Based on most draft preview articles, there are two running backs widely viewed as the top selections at the position in next week's draft. Iowa State's Breece Hall is the favorite -- likeliest to be a first-rounder, if there is one -- but Michigan State's Kenneth Walker also has his fans.
Not that these will necessarily be the first two backs drafted; NFL teams might view them differently, or like someone a little more than the draftniks. But if you're participating in a rookie draft right now (as some are, yes, even before the NFL Draft) Hall and Walker are the first guys being selected.
Personally, I like Hall more at this point, which I believe is the consensus. He reminds me of Nick Chubb, while a recurring thought watching Walker run was Kenyan Drake, which I realize is not overly flattering. (And probably not fair; Drake has more of a wide receiver build, while Walker measured 5-foot-9 and 211 pounds at the combine.) We'll see; particularly with running backs, landing spot seems extra important. Had Chubb landed in Arizona or Miami, would he have emerged as one of the league's best running backs? Hard to say.
In any case, when I'm looking at rookie running backs I want guys who I think will be, or at least can be, factors as receivers. We're all trying to get the next LaDainian Tomlinson; Derrick Henry is great too, but crushing, 2,000-yard runners are harder to come by than someone who maybe won't dominate as a runner but can pick up a lot of cheap receiving production and be an elite fantasy choice. That has to give one pause when considering Walker.
While Hall caught 36 passes for 302 yards and 3 TDs last year, and 82 balls in three college seasons, Walker wasn't used in the passing game at all. He caught only 13 passes last year, and 19 total in three seasons. If he can catch or pass protect, we haven't seen that much of it.
I took a look at all the other productive college runners (using 1,300 rushing yards as the threshold) from the last 10 years who weren't used in the passing game in college. Have any of those guys emerged as quality receivers in the NFL? The answer is yes.
Table below shows all 1,300-yard college rushers from the last decade who caught 15 or fewer passes in those seasons. There were a few quarterbacks who showed up in the table initially and I believe I deleted most of them; apologies if any snuck in. Search tools at college-football-reference.com were used in compiling this table.
Several players show up who haven't been good or haven't been used much in the passing game in the NFL. Ronald Jones, Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, AJ Dillon, Jordan Howard, Matt Breida, Benny Snell.
But there are plenty of players who didn't catch many passes in those big rushing seasons in college but have done just fine in the passing game in the NFL. Jonathan Taylor shows up on the list twice, and he's caught 76 passes his first two seasons. Melvin Gordon has a pair of 50-catch seasons. Kareem Hunt stepped right into the league with a 53-catch season in Kansas City, and Devin Singletary has been fine catching passes in Buffalo.
Bottom line, I don't know if Walker will go to a team that uses him in the passing game. But the fact that he hasn't been used that way doesn't mean he can't do it. Often it's just the offense they're in.
COLLEGE RBS, 1300 RUSHING YARDS, <15 RECEPTIONS, 2012-2021 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Year | School | Att | Yds | TD | Rec | Yds |
Samaje Perine | 2014 | Oklahoma | 263 | 1713 | 21 | 15 | 108 |
Tyler Gaffney | 2013 | Stanford | 330 | 1709 | 21 | 15 | 86 |
LeVante Bellamy | 2019 | Western Michigan | 266 | 1472 | 23 | 15 | 55 |
Rawleigh Williams | 2016 | Arkansas | 245 | 1360 | 12 | 15 | 220 |
Samaje Perine | 2015 | Oklahoma | 226 | 1349 | 16 | 15 | 107 |
George Winn | 2012 | Cincinnati | 243 | 1334 | 13 | 15 | 128 |
Jarvion Franklin | 2014 | Western Michigan | 306 | 1551 | 24 | 14 | 163 |
Ronald Jones | 2017 | Southern California | 261 | 1550 | 19 | 14 | 187 |
Royce Freeman | 2017 | Oregon | 244 | 1475 | 16 | 14 | 164 |
Brenden Knox | 2019 | Marshall | 270 | 1387 | 11 | 14 | 129 |
Mike Warren | 2015 | Iowa State | 227 | 1339 | 5 | 14 | 70 |
Jaret Patterson | 2019 | Buffalo | 312 | 1799 | 19 | 13 | 209 |
AJ Dillon | 2019 | Boston College | 318 | 1685 | 14 | 13 | 195 |
Kenneth Walker | 2021 | Michigan State | 263 | 1636 | 18 | 13 | 89 |
Cameron Artis-Payne | 2014 | Auburn | 303 | 1608 | 13 | 13 | 147 |
Abram Smith | 2021 | Baylor | 257 | 1601 | 12 | 13 | 75 |
Alex Collins | 2015 | Arkansas | 271 | 1577 | 20 | 13 | 95 |
Elijah Hood | 2015 | North Carolina | 218 | 1463 | 17 | 13 | 71 |
Josh Adams | 2017 | Notre Dame | 206 | 1430 | 9 | 13 | 101 |
Christopher Rodriguez | 2021 | Kentucky | 225 | 1378 | 10 | 13 | 61 |
Tre Mason | 2013 | Auburn | 317 | 1816 | 23 | 12 | 163 |
Travis Etienne | 2018 | Clemson | 204 | 1658 | 24 | 12 | 78 |
Corey Clement | 2016 | Wisconsin | 314 | 1375 | 15 | 12 | 132 |
Nick Wilson | 2014 | Arizona | 236 | 1375 | 16 | 12 | 90 |
Derrick Henry | 2015 | Alabama | 395 | 2219 | 28 | 11 | 91 |
Jeremy Langford | 2014 | Michigan State | 276 | 1522 | 22 | 11 | 62 |
Montee Ball | 2012 | Wisconsin | 356 | 1830 | 22 | 10 | 72 |
Kasey Carrier | 2012 | New Mexico | 255 | 1469 | 15 | 10 | 75 |
Jahwan Edwards | 2012 | Ball State | 232 | 1410 | 14 | 10 | 51 |
Benny Snell | 2017 | Kentucky | 262 | 1333 | 19 | 10 | 72 |
Kareem Hunt | 2014 | Toledo | 205 | 1631 | 16 | 9 | 39 |
Jordan Howard | 2014 | Alabama-Birmingham | 306 | 1587 | 13 | 9 | 72 |
D'Angelo Brewer | 2017 | Tulsa | 288 | 1517 | 9 | 9 | 88 |
Adam Muema | 2012 | San Diego State | 237 | 1458 | 16 | 9 | 147 |
Joe Williams | 2016 | Utah | 210 | 1407 | 10 | 9 | 107 |
Derrius Guice | 2016 | Louisiana State | 183 | 1387 | 15 | 9 | 106 |
Shock Linwood | 2015 | Baylor | 196 | 1329 | 10 | 9 | 71 |
Jonathan Taylor | 2018 | Wisconsin | 307 | 2194 | 16 | 8 | 60 |
Jonathan Taylor | 2017 | Wisconsin | 299 | 1977 | 13 | 8 | 95 |
Brian Hill | 2016 | Wyoming | 349 | 1860 | 22 | 8 | 67 |
Kapri Bibbs | 2013 | Colorado State | 281 | 1741 | 31 | 8 | 59 |
Matt Breida | 2014 | Georgia Southern | 171 | 1485 | 17 | 8 | 97 |
B.J. Baylor | 2021 | Oregon State | 227 | 1337 | 13 | 8 | 75 |
Lexington Thomas | 2017 | Nevada-Las Vegas | 211 | 1336 | 17 | 8 | 143 |
D'Onta Foreman | 2016 | Texas | 323 | 2028 | 15 | 7 | 75 |
Jamaal Williams | 2016 | Brigham Young | 234 | 1375 | 12 | 7 | 80 |
James Butler | 2015 | Nevada | 208 | 1345 | 10 | 7 | 44 |
Nico Evans | 2018 | Wyoming | 204 | 1325 | 8 | 7 | 66 |
Bryce Love | 2017 | Stanford | 263 | 2118 | 19 | 6 | 33 |
Devon Johnson | 2014 | Marshall | 206 | 1767 | 17 | 6 | 121 |
Devin Singletary | 2018 | Florida Atlantic | 261 | 1348 | 22 | 6 | 36 |
Myles Gaskin | 2015 | Washington | 227 | 1302 | 14 | 6 | 19 |
James Conner | 2014 | Pittsburgh | 298 | 1765 | 26 | 5 | 70 |
D'Angelo Brewer | 2016 | Tulsa | 264 | 1435 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
Jalin Moore | 2016 | Appalachian State | 237 | 1402 | 10 | 5 | 32 |
Javian Hawkins | 2019 | Louisville | 264 | 1525 | 9 | 4 | 58 |
Nick Chubb | 2017 | Georgia | 223 | 1345 | 15 | 4 | 30 |
Spencer Brown | 2017 | Alabama-Birmingham | 250 | 1329 | 10 | 4 | 42 |
James Flanders | 2016 | Tulsa | 258 | 1629 | 18 | 3 | 17 |
Matt Breida | 2015 | Georgia Southern | 203 | 1609 | 17 | 3 | 6 |
DeWayne McBride | 2021 | Alabama-Birmingham | 204 | 1371 | 13 | 3 | 19 |
Melvin Gordon | 2013 | Wisconsin | 206 | 1609 | 12 | 1 | 10 |
Keenan Reynolds | 2015 | Navy | 265 | 1373 | 24 | 1 | 47 |
James Gilbert | 2016 | Ball State | 251 | 1332 | 12 | 1 | 18 |
Andre Williams | 2013 | Boston College | 355 | 2177 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
Malcolm Perry | 2019 | Navy | 295 | 2017 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
Ahmad Bradshaw | 2017 | Army | 242 | 1746 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
AJ Dillon | 2017 | Boston College | 300 | 1589 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Brad Roberts | 2021 | Air Force | 299 | 1356 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Keenan Reynolds | 2013 | Navy | 300 | 1346 | 31 | 0 | 0 |
--Andy Richardson