It's an exciting draft class of wide receivers, with the Ohio State duo of Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave (pictured), Alabama's Jameson Williams and others looking like Day 1 picks. Considering how guys like Justin Jefferson and JaMarr Chase have performed right away the last two years, it's even more exciting. But the draft is not an exact science.
While there have been a lot of success stories, NFL teams still get it wrong about as often as they get it right. For every Jefferson selected in the first round, there's a Jalen Reagor. For every Amari Cooper, there's a Breshad Perriman. Kind of a 50-50 proposition.
In the last 10 years, there have been 40 wide receivers selected in the first round. To this point, just 15 of them have had a top-20 fantasy season (PPR). An equal number, 15, have never finished in the top 40. Draft a wide receiver in the first round, and you're still about as likely to land the next N'Keal Harry or Kevin White as the next star.
First-round wideouts from the last 10 years, with their best fantasy season listed, are shown below. (Cordarrelle Patterson is a special case; he just finished in the top 10, but as primarily a running back rather than wide receiver.)
1ST-ROUND WIDE RECEIVERS, 2012-2021 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draft | Pk | Best | Player | No | Yards | TD | FF | Rk |
2013 | 27 | 2018 | DeAndre Hopkins | 115 | 1572 | 11 | 337.5 | 1 |
2014 | 7 | 2016 | Mike Evans | 96 | 1321 | 12 | 304.1 | 3 |
2020 | 22 | 2021 | Justin Jefferson | 108 | 1616 | 10 | 332.8 | 4 |
2014 | 12 | 2016 | Odell Beckham | 101 | 1367 | 10 | 298.6 | 4 |
2018 | 26 | 2020 | Calvin Ridley | 90 | 1374 | 9 | 283.5 | 5 |
2021 | 5 | 2021 | JaMarr Chase | 81 | 1455 | 13 | 306.6 | 5 |
2015 | 4 | 2019 | Amari Cooper | 79 | 1189 | 8 | 246.5 | 10 |
2014 | 20 | 2016 | Brandin Cooks | 78 | 1173 | 8 | 246.3 | 10 |
2013 | 29 | 2021 | Cordarrelle Patterson | 52 | 548 | 5 | 234.6 | 10 |
2015 | 14 | 2019 | DeVante Parker | 72 | 1202 | 9 | 246.2 | 11 |
2021 | 6 | 2021 | Jaylen Waddle | 104 | 1015 | 6 | 247.8 | 12 |
2018 | 24 | 2019 | DJ Moore | 87 | 1175 | 4 | 232.5 | 16 |
2014 | 28 | 2014 | Kelvin Benjamin | 73 | 1008 | 9 | 227.8 | 16 |
2020 | 17 | 2021 | CeeDee Lamb | 79 | 1102 | 6 | 232.8 | 19 |
2012 | 20 | 2013 | Kendall Wright | 94 | 1079 | 2 | 213.9 | 20 |
2014 | 4 | 2015 | Sammy Watkins | 60 | 1047 | 9 | 218.8 | 20 |
2019 | 25 | 2021 | Marquise Brown | 91 | 1008 | 6 | 228.3 | 21 |
2015 | 20 | 2017 | Nelson Agholor | 62 | 768 | 8 | 193.5 | 23 |
2013 | 8 | 2015 | Tavon Austin | 52 | 473 | 5 | 202.7 | 27 |
2017 | 5 | 2020 | Corey Davis | 65 | 984 | 5 | 193.4 | 29 |
2012 | 5 | 2012 | Justin Blackmon | 64 | 865 | 5 | 184.8 | 29 |
2021 | 10 | 2021 | DeVonta Smith | 64 | 916 | 5 | 187.6 | 30 |
2016 | 21 | 2020 | Will Fuller | 53 | 879 | 8 | 188.9 | 32 |
2017 | 7 | 2018 | Mike Williams | 43 | 664 | 10 | 180.2 | 33 |
2020 | 25 | 2021 | Brandon Aiyuk | 56 | 826 | 5 | 172.3 | 35 |
2020 | 15 | 2020 | Jerry Jeudy | 52 | 856 | 3 | 157.6 | 45 |
2015 | 26 | 2019 | Breshad Perriman | 36 | 645 | 6 | 138.1 | 51 |
2016 | 22 | 2017 | Josh Doctson | 35 | 502 | 6 | 119.8 | 57 |
2012 | 13 | 2012 | Michael Floyd | 45 | 562 | 2 | 113.2 | 65 |
2021 | 27 | 2021 | Rashod Bateman | 46 | 515 | 1 | 103.5 | 70 |
2015 | 29 | 2019 | Phillip Dorsett | 29 | 397 | 5 | 100.8 | 71 |
2017 | 9 | 2019 | John Ross | 28 | 506 | 3 | 97.0 | 74 |
2016 | 15 | 2016 | Corey Coleman | 33 | 413 | 3 | 93.3 | 82 |
2020 | 12 | 2021 | Henry Ruggs | 24 | 469 | 2 | 84.5 | 86 |
2021 | 20 | 2021 | Kadarius Toney | 39 | 420 | 0 | 82.6 | 89 |
2016 | 23 | 2021 | Laquon Treadwell | 33 | 434 | 1 | 82.4 | 90 |
2020 | 21 | 2020 | Jalen Reagor | 31 | 396 | 1 | 87.2 | 91 |
2019 | 32 | 2020 | N'Keal Harry | 33 | 309 | 2 | 75.9 | 98 |
2015 | 7 | 2016 | Kevin White | 19 | 187 | 0 | 38.6 | 122 |
2012 | 30 | 2013 | A.J. Jenkins | 8 | 130 | 0 | 21.6 | 134 |
With a handful of these players -- Hollywood Brown, Jerry Jeudy, Brandon Aiyuk, Rashod Bateman -- that top 20 season might yet be coming, perhaps even this season. This same table two years from now might have more hits than misses. But there will doubtless be some guys selected Thursday night who wind up in the John Ross, Corey Coleman territory, as well.
--Andy Richardson