It’s a weird year for wide receivers. There’s plenty of talent, with perhaps a record number being selected in the first three rounds, but there’s no clear No. 1 prospect. In my eyes, there’s no receiver who looks like a lock to be one of the first two selected at the position.
Jameson Williams (pictured) might have been that guy, but he tore his ACL in the National Championship game. Like most of these other recent Alabama receivers, he’s on the slight side.
There are the two Ohio State receivers, but there’s no argreement on whether Garrett Wilson or Chris Olave should be selected first.
There are the two big receivers, Drake London and Treylon Burks. Sometimes with the larger wide receiver, they run into issues with separation as they transition from college to pros, with it being harder to win contested balls against bigger, faster defensive backs. London isn’t going to run a 40 (which I take to mean he’s concerned the number might scare some teams away).
Maybe you put Jahan Dotson of Penn State into the top group. With there being a ton of other prospects, probably some teams see qualities in some of them that they like more than those first five.
But bottom line, there’s no Julio Jones or A.J. Green type prospect, where everyone can see he’s going to be a great pro and needs to be selected with a top-5 overall pick.
So I would think, when we look back on this class in five years, that the best receiver won’t necessarily be one of the first chosen. Maybe not even one of the first five chosen.
Consider the chart below. It shows the 53 wide receivers chosen in the first or second round since 2016. For each guy, I pulled out the best season of his first four years – his best season when he was on his rookie contract. I tossed out the other seasons, then ordered the guys 1 thru 53, best to worst, using PPR scoring.
Of the top 20 guys on the list, 13 were originally selected in the second round. Only seven (in bold) were originally chosen in the first round.
There have been some awesome first-round picks, with the two LSU guys from the last two years (Justin Jefferson, JaMarr Chase) leading the way. But there have been a couple of second-round receivers – Michael Thomas, Deebo Samuel – who have put up even better numbers than either of those guys.
This isn’t an apples-to-apples comparison; there have been 31 selected in the second round, versus only 22 in the first. But you would have thought the first-round players would be more well represented at the top of the list.
If form holds, there will be some more lightly regarded wide receivers selected outside the top 40 that will outperform some (maybe all) of the more heralded guy chosen in the top 20.
| FIRST- vs. SECOND-ROUND RECEIVERS (last 6 yrs) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Yr | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2019 | Michael Thomas, N.O. | 4 | 149 | 1,725 | 9 | 374.6 | 1 |
| 2021 | Deebo Samuel, S.F. | 3 | 77 | 1,405 | 14 | 343.2 | 3 |
| 2021 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 2 | 108 | 1,616 | 10 | 332.8 | 4 |
| 2021 | JaMarr Chase, Cin. | 1 | 81 | 1,455 | 13 | 306.6 | 5 |
| 2018 | JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | 2 | 111 | 1,426 | 7 | 298.9 | 8 |
| 2020 | Calvin Ridley, Atl. | 3 | 90 | 1,374 | 9 | 283.5 | 5 |
| 2020 | DK Metcalf, Sea. | 2 | 83 | 1,303 | 10 | 273.3 | 7 |
| 2020 | A.J. Brown, Ten. | 2 | 70 | 1,075 | 12 | 249.5 | 11 |
| 2021 | Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 1 | 104 | 1,015 | 7 | 247.8 | 12 |
| 2021 | DJ Moore, Car. | 4 | 93 | 1,157 | 4 | 239.5 | 17 |
| 2021 | Michael Pittman, Ind. | 2 | 88 | 1,082 | 6 | 238.6 | 18 |
| 2021 | CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 2 | 79 | 1,102 | 6 | 232.8 | 19 |
| 2021 | Marquise Brown, Balt. | 3 | 91 | 1,008 | 6 | 228.3 | 21 |
| 2019 | Tyler Boyd, Cin. | 4 | 90 | 1,046 | 5 | 226.9 | 17 |
| 2019 | DJ Chark, Jac. | 2 | 73 | 1,008 | 8 | 225.8 | 18 |
| 2019 | Courtland Sutton, Den. | 2 | 72 | 1,112 | 6 | 222.8 | 19 |
| 2021 | Tee Higgins, Cin. | 2 | 74 | 1,091 | 6 | 221.1 | 23 |
| 2020 | Chase Claypool, Pitt. | 1 | 62 | 873 | 11 | 216.9 | 23 |
| 2020 | Curtis Samuel, Car. | 4 | 77 | 851 | 5 | 212.1 | 24 |
| 2021 | Christian Kirk, Ariz. | 4 | 77 | 982 | 5 | 208.0 | 26 |
| 2020 | Corey Davis, Ten. | 4 | 65 | 984 | 5 | 193.4 | 29 |
| 2021 | DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 1 | 64 | 916 | 5 | 187.6 | 30 |
| 2020 | Brandon Aiyuk, S.F. | 1 | 60 | 748 | 7 | 184.5 | 35 |
| 2016 | Sterling Shepard, NYG | 1 | 65 | 683 | 8 | 184.4 | 36 |
| 2018 | Mike Williams, LAC | 2 | 43 | 664 | 11 | 180.2 | 33 |
| 2021 | Van Jefferson, LAR | 2 | 50 | 802 | 6 | 168.2 | 36 |
| 2018 | Zay Jones, Buff. | 2 | 56 | 652 | 7 | 165.2 | 35 |
| 2020 | Jerry Jeudy, Den. | 1 | 52 | 856 | 3 | 157.6 | 45 |
| 2020 | Laviska Shenault, Jac. | 1 | 58 | 600 | 5 | 157.1 | 46 |
| 2021 | Mecole Hardman, K.C. | 3 | 59 | 693 | 2 | 144.9 | 47 |
| 2021 | Elijah Moore, NYJ | 1 | 43 | 538 | 6 | 138.2 | 50 |
| 2019 | James Washington, Pitt. | 2 | 44 | 735 | 3 | 135.5 | 52 |
| 2019 | Will Fuller, Hou. | 4 | 49 | 670 | 3 | 134.0 | 54 |
| 2019 | Anthony Miller, Chi. | 2 | 52 | 656 | 2 | 129.5 | 56 |
| 2017 | Josh Doctson, Was. | 2 | 35 | 502 | 6 | 119.8 | 57 |
| 2021 | Rondale Moore, Ariz. | 1 | 54 | 435 | 1 | 111.1 | 65 |
| 2018 | Dante Pettis, S.F. | 1 | 27 | 467 | 5 | 103.5 | 71 |
| 2021 | Rashod Bateman, Balt. | 1 | 46 | 515 | 1 | 103.5 | 70 |
| 2019 | John Ross, Cin. | 3 | 28 | 506 | 3 | 97.0 | 74 |
| 2016 | Corey Coleman, Cle. | 1 | 33 | 413 | 3 | 93.3 | 82 |
| 2020 | KJ Hamler, Den. | 1 | 30 | 381 | 3 | 90.1 | 88 |
| 2020 | Henry Ruggs, L.V. | 1 | 26 | 452 | 2 | 88.1 | 89 |
| 2020 | Jalen Reagor, Phil. | 1 | 31 | 396 | 2 | 87.2 | 91 |
| 2021 | Kadarius Toney, NYG | 1 | 39 | 420 | 0 | 82.6 | 89 |
| 2020 | N'Keal Harry, N.E. | 2 | 33 | 309 | 2 | 75.9 | 98 |
| 2018 | Laquon Treadwell, Min. | 3 | 35 | 302 | 1 | 71.2 | 94 |
| 2020 | Denzel Mims, NYJ | 1 | 23 | 357 | 0 | 60.7 | 107 |
| 2020 | Andy Isabella, Ariz. | 2 | 21 | 224 | 2 | 54.8 | 114 |
| 2019 | Parris Campbell, Ind. | 1 | 18 | 127 | 1 | 40.1 | 121 |
| 2019 | J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Phil. | 1 | 10 | 169 | 1 | 32.9 | 136 |
| 2021 | Terrace Marshall, Car. | 1 | 17 | 138 | 0 | 32.8 | 139 |
| 2021 | Dee Eskridge, Sea. | 1 | 10 | 64 | 1 | 28.3 | 146 |
| 2021 | Tutu Atwell, LAR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
—Ian Allan