The Saints and Eagles obtained big-time receivers on the first day of the draft – New Orleans with the 11th pick in the first round, Philadelphia via trade. But I’m not confident that either team has the infrastructure to bring those guys to life.
Chris Olave is an unusually polished looking prospect, having played four years at Ohio State. He’s caught a lot of balls, setting the school record for touchdown catches along the way (including 20 in his last 18 games). He seems to be a better route-runner than a typical rookie.
But I have no confidence in Jameis Winston. I don’t think the Saints do either. In his six full games last year (I’m setting aside his final game, with him being sidelined early by a season-ending injury) he averaged only 25 pass attempts. That was not only the fewest in the league, but 4 fewer than every other team. About half the league averaged 35 pass attempts per game. They took the ball out of his hands.
I imagine the Saints will let Winston do more this year. I don’t think they really have a choice. But as they go down that road, I think we’ll see the interceptions and head-scratching mistakes resurface. Winston is 28 years old; he’s started 77 games, and I think we have all seen what he is. I don’t think Winston can maximize Olave.
Similarly with A.J. Brown, who’s now with the Eagles. Great player (and, unlike Olave, he’s already proven he can do it at the NFL level). But Philadelphia I don’t think has the quarterback to properly make that passing game go. Jalen Hurts is a great runner, which causes problems for defenses. But I don’t think he has the ability to play from the pocket, properly figuring out where the ball needs to go and throwing it with timing and accuracy.
The Eagles got good last year when they bailed on the passing game and went to run-dominated game plans for the final two thirds of the season. That’s what got them to the playoffs.
Winston averaged 25 pass attempts in his full games last year. The Eagles were the next team up – at 29 attempts per week (Hurts averaged 27 attempts in the second half of the season).
I like Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. That’s a receiving trifecta a team can get excited about. But not with Hurts at quarterback. Not with that style of offense. (In a league where we’re getting into drafting backup quarterbacks, I’m thinking Gardner Minshew should be one of the first selected; should he get in there, that passing game might really take off.)
As with the Saints, I expect the Eagles will pass more this year. You don’t use first-round picks on wide receivers then ignore them. But unlikely, I think, that they improve enough to make Brown viable.
As it stands, the Saints and Eagles last year completed the fewer passes in the league. Perhaps they move up a few spots this year, but these aren’t passing offenses that interest me.
| 2021 PASSING -- COMPLETIONS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Com | Att | Pct | Yds | TD | Int |
| Tampa Bay | 492 | 731 | 67.3 | 5,383 | 43 | 12 |
| Kansas City | 448 | 675 | 66.4 | 4,937 | 37 | 13 |
| Dallas | 444 | 647 | 68.6 | 4,963 | 40 | 11 |
| LA Chargers | 443 | 674 | 65.7 | 5,014 | 38 | 15 |
| Las Vegas | 429 | 628 | 68.3 | 4,808 | 23 | 14 |
| Pittsburgh | 425 | 664 | 64.0 | 4,017 | 23 | 11 |
| Buffalo | 415 | 655 | 63.4 | 4,450 | 36 | 16 |
| Arizona | 415 | 591 | 70.2 | 4,619 | 27 | 11 |
| LA Rams | 406 | 607 | 66.9 | 4,893 | 41 | 18 |
| Miami | 404 | 615 | 65.7 | 3,936 | 21 | 14 |
| Green Bay | 402 | 593 | 67.8 | 4,526 | 39 | 7 |
| Minnesota | 398 | 604 | 65.9 | 4,450 | 34 | 7 |
| Baltimore | 396 | 611 | 64.8 | 4,267 | 21 | 18 |
| Detroit | 396 | 593 | 66.8 | 3,884 | 23 | 14 |
| Cincinnati | 384 | 555 | 69.2 | 4,806 | 36 | 14 |
| Atlanta | 377 | 573 | 65.8 | 3,987 | 20 | 15 |
| New England | 364 | 535 | 68.0 | 4,098 | 24 | 13 |
| Jacksonville | 361 | 604 | 59.8 | 3,674 | 12 | 17 |
| Tennessee | 359 | 535 | 67.1 | 3,745 | 22 | 14 |
| NY Jets | 357 | 603 | 59.2 | 3,959 | 20 | 20 |
| Washington | 356 | 550 | 64.7 | 3,746 | 21 | 15 |
| Houston | 354 | 546 | 64.8 | 3,630 | 21 | 15 |
| Denver | 354 | 541 | 65.4 | 3,856 | 20 | 9 |
| NY Giants | 351 | 593 | 59.2 | 3,463 | 15 | 20 |
| Carolina | 348 | 599 | 58.1 | 3,573 | 14 | 21 |
| San Francisco | 343 | 514 | 66.7 | 4,437 | 26 | 14 |
| Chicago | 332 | 542 | 61.3 | 3,635 | 16 | 20 |
| Indianapolis | 324 | 521 | 62.2 | 3,588 | 27 | 8 |
| Seattle | 324 | 495 | 65.5 | 3,815 | 30 | 7 |
| Cleveland | 320 | 520 | 61.5 | 3,619 | 21 | 14 |
| Philadelphia | 307 | 494 | 62.1 | 3,585 | 20 | 10 |
| New Orleans | 293 | 504 | 58.1 | 3,437 | 29 | 13 |
—Ian Allan