With Josh Allen, I notice that he’s not running as effectively in short-yardage situations as he has in the past. He’s a weapon, but teams are more aware of him now – making stopping him more of a priority. The Titans, most famously, coming up with a key goal-line stop at the end of a Monday night game.
I looked into the numbers some on this, and they confirm what I have suspected. Allen’s success rate hasn’t been as high on those kind of plays.
Consider “and one” rushing plays. This is any play where the team needs 1 yard to either score a touchdown or to keep a drive alive (a third-and-one or fourth-and-one running play).
Allen in his first two seasons was 24 out of 25 on those plays – seemingly unstoppable. But in the last two seasons, he’s gone only 21 of 29. That’s ordinary for a quarterback. I think teams are looking for that now.
Over the last two years, 10 quarterbacks have handled the ball on at least 15 of those plays. Allen has been the least effective of all of them. Another 11 have at least 10 of those attempts, and seven of them have had higher success rates than Allen.
| QB: SHORT-YARDAGE RUSHING (last 2 yrs) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Players | "Good" | Att | Pct |
| Tom Brady, T.B. | 12 | 12 | 100.0% |
| Jimmy Garoppolo, S.F. | 11 | 11 | 100.0% |
| Ryan Tannehill, Tenn. | 20 | 22 | 90.9% |
| Mac Jones, N.E. | 10 | 11 | 90.9% |
| Baker Mayfield, Clev. | 9 | 10 | 90.0% |
| Justin Herbert, LAC | 15 | 17 | 88.2% |
| Carson Wentz, Phi.-Ind. | 21 | 24 | 87.5% |
| Jacoby Brissett, Ind.-Mia. | 14 | 16 | 87.5% |
| Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 13 | 15 | 86.7% |
| Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 16 | 19 | 84.2% |
| Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 16 | 19 | 84.2% |
| Teddy Bridgewater, Car.-Den. | 8 | 10 | 80.0% |
| Taysom Hill, N.O. | 15 | 19 | 78.9% |
| Derek Carr, L.V. | 11 | 14 | 78.6% |
| Cam Newton, N.E.-Car. | 21 | 27 | 77.8% |
| Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 10 | 13 | 76.9% |
| Josh Allen, Buff. | 21 | 29 | 72.4% |
| Jared Goff, LAR-Det. | 7 | 10 | 70.0% |
| Sam Darnold, NYJ-Car. | 7 | 10 | 70.0% |
| Joe Burrow, Cin. | 8 | 13 | 61.5% |
| Daniel Jones, NYG | 6 | 10 | 60.0% |
—Ian Allan