The Steelers have three potential starting quarterbacks on their roster: holdover Mason Rudolph, free agent addition Mitch Trubisky, and first-round draft pick Kenny Pickett. It's not an earth-shattering statement to say that Pickett will probably start the majority of the team's games this season.
When first-round quarterbacks don't start most of their rookie seasons, as was the case with Trey Lance for San Francisco last year, it's increasingly rare -- anomalous, you could say. Over the last 15 years there have been 49 quarterbacks selected in the first round. Thirty-five (nearly three-quarters) started more than half of their rookie season. Forty of them (82 percent) started at least 5 games. That includes Deshaun Watson, who failed to start half the season simply because of getting hurt.
In the table, sorted by rookie year starts, 2021's first-rounders are in bold. Four of five started at least 10 games. Maybe Trubisky looks stellar in August, but that's the most likely outcome for Pickett, too.
| FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS, ROOKIE SEASONS (2006-PRESENT) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pk | Year | Player | GS | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int |
| 15 | 2021 | Mac Jones, N.E. | 17 | 352 | 521 | 3801 | 22 | 13 |
| 1 | 2021 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 17 | 359 | 602 | 3641 | 12 | 17 |
| 1 | 2019 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 16 | 349 | 542 | 3722 | 20 | 12 |
| 2 | 2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 16 | 379 | 607 | 3782 | 16 | 14 |
| 1 | 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 312 | 535 | 4042 | 22 | 15 |
| 1 | 2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 16 | 339 | 627 | 4374 | 23 | 18 |
| 8 | 2012 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 16 | 282 | 484 | 3294 | 12 | 13 |
| 1 | 2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 310 | 517 | 4051 | 21 | 17 |
| 1 | 2010 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 16 | 354 | 590 | 3512 | 18 | 15 |
| 3 | 2008 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 16 | 265 | 434 | 3440 | 16 | 11 |
| 18 | 2008 | Joe Flacco, Balt. | 16 | 257 | 428 | 2971 | 14 | 12 |
| 6 | 2020 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 15 | 396 | 595 | 4336 | 31 | 10 |
| 2 | 2012 | Robert Griffin, Was. | 15 | 258 | 393 | 3200 | 20 | 5 |
| 22 | 2012 | Brandon Weeden, Cle. | 15 | 297 | 517 | 3385 | 14 | 17 |
| 5 | 2009 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 15 | 196 | 364 | 2444 | 12 | 20 |
| 10 | 2011 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 14 | 210 | 413 | 2214 | 12 | 11 |
| 2 | 2021 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | 13 | 213 | 383 | 2334 | 9 | 11 |
| 1 | 2018 | Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 13 | 310 | 486 | 3725 | 27 | 14 |
| 3 | 2018 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 13 | 239 | 414 | 2865 | 17 | 15 |
| 10 | 2018 | Josh Rosen, Ariz. | 13 | 217 | 393 | 2278 | 11 | 14 |
| 3 | 2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 13 | 280 | 475 | 2908 | 11 | 17 |
| 3 | 2006 | Vince Young, Ten. | 13 | 184 | 357 | 2199 | 12 | 13 |
| 6 | 2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 12 | 284 | 459 | 3027 | 24 | 12 |
| 2 | 2017 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 12 | 196 | 330 | 2193 | 7 | 7 |
| 2 | 2015 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 12 | 230 | 370 | 2818 | 19 | 10 |
| 32 | 2014 | Teddy Bridgewater, Min. | 12 | 259 | 402 | 2919 | 14 | 12 |
| 7 | 2018 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 11 | 169 | 320 | 2074 | 10 | 12 |
| 10 | 2006 | Matt Leinart, Ariz. | 11 | 214 | 377 | 2547 | 11 | 12 |
| 11 | 2021 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 10 | 159 | 270 | 1870 | 7 | 10 |
| 1 | 2020 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 10 | 264 | 404 | 2688 | 13 | 5 |
| 16 | 2013 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 10 | 180 | 306 | 1972 | 11 | 9 |
| 12 | 2011 | Christian Ponder, Min. | 10 | 158 | 291 | 1853 | 13 | 13 |
| 1 | 2009 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 10 | 201 | 377 | 2267 | 13 | 20 |
| 5 | 2020 | Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 9 | 186 | 290 | 1814 | 11 | 5 |
| 17 | 2009 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | 9 | 158 | 290 | 1855 | 10 | 18 |
| 15 | 2019 | Dwayne Haskins, Was. | 7 | 119 | 203 | 1365 | 7 | 7 |
| 32 | 2018 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 7 | 99 | 170 | 1201 | 6 | 3 |
| 1 | 2016 | Jared Goff, LAR | 7 | 112 | 205 | 1089 | 5 | 7 |
| 12 | 2017 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 6 | 126 | 204 | 1699 | 19 | 8 |
| 11 | 2006 | Jay Cutler, Den. | 5 | 81 | 137 | 1001 | 9 | 5 |
| 25 | 2010 | Tim Tebow, Den. | 3 | 41 | 82 | 654 | 5 | 3 |
| 3 | 2021 | Trey Lance, S.F. | 2 | 41 | 71 | 603 | 5 | 2 |
| 26 | 2016 | Paxton Lynch, Den. | 2 | 49 | 83 | 497 | 2 | 1 |
| 22 | 2014 | Johnny Manziel, Cle. | 2 | 18 | 35 | 175 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | 2017 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 1 | 22 | 35 | 284 | 0 | 1 |
| 1 | 2007 | JaMarcus Russell, Oak. | 1 | 36 | 66 | 373 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | 2011 | Jake Locker, Ten. | 0 | 34 | 66 | 542 | 4 | 0 |
| 22 | 2007 | Brady Quinn, Cle. | 0 | 3 | 8 | 45 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 | 2020 | Jordan Love, G.B. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Daunting company for Lance. Patrick Mahomes might be the game's best quarterback. Six of the other seven first-rounders to start 3 or fewer games as rookies were out of the league very quickly: Tebow, Lynch, Manziel, Russell, Locker, Quinn. Green Bay giving Aaron Rodgers a multi-year deal augurs poorly for Jordan Love ever amounting to anything. Not much middle ground between star and bust from those guys the last 15 years. Seems like Lance will either hit it big, or, you know.
I like what I've seen of Pickett. He wasn't drafted where you'll typically see a lot of NFL successes (from the above list, the only successful quarterback drafted in a similar spot is Lamar Jackson), and several teams in need of a quarterback (like Carolina) let him pass them by. But he's unusually experienced (49 college starts), and he's going to a franchise that has some nice things in place -- established, winning coaching staff, good receiving corps, capable running back who can help out by catching dumpoffs. It's not a bad situation.
Fantasywise, Pickett is probably limited to dynasty and perhaps Superflex appeal. He's not going to be a dynamic runner, so little chance he ranks among the top 15 quarterbacks as a rookie (maybe not top 20). But I think his chances of hitting and being a successful NFL quarterback are good. He's the only rookie quarterback this year I can say that about.
--Andy Richardson