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Ken Walker

Early second round has strong recent history

A report out of Seahawk OTAs yesterday is that Rashaad Penny is dealing with a hamstring injury. Ordinarily not a big deal, with it being May, but it prompts a raised eyebrow given Penny's poor career track record of durability. And has me thinking about rookie Ken Walker.

Seattle drafted Walker, one of the consensus top 2 running backs in the draft, with the 41st overall pick. The Jets had previously selected Breece Hall with the 36th pick. It's an area of the draft that's been a sweet spot for selecting running backs in recent years.

In the last 10 years, there have been 12 running backs selected between picks 33-48; the first half of the second round. Ten of those players have had at least one top-20 fantasy season (PPR); eight have had a top-15 year. Six have done it multiple times. Pretty stellar track record.

Table shows all the top-40 fantasy seasons those 12 players have put up the last 10 years, sorted by FF rank.

RBS DRAFTED FIRST HALF OF SECOND ROUND, 2012-2021
DraftPkYearPlayerAttRunNoRecTDFF
2020412021Jonathan Taylor, Ind.332181140360201
2013482014LeVeon Bell, Pitt.290136183854111
2017412020Dalvin Cook, Min.312155744361172
2013482017LeVeon Bell, Pitt.321129185655112
2016452020Derrick Henry, Ten.378202719114173
2013482016LeVeon Bell, Pitt.26112687561693
2017482021Joe Mixon, Cin.292120542314164
2016452019Derrick Henry, Ten.303154018206185
2017412019Dalvin Cook, Min.250113553519136
2020412020Jonathan Taylor, Ind.232116936299126
2018352019Nick Chubb, Cle.29814943627888
2017482018Joe Mixon, Cin.237116843296910
2018352020Nick Chubb, Cle.1901067161501211
2013372013Giovani Bernard, Cin.17069556514813
2017482019Joe Mixon, Cin.278113735287813
2018352021Nick Chubb, Cle.228125920174913
2020352021D'Andre Swift, Det.15161762452715
2013482013LeVeon Bell, Pitt.24486045399815
2017412021Dalvin Cook, Min.249115934224616
2020352020D'Andre Swift, Det.114521463571016
2016452018Derrick Henry, Ten.215105915991216
2013482019LeVeon Bell, NYJ24578966461416
2021352021Javonte Williams, Den.20390343316717
2018352018Nick Chubb, Cle.192996201491017
2013372015Giovani Bernard, Cin.15473049472218
2013372014Giovani Bernard, Cin.16868043349718
2018382020Ronald Jones, T.B.19297828165819
2016452021Derrick Henry, Ten.219937181541022
2015362018T.J. Yeldon, Jac.10441455487522
2018382019Ronald Jones, T.B.17272431309625
2015362015T.J. Yeldon, Jac.18274036279328
2013372017Giovani Bernard, Cin.10545843389429
2017412018Dalvin Cook, Min.13361540305430
2013372020Giovani Bernard, Cin.12441647355630
2017482017Joe Mixon, Cin.17862630287433
2018432018Kerryon Johnson, Det.11864132213433
2015362016T.J. Yeldon, Jac.13046550312234
2016452017Derrick Henry, Ten.17674411136637

Not all of those 10 players have lived up to expectations. Ronald Jones has been a disappointment. So were the two running backs who didn't put up that top 20 season, Kerryon Johnson and T.J. Yeldon.

But I'm not sure you'll get a better track record at any position for a specific area of the draft. Bell, Henry, Taylor, Chubb, Cook, Mixon, Swift, Bernard, Javonte. Impressive.

We've talked a little about Breece Hall here, Walker not as much. Watching his film, he's got nice acceleration and power. I see a lot of plays where he's bouncing runs outside, which is concerning -- maybe too much trying to get the edge rather than taking what's in front of him. He wasn't used in the passing game at all, and Pete Carroll actually joked about his receiving skills or lack thereof recently, so unwise to count on him getting those opportunities.

But he's probably going to play plenty as a rookie, and maybe start some games. Definitely should be one of the top rookie backs selected. And seem to be really good odds of him turning out well.

--Andy Richardson

Fantasy Index