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Factoid

First-round wideouts

Draft still features more misses

It's an exciting draft class of wide receivers, with the Ohio State duo of Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave (pictured), Alabama's Jameson Williams and others looking like Day 1 picks. Considering how guys like Justin Jefferson and JaMarr Chase have performed right away the last two years, it's even more exciting. But the draft is not an exact science.

While there have been a lot of success stories, NFL teams still get it wrong about as often as they get it right. For every Jefferson selected in the first round, there's a Jalen Reagor. For every Amari Cooper, there's a Breshad Perriman. Kind of a 50-50 proposition.

In the last 10 years, there have been 40 wide receivers selected in the first round. To this point, just 15 of them have had a top-20 fantasy season (PPR). An equal number, 15, have never finished in the top 40. Draft a wide receiver in the first round, and you're still about as likely to land the next N'Keal Harry or Kevin White as the next star.

First-round wideouts from the last 10 years, with their best fantasy season listed, are shown below. (Cordarrelle Patterson is a special case; he just finished in the top 10, but as primarily a running back rather than wide receiver.)

1ST-ROUND WIDE RECEIVERS, 2012-2021
DraftPkBestPlayerNoYardsTDFFRk
2013272018DeAndre Hopkins115157211337.51
201472016Mike Evans96132112304.13
2020222021Justin Jefferson108161610332.84
2014122016Odell Beckham101136710298.64
2018262020Calvin Ridley9013749283.55
202152021JaMarr Chase81145513306.65
201542019Amari Cooper7911898246.510
2014202016Brandin Cooks7811738246.310
2013292021Cordarrelle Patterson525485234.610
2015142019DeVante Parker7212029246.211
202162021Jaylen Waddle10410156247.812
2018242019DJ Moore8711754232.516
2014282014Kelvin Benjamin7310089227.816
2020172021CeeDee Lamb7911026232.819
2012202013Kendall Wright9410792213.920
201442015Sammy Watkins6010479218.820
2019252021Marquise Brown9110086228.321
2015202017Nelson Agholor627688193.523
201382015Tavon Austin524735202.727
201752020Corey Davis659845193.429
201252012Justin Blackmon648655184.829
2021102021DeVonta Smith649165187.630
2016212020Will Fuller538798188.932
201772018Mike Williams4366410180.233
2020252021Brandon Aiyuk568265172.335
2020152020Jerry Jeudy528563157.645
2015262019Breshad Perriman366456138.151
2016222017Josh Doctson355026119.857
2012132012Michael Floyd455622113.265
2021272021Rashod Bateman465151103.570
2015292019Phillip Dorsett293975100.871
201792019John Ross28506397.074
2016152016Corey Coleman33413393.382
2020122021Henry Ruggs24469284.586
2021202021Kadarius Toney39420082.689
2016232021Laquon Treadwell33434182.490
2020212020Jalen Reagor31396187.291
2019322020N'Keal Harry33309275.998
201572016Kevin White19187038.6122
2012302013A.J. Jenkins8130021.6134

With a handful of these players -- Hollywood Brown, Jerry Jeudy, Brandon Aiyuk, Rashod Bateman -- that top 20 season might yet be coming, perhaps even this season. This same table two years from now might have more hits than misses. But there will doubtless be some guys selected Thursday night who wind up in the John Ross, Corey Coleman territory, as well.

--Andy Richardson

Fantasy Index