A popular sentiment this year is to trade rookie picks for 2023 selections, when the NFL Draft will supposedly be deeper. That's true at quarterback, and maybe makes extra sense in Superflex leagues, but I don't think 2022 is that bad at running back and receiver.
There are plenty of youngsters I'm interested in. There were 16 wide receivers drafted in the first three rounds (and 20 by the end of round 4) and 16 running backs selected by the end of round 5. Those rounds are dreadful spots for quarterbacks to be drafted, but there will be some starting running backs to come out of there, and plenty of wide receivers who will emerge. There's no Kyle Pitts this year, but there were 10 tight ends selected between rounds 2 and 4, and those guys will also make an impact, especially in TE-premium dynasty leagues like mine.
I wrote about how I thought round 1 of my rookie draft might go yesterday; here is what I'm expecting from round 2 and 3. Next week I'll come back and recap it, and we'll see how close things were to what I expected.
2.01. George Pickens, Steelers. Maybe too early for a perceived first-round talent who fell to late in the second round, but Pittsburgh has a remarkable track record of selecting wide receivers, and Pickens looks like a future No. 1 who reportedly fell for reasons unrelated to what he can do on the field -- suggestions that teams didn't like his attitude or personality or somesuch. The Steelers also have a question mark at quarterback, and two other good wideouts. Maybe Pickens goes a few picks later, but he'll be a second-rounder in this draft.
2.02. Dameon Pierce, Texans. Eventually Houston will get things turned around, figuring out some things on offense and shuffling off the dreck they accumulated last year. I don't have much optimism for a Marlon Mack bounce-back and don't think much of Rex Burkhead, so Pierce, a solidly built fourth-rounder (5-10, 218) seems likely to ascend this depth chart fairly quickly.
2.03. Skyy Moore, Kansas City. Moore is a hard-nosed, smaller wideout in the Golden Tate mode who ran a 4.4 at the combine and steps into a Kansas City receiving corps that is basically starting over this year. A big rookie-year impact is unlikely, but could very well be a starter working with Patrick Mahomes by next season.
2.04. Rachaad White, Bucs. White has a three-down skill set, big enough to run inside and also an accomplished receiver (he caught 43 passes for Arizona State last season). I could make a case for him a little bit earlier, though he's initially blocked by Leonard Fournette here. But these guys get hurt, and White will probably be needed to play a big role at some point this season, and beyond.
2.05. Trey McBride, Cardinals. The top TE drafted -- only one selected in the first two rounds -- will be behind Zach Ertz in the short term, but nobody really thinks 31-year-old Ertz will be playing out the full three-year deal he just signed. McBride caught 90 passes for 1,121 yards at Colorado State last year (just 1 TD, weirdly enough). Tight ends get 1.5 points per reception in this league. Little chance he makes it to my pick at 2.11, unfortunately.
2.06. Jahan Dotson, Commanders. A first-round pick, somewhat unexpectedly, so clearly Washington has big plans for him (and of course, they don't yet have a long-term deal in place with Terry McLaurin). But he's small (5-11, 178) and every small speedy guy can't be the next DeSean Jackson. Draft capital will get him taken in this draft, but probably after most of the second-round wide receivers.
2.07. Tyrion Davis-Price, 49ers. You know the drill. A Shanahan drafts a running back, regardless of what round, and he might be a future fantasy starter. Davis-Price was the fifth running back drafted, making him someone you have to pay attention to.
2.08. Jelani Woods, Colts. Indianapolis was short on draft picks, so the fact they used an early third on Woods is intriguing. Jack Doyle retired, leaving just Mo Alie-Cox and last year's fourth-rounder Kylen Granson at the position. I'm a Granson fan, but clearly Woods will get a shot to prove he's the best pass catcher at the position in a team that likes to throw to the position. He caught 44 passes and 8 TDs at Virginia last year.
2.09. Tyler Allgeier, Falcons. Atlanta released Mike Davis, leaving them with basically just Cordarrelle Patterson (who's 31) and Damien Williams (30) at running back. Qadree Ollison, whatever. There's a nonzero chance that 5-foot-11, 224-pound Allgeier is starting for this offense a year from now.
2.10. Snoop Conner, Jaguars. James Robinson is coming off a torn Achilles, while Travis Etienne is coming off injury, is a total unknown at the NFL level, and may have been an Urban Meyer pick. Conner was just a fifth-rounder, but who's to say he can't emerge as the best player in this backfield, depending on Robinson's recovery.
2.11. Kenny Pickett, Steelers. This is probably a little early, but there are still teams who will select a starting quarterback at this point, hoping they've uncovered a long-term starter. I like Pickett's chances of developing in Pittsburgh, where there's a nice group of pass catchers and a good receiving back available to him, than I would have anywhere else.
2.12. Malik Willis, Titans. Willis falling to the third round was a stunner, and a clear indication that most teams don't think he'll be a viable quarterback in the NFL. In college he was more runner than passer, and it's going to take a lot of work to get him coached up into a starter. But the raw material -- athleticism, arm strength -- is there, and he remains the kind of player worth stashing at the very bottom of a deep dynasty roster on the off-chance they're able to develop him.
I'll modify my previous statement: if you have 3rd-round picks in typical rookie drafts, might be worth trading them for 2023 picks. The 12 players I'm projecting to get picked in the final round of my draft probably aren't going to be much more appealing than the rookies available on waivers afterward.
3.01. WR Alec Pierce, Colts.
3.02. RB Pierre Strong, Patriots.
3.03. TE Greg Dulcich, Broncos.
3.04. WR Tyquan Thornton, Patriots.
3.05. QB Desmond Ridder, Falcons.
3.06. RB Hassan Haskins, Titans.
3.07. QB Matt Corral, Panthers.
3.08. WR John Metchie, Texans.
3.09. WR WanDale Robinson, Giants.
3.10. TE Jeremy Ruckert, Jets.
3.11. RB Kyren Williams, Rams.
3.12. RB Jerome Ford, Browns.
--Andy Richardson