Dynasty Leagues

May 06, 2022

First-round wideouts

Hit rates on top-15 picks

My dynasty league rookie draft commences this weekend, and I expect the first round will be wide receiver-heavy. That was the case in the actual NFL Draft, with four selected in the top 12 picks. I wondered how often those players pan out in the NFL -- what are the odds of them busting?

I looked at all the wide receivers selected with a top 15 draft pick this century, like Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Jameson Williams just were. There have been 41 since 2000, so 2 per year on average. Then I pulled out the best season (PPR rankings) for each player.

Of those 41 previous wide receivers, almost exactly half of them (21) had a top-20 fantasy season at some point. That alone doesn't make those picks a success story, however, since some of them only did it once and had an otherwise forgettable careers: Koren Robinson, Michael Clayton, Peter Warrick and Rod Gardner. No way would those players be selected in the top 15 again.

Better to say that 12 (so a little more than a quarter of them) had at least one top-10 season. Roy Williams had one, and his overall career wasn't successful, and the same can be said about Braylon Edwards. But most of those guys did it multiple times, and many are among the best wideouts in the game over the last 20 years: Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Julio Jones, A.J. Green.

Of the 20 wide receivers from this group yet to record a top-20 season, a couple are just getting started and might well do it in the next year or two: DeVonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy. A couple of the others have at least been decent pros: Corey Davis, and Charger Mike Williams.

But 14 of them didn't ever record a top-20 season, and most of those weren't particularly close to it. Those are the disappointments: Kevin White, Corey Coleman, David Terrell, etc.

The best seasons from those 41 top-15 wide receiver picks from this century are below. Historically, looks like about a 1-in-3 chance that the players selected never come close to living up to expectations. Hope you don't pick that guy in your rookie draft.

TOP 15 WIDE RECEIVER PICKS, BEST NFL SEASONS
Pk	Year	Player	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD	Rk
3	2009	Andre Johnson	171	101	1569	15.5	9	1
2	2012	Calvin Johnson	204	122	1964	16.1	5	1
6	2015	Julio Jones	203	136	1871	13.8	8	2
3	2008	Larry Fitzgerald	154	96	1431	14.9	12	2
7	2016	Mike Evans	173	96	1321	13.8	12	3
4	2013	A.J. Green	178	98	1426	14.6	11	4
3	2007	Braylon Edwards	154	80	1289	16.1	16	4
12	2016	Odell Beckham	169	101	1367	13.5	10	4
5	2021	JaMarr Chase	128	81	1455	18.0	13	5
13	2006	Lee Evans	137	82	1292	15.8	8	8
7	2006	Roy Williams	151	82	1310	16.0	7	9
4	2019	Amari Cooper	119	79	1189	15.1	8	10
14	2019	DeVante Parker	128	72	1202	16.7	9	11
8	2005	Plaxico Burress	166	76	1214	16.0	7	11
6	2021	Jaylen Waddle	140	104	1015	9.8	6	12
10	2016	Michael Crabtree	145	89	1003	11.3	8	12
9	2002	Koren Robinson	141	78	1240	15.9	5	14
15	2004	Michael Clayton	122	80	1193	14.9	7	14
4	2003	Peter Warrick	122	79	819	10.4	7	16
15	2002	Rod Gardner	141	71	1006	14.2	8	19
4	2015	Sammy Watkins	96	60	1047	17.5	9	20
13	2005	Donte Stallworth	129	70	945	13.5	7	23
10	2002	Travis Taylor	118	61	869	14.3	6	25
13	2013	Michael Floyd	113	65	1041	16.0	5	27
8	2015	Tavon Austin	87	52	473	9.1	5	27
7	2011	Darrius Heyward-Bey	115	64	975	15.2	4	28
5	2020	Corey Davis	92	65	984	15.1	5	29
5	2012	Justin Blackmon	132	64	865	13.5	5	29
10	2021	DeVonta Smith	104	64	916	14.3	5	30
7	2018	Mike Williams (Clemson)	66	43	664	15.4	10	33
9	2008	Ted Ginn	93	56	790	14.1	2	33
9	2007	Reggie Williams	60	38	629	16.6	10	35
10	2010	Mike Williams (USC)	110	65	751	11.6	2	41
15	2020	Jerry Jeudy	113	52	856	16.5	3	45
8	2004	David Terrell	90	42	699	16.6	1	55
9	2019	John Ross	56	28	506	18.1	3	74
7	2006	Troy Williamson	76	37	455	12.3	0	77
15	2016	Corey Coleman	73	33	413	12.5	3	82
12	2021	Henry Ruggs	36	24	469	19.5	2	86
2	2003	Charles Rogers	52	22	243	11.1	3	88
7	2016	Kevin White	36	19	187	9.8	0	122

--Andy Richardson

rookie drafts

Older

Newer

My dad and I have subscribed since I was 10 years old and I am 38 now. We canʼt go a season without it.

Trevor T. Sparks, Nev.

You guys are great - if you look at my account, I believe I have been a subscriber for around 20 years! Unfortunately, a few years ago a couple of other owners found the same publication (they didnʼt get it from me; I always disguised the sheets while at the draft!)

Michael B. St. Charles, Mo.

I have purchased your magazine since my first fantasy football season ever 12 season ago and love the insight you offer. Thank you for the great service, I look forward to many many more years of enjoying your subscription!

Paul L. Mequon, Wisc.

The magazine is exactly the same as last year, which is perfect. Boys, we have a chance to repeat in the 33rd year of the NWFFL. I am counting on you to help pull it off. FI has been a league staple for decades, one of my guys has every edition. A few years ago, we devised a clever way to use one of your lists to draft a team for an absent owner, the sob won it all. We love you guys. Peace!

Glenn S. Olympia, Wash.

Hi, received my copy over the weekend and I think it's the best work you guys have done (I've been reading your publication since 1988). The writing is terrific and full of good humor, along with more substance than anybody else has.

Keep up the great work!

John L. Madison, Wis.

I'm in 3 leagues. All have different formats. I bought one magazine, the same magazine for 30 years. I keep the Fantasy Football Index handy and refer back to your preseason reports throughout the season to help me evaluate roster moves in every format. This week I'm in two championship games and a semifinal. Did I tell you I'm in three leagues? Three playoff teams! Best fantasy season ever. Thank you.

Henry G. Bartlett, Ill.

Thanks for another great season of Fantasy Index, you avoid group-think and form your own opinions, and always have. I've been using your products since 1992, and you've always been a cut above the rest.

Rob D. Wellington, Fla.

Thank you for all you do and what your team does. Been playing since mid 90s and your mag has been there every year. The mailer I get with the questions on the front is what I consider the beginning of the fantasy football season. Get the updates and listen to the podcast. I write a weekly column for the newspaper I work at and always appreciate the work you put in to produce as much as you do. Just a fan saying thanks and will keep up with you and the site through the season.

Jason C. Tulsa, Okla.

A little feedback from a long time customer.

Our fantasy pool is entering its 25^th year and I have used multiple books and on-line tools over the years.

I have locked on to Fantasy Index as my go to for the last 5 years and have won the pool 3 of those years and finished no lower than 4^th.

Interesting to see how much more accurate you were at the end of the year compared to other books my competitors used.

Having it in a format that allows me to work the forecasts to match our scoring system and then receive updates as the season approaches is invaluable. Whoever your sources are for the forecasts are the best. Hang on to them. Thanks for the help!!

Peter M. London, Ontario, Canada

I did receive the updated draft ranking from you guys in plenty of time for my draft that night. My draft report gave me an A+ and predicted me to go 14-0 and win my league! I just want to say thank you for the excellent customer service that your company provided me. When I first started playing fantasy football more than 15 years ago, I used to buy as many fantasy football magazines as I could find. It wasnʼt long before I only purchased Fantasy Football Index each year. It is by far the most comprehensive, well written fantasy football magazine on the market. Also, I almost always rank in the top three in my fantasy football leagues, and won my league last year. Thank you to you and all of your great team. You have a customer for life!

Trey C. Fort Worth, Texas

Thank you for all the updates etc. In the last 14 or 15 years, we have placed in the top three 9 times winning it all 4 times. I have been a customer of yours for many years. Our success is partially due to luck, but I think your magazine with all of the good stuff has been a real contributing factor. Keep up the good work. Will be a customer until the time I can't read anymore.

Richard M. Imperial, Neb.

I just wanted to send everyone at Fantasy Football Index an apology. Since 2003 (Ricky Williams cover), I've protected my source of information and have gone out of my way to hide Fantasy Football Index from my leagues prying eyes. I've won championships in leagues and money playing Daily Fantasy and your Training Camp updates are the highlight of my summer and a recurring order for me every single season. I just wanted to Thank You and everyone there (customer service, the writers, janitors, secretaries and assistants) for your hard work and dedication.

You are appreciated and valued part of my Fantasy Football Operations department even if i never speak your name in fear that others in my league will discover the wondrous bounty of knowledge contained in your pages…

From the bottom of a champion's heart,

Dave M. Elma, N.Y.

I wanted to send a quick note and thank you for your great magazine! The information you provide, has allowed me to win my league 3 years in a row!

The payoff in the league is not bad, six hundred dollars to be exact, but it is those all important bragging rights that really make it fun!

I epically enjoyed this last issue because you included all the covers for the past 30 years, I did not buy 87, and 88, but all the rest I have purchased.

All I have to do is read and then plug and play, thanks again for doing all the work so I don't have to, except for cash the check of course! Lol.

I will be continue to purchase your magazine, and recommend it to others, although I don't like to give away my secret!

I typically don't write emails to magazines, but after 3 wins in a row, and others which I did not list, I felt like you would like to know.

Thanks again to you and your staff,

Darrell W. Holt, Mich.

I wanted to let you know I finished my season going 16-0 winning my league, breaking every record in our 19 year history along the way. A special thank you to FI for the insightful knowledge as it provided me much help along the way.

Ryan M. Lynnwood, Wash.

You guys do a great job. I got laughed at by a few people at the draft but they're not laughing now. I'm leading the league in record (8-1) and PF thus far.

John W. Aylett, Va.

And a side note… we've got a re-draft 16-team, 20 players drafted league (drafting water boys by the 17^th round) that I've won 2 years in a row. Nobody's ever done that in 21 years… using your cheat sheet. it's an old school league that used to draft out of piles of magazines.

Thanks again,

Todd S. Grand Junction, Colo.

This is my ninth year competing with my two very savey adult children and their 11 regulars to make it a 14 team draft with a $200 bid limit. Your SuperFanatic package has put me into the 6 team play- offs 4 out of the 8 years and there is no way I could compete with these guys without my cheat sheets! They still have no idea how I can be so lucky every year :-) Cheaters do prosper!!!!

Robert A.

I wanted to thank you for such an amazing product and your customer service. I ordered the wrong date for my update and called to correct the mistake. Your customer service person was very kind, helpful and took care of the issue immediately.

I have used your product for the past 18 years or so… Every now and then I will be tempted and look at what other magazines have to offer, quickly realizing no one comes close.

In addition to the magazine, I started buying the weekly updates years ago when my dad taught me a lesson. The draft came and dad was sitting in the 12 hole for his pick. He told me he felt very comfortable about who he was going to select but would not tell me who his prized gem was to be. I was doubtful. The pick? Priest Holmes (his first dynamite year). I remember telling my dad, "that is a decent pick but they plan to pull him at the goal line." Ever the teacher, dad explained he had purchased the Fantasy Football Index update and read Holmes would get the goal line carries. "Update?", I asked. That was 2002 and Holmes had 21 rushing TDs and Dad won the title! Lesson learned.

By the way, I have made the title game for the last 5 years in a row. Thanks for the detailed, hard work and an great product!

David R. Queen Creek, Ariz.

Fantasy Index

Customer Service

Dynasty Leagues

First-round wideouts

Today's Trivia

Mailbag

Member updates

Follow

Why Choose Fantasy Index?

Quick hits

Your Stuff

In-Depth

Resources

All Products

Help & Support

Fantasy Index

Customer Service

Customer Service