I see that Russell Wilson has been working out with Denver’s wide receivers. I will be interested if he can help them maximize their potential.
The Broncos have some capable pass catchers. Courtland Sutton is big, and with the ability to get downfield. Before he tore his ACL in 2020, he was looking like another Demaryius Thomas.
They selected Jerry Jeudy in the middle of the first round two years ago. They haven’t been able to get him going much, but he’s talented. In that same draft, they selected KJ Hamler in the second round, and he was looking like he was going to be their best deep threat last year before tearing his ACL; I remember Hamler catching a long touchdown at Minnesota in the preseason.
They’ve also got Tim Patrick, who’s not as heralded but is built like Sutton and has had some success. Patrick wasn’t even drafted back in 2017, but he’s remarkably led that team in touchdown catches in each of the last two years.
With Wilson, there’s a lot more potential to get those guys the ball, particularly on downfield routes. Wilson is a lot better than anyone the Broncos have had at quarterback in recent years.
With Wilson, it’s his ability to throw deep passes that I think is his best quality. He’s better than most (maybe all) quarterbacks at accurately dropping in those balls. He also attempts more of those throws than other quarterbacks.
Below see a subset of numbers from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats section. It shows all quarterbacks who completed 100 passes last year, and the average depth of their pass attempts. It gives an indication of what quarterbacks are trying to do with the ball.
If a player catches the ball at the line of scrimmage, that’s marked down as a zero (even if the quarterback had to throw it 10-15 yards to get it to that player). For a running back standing in the flat, 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage, that throw would be marked down as a -5. And a player 30 yards downfield would be marked as a 30 (even if the quarterback had to throw it 40 yards, and even if the player then ran an extra 20 yards after catching the pass).
The “Intended Air Yard” data shows that Wilson last year was tending to throw more deep balls than any other quarterback last year. His attempts averaged 9.9 yards – over a yard more than all but three other quarterbacks.
When the Broncos take the field this year, I think there will be plenty of deep attempts going to these wide receivers. Wilson is less inclined to settle for check-down throws to backs and tight ends.
| INTENDED AIR YARDS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Team | Quarterback | Yds / Att |
| Sea. | Russell Wilson | 9.89 |
| Chi. | Justin Fields | 9.78 |
| Balt. | Lamar Jackson | 9.27 |
| Phil. | Jalen Hurts | 8.95 |
| Cle. | Baker Mayfield | 8.64 |
| LAR | Matthew Stafford | 8.47 |
| Buff. | Josh Allen | 8.21 |
| Min. | Kirk Cousins | 8.16 |
| L.V. | Derek Carr | 8.13 |
| Cin. | Joe Burrow | 8.06 |
| T.B. | Tom Brady | 8.05 |
| Den. | Teddy Bridgewater | 8.02 |
| Ariz. | Kyler Murray | 8.00 |
| N.E. | Mac Jones | 7.99 |
| Jac. | Trevor Lawrence | 7.88 |
| G.B. | Aaron Rodgers | 7.72 |
| Dall. | Dak Prescott | 7.70 |
| Ind. | Carson Wentz | 7.64 |
| Was. | Taylor Heinicke | 7.62 |
| NYJ | Zach Wilson | 7.57 |
| LAC | Justin Herbert | 7.55 |
| Mia. | Jacoby Brissett | 7.52 |
| Balt. | Tyler Huntley | 7.49 |
| S.F. | Jimmy Garoppolo | 7.49 |
| Ten. | Ryan Tannehill | 7.46 |
| K.C. | Patrick Mahomes | 7.34 |
| Car. | Sam Darnold | 7.26 |
| NYG | Daniel Jones | 7.25 |
| Hou. | Davis Mills | 7.24 |
| Atl. | Matt Ryan | 7.12 |
| Mia. | Tua Tagovailoa | 7.05 |
| N.O. | Trevor Siemian | 6.90 |
| Chi. | Andy Dalton | 6.86 |
| Pitt. | Ben Roethlisberger | 6.70 |
| Det. | Jared Goff | 6.38 |
—Ian Allan