Let's call it the Christian Kirk effect. The monster contract that Jacksonville gave the former Arizona wideout in free agency seems to be a factor in every other wideout of some ability angling for more money. Things look a little different with Deebo Samuel, which might benefit Brandon Aiyuk.
Whereas the talk with say Terry McLaurin centers on him getting a new contract, with Deebo it's quickly turned into him reportedly wanting out of San Francisco, period. The 49ers are apparently willing to talk a new contract with their All-Pro wideout/running back, but Samuel himself, per Adam Schefer, has "put a halt to everything." His brother (Samuel's, not Schefter's) said Samuel wants out, but then backed off that; said he was just messing around and has no idea.
So really, all we have to go on is Schefter's report that Samuel doesn't want to talk contract with San Francisco, raising the speculation that he wants to be traded. This could all still work out just fine -- the 49ers surely would prefer to bring their star wideout back -- but it's in the realm of possibilities that he gets dealt. If so, it would translate into a huge jump in value for Brandon Aiyuk.
Aiyuk is a former first-round pick, and is the No. 2 (in an offense that also has a franchise receiver at tight end in George Kittle) at present. But he'd be the No. 1 wideout if Samuel were shipped off, and we've got a sense of how that might look from the past couple of years.
Samuel has missed all or most of eight games the past two seasons. Aiyuk in those games has caught 45 passes for 519 yards and 3 TDs, with an additional 39 yards on runs. He put up at least 70 receiving yards in five of those contests. No one need be a math whiz to foresee a 90-catch, 1,000-yard season as a reasonable starting point if Samuel were to find his way onto another roster between now and the start of next season.
| AIYUK WITHOUT SAMUEL, LAST TWO YEARS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Opp | Tgt | No | Rec | Run | TD |
| 2020 | at NYJ | 3 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020 | at NYG | 8 | 5 | 70 | 31 | 0 |
| 2020 | at Sea. | 10 | 8 | 91 | 0 | 1 |
| 2020 | at N.O. | 14 | 7 | 75 | -8 | 1 |
| 2020 | Was. | 16 | 10 | 119 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020 | at Dal. | 13 | 9 | 73 | 0 | 1 |
| 2020 | at Ari. | 2 | 1 | 15 | 16 | 0 |
| 2021 | at Sea. | 6 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 72 | 45 | 519 | 39 | 3 | |
Aiyuk isn't the same player and there's no telling if he'd be used as a running back in San Francisco's offense, although it's possible. There's also the quarterback question, with San Francisco potentially making a quarterback switch from Jimmy Garoppolo to Trey Lance. Not necessarily a plus for the team's receivers.
What is clear is that Aiyuk would be in line for a big uptick in value if the relationship between the team and Samuel becomes unworkable. Looks a little more appealing in early best-ball drafts, on that outside possibility.
--Andy Richardson