 2.13 | 34.6 | .06 | 24.9 | 5 |
2018 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 16 | 260.3 | 1.63 | 34.4 | .31 | 24.8 | 6 |
2019 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 16 | 232.6 | 1.25 | 34.0 | .25 | 21.9 | 13 |
2013 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 209.8 | 1.63 | 33.7 | .06 | 20.7 | 14 |
2012 | Michael Vick, Phil. | 10 | 236.2 | 1.20 | 33.2 | .10 | 20.5 | 13 |
2013 | • Colin Kaepernick, S.F. | 16 | 199.8 | 1.31 | 32.8 | .25 | 20.0 | 21 |
2020 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 263.3 | 2.50 | 32.1 | .13 | 27.2 | 6 |
2015 | • Colin Kaepernick, S.F. | 8 | 201.9 | .75 | 32.0 | .13 | 17.3 | 28 |
2019 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 16 | 193.1 | 1.25 | 31.9 | .56 | 21.6 | 14 |
2008 | Tyler Thigpen, K.C. | 11 | 213.1 | 1.55 | 31.2 | .18 | 21.0 | 8 |
2015 | • Alex Smith, K.C. | 16 | 217.9 | 1.25 | 31.1 | .13 | 20.0 | 24 |
2012 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 194.9 | 1.63 | 30.6 | .25 | 20.8 | 12 |
2021 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 14 | 270.5 | 1.71 | 30.2 | .36 | 25.5 | 5 |
2020 | • Daniel Jones, NYG | 14 | 210.2 | .79 | 30.2 | .07 | 17.2 | 30 |
2018 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 14 | 230.2 | 1.71 | 30.1 | .21 | 23.2 | 10 |
2017 | Brett Hundley, G.B. | 9 | 204.0 | 1.00 | 30.0 | .22 | 18.8 | 17 |
2014 | • Blake Bortles, Jac. | 13 | 206.5 | .69 | 29.9 | .00 | 16.2 | 27 |
2013 | Alex Smith, K.C. | 15 | 220.9 | 1.53 | 28.7 | .07 | 20.5 | 15 |
2018 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 9 | 294.2 | 1.78 | 28.7 | .11 | 25.4 | 4 |
2018 | • Blake Bortles, Jac. | 12 | 223.3 | 1.08 | 28.3 | .08 | 18.8 | 24 |
2017 | • DeShone Kizer, Clev. | 15 | 192.9 | .73 | 27.9 | .33 | 17.4 | 21 |
2017 | • Tyrod Taylor, Buff. | 14 | 188.6 | .93 | 27.8 | .21 | 17.2 | 23 |
2020 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 16 | 301.4 | 2.06 | 27.8 | .19 | 27.3 | 5 |
2009 | Vince Young, Ten. | 10 | 187.9 | 1.00 | 27.6 | .20 | 17.4 | 19 |
2019 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 15 | 256.8 | 1.73 | 27.5 | .53 | 25.9 | 5 |
2019 | Gardner Minshew, Jac. | 12 | 237.4 | 1.50 | 27.5 | .00 | 21.0 | 18 |
2021 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 11 | 220.7 | .91 | 27.1 | .18 | 18.8 | 17 |
2012 | • Jake Locker, Ten. | 11 | 197.8 | .91 | 26.5 | .09 | 16.9 | 23 |
2007 | • Vince Young, Ten. | 15 | 169.7 | .60 | 26.3 | .20 | 14.7 | 22 |
2020 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 16 | 284.0 | 2.31 | 26.3 | .56 | 29.5 | 1 |
2004 | Daunte Culpepper, Min. | 16 | 294.8 | 2.44 | 25.4 | .13 | 28.2 | 1 |
2008 | • Ryan Fitzpatrick, Cin. | 12 | 158.8 | .67 | 25.3 | .17 | 14.1 | 28 |
2006 | • David Garrard, Jac. | 10 | 173.5 | 1.00 | 25.0 | .00 | 15.2 | 23 |
2016 | Cam Newton, Car. | 15 | 233.9 | 1.27 | 23.9 | .33 | 21.4 | 16 |
2013 | Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ten. | 9 | 231.3 | 1.22 | 23.8 | .22 | 20.2 | 19 |
2010 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 15 | 261.5 | 1.87 | 23.7 | .27 | 24.5 | 2 |
2017 | Alex Smith, K.C. | 15 | 269.5 | 1.73 | 23.7 | .07 | 23.2 | 3 |
2013 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 16 | 238.9 | 1.44 | 23.6 | .25 | 22.1 | 9 |
2018 | • Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 13 | 186.8 | .85 | 23.5 | .15 | 16.0 | 31 |
2018 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 215.5 | 2.19 | 23.5 | .00 | 22.0 | 18 |
2016 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 15 | 228.4 | 1.73 | 23.3 | .13 | 21.5 | 14 |
2015 | • Blaine Gabbert, S.F. | 8 | 253.9 | 1.25 | 23.1 | .13 | 20.8 | 21 |
2016 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 16 | 276.8 | 2.50 | 23.1 | .25 | 27.9 | 1 |
2017 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 13 | 253.5 | 2.54 | 23.0 | .00 | 25.7 | 2 |
2020 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 12 | 218.3 | 1.33 | 23.0 | .42 | 21.9 | 14 |
2013 | • Geno Smith, NYJ | 16 | 190.4 | .75 | 22.9 | .38 | 17.1 | 27 |
2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 12 | 250.8 | 2.00 | 22.8 | .17 | 24.2 | 8 |
2010 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | 16 | 215.7 | 1.56 | 22.8 | .00 | 19.4 | 16 |
2016 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 15 | 282.7 | 2.07 | 22.7 | .13 | 25.7 | 4 |
2016 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 16 | 244.1 | 1.44 | 22.4 | .25 | 21.9 | 9 |
2021 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 17 | 284.6 | 2.18 | 22.4 | .12 | 26.0 | 4 |
2017 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 16 | 207.8 | 1.38 | 22.3 | .38 | 20.4 | 12 |
2013 | Nick Foles, Phil. | 10 | 264.5 | 2.40 | 22.0 | .30 | 27.2 | 3 |
2007 | Tarvaris Jackson, Min. | 12 | 159.3 | .75 | 21.7 | .25 | 15.0 | 20 |
2005 | Aaron Brooks, N.O. | 13 | 221.7 | 1.00 | 21.6 | .15 | 18.2 | 11 |
2015 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 16 | 238.8 | 1.94 | 21.5 | .06 | 22.7 | 9 |
2019 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 256.9 | 1.94 | 21.4 | .19 | 24.0 | 9 |
2020 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 9 | 228.3 | 1.78 | 21.3 | .11 | 21.6 | 18 |
2006 | Donovan McNabb, Phil. | 10 | 264.7 | 1.80 | 21.2 | .30 | 24.4 | 1 |
2011 | • Christian Ponder, Min. | 10 | 175.4 | 1.30 | 21.1 | .00 | 16.1 | 24 |
2015 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 12 | 234.8 | 1.58 | 21.0 | .25 | 22.2 | 16 |
2017 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 15 | 215.5 | .87 | 20.8 | .33 | 18.3 | 19 |
2010 | Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buff. | 13 | 230.8 | 1.77 | 20.7 | .00 | 20.7 | 12 |
2017 | • Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 12 | 182.8 | .58 | 20.7 | .17 | 14.7 | 29 |
2020 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 15 | 316.0 | 2.53 | 20.5 | .13 | 29.2 | 2 |
2009 | David Garrard, Jac. | 16 | 224.8 | .94 | 20.2 | .19 | 18.3 | 15 |
2008 | David Garrard, Jac. | 16 | 226.3 | .94 | 20.1 | .13 | 17.8 | 14 |
2017 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 16 | 230.4 | 1.31 | 20.1 | .13 | 19.9 | 15 |
—Ian Allan