Around the NFL

May 26, 2022

CeeDee Lamb

Will No. 1 be a top-10 wideout?

Who's in on CeeDee Lamb? With Amari Cooper gone, he's going to be Dallas' No. 1 wideout, and the No. 2, Michael Gallup, is coming off a torn ACL that might limit him early on. But Lamb's early price tag looks a little scary to me.

In the Experts Draft for the magazine, he was the 7th wide receiver drafted, just four picks into the second round. For him to live up to that, he'll need to outperfom Dallas's other top wide receivers in the Dak Prescott era. The offense hasn't tended to force balls into one player.

Prescott's been starting since 2016, with the one year in there where he was hurt early on. In just one of those seasons has the offense had a top-10 wide receiver (PPR scoring). Cooper finished 10th at the position in 2019. In the five other seasons, Dallas' top wide receiver finished 19th (Lamb last year), 15th, 19th, 24th and 33rd. Those are good numbers, but Lamb will need to do more where he's currently being selected.

Table shows the top 3 fantasy wideouts in Dallas's offense since 2016, sorted by rank in each season.

TOP DALLAS WIDEOUTS, 2016-2021
Year	Player	Tgt	No	Yds	TD	FF
2021	CeeDee Lamb	120	79	1102	6	19
2021	Amari Cooper	104	68	865	8	27
2021	Cedrick Wilson	61	45	602	6	45
2020	Amari Cooper	130	92	1114	5	15
2020	CeeDee Lamb	111	74	935	5	22
2020	Michael Gallup	105	59	843	5	38
2019	Amari Cooper	119	79	1189	8	10
2019	Michael Gallup	113	66	1107	6	24
2019	Randall Cobb	83	55	828	3	42
2018	Amari Cooper	107	75	1005	7	19
2018	Cole Beasley	87	65	672	3	44
2018	Michael Gallup	68	33	507	2	78
2017	Dez Bryant	132	69	838	6	24
2017	Terrance Williams	78	53	568	0	62
2017	Cole Beasley	63	36	314	4	73
2016	Cole Beasley	98	75	833	5	33
2016	Dez Bryant	96	50	796	8	39
2016	Terrance Williams	61	44	594	4	62

Lamb added a new twist to the annual reports of players being in the best shape of their lives. Yesterday he said that not only has he added 10 pounds of muscle, but that he grew half an inch in height. He's a younger guy (23 years old), but that would be a little surprising.

Anyway, I like Lamb. Should be the No. 1, no question. But I don't know that I'm selecting him in the top 10 at the position. Seems like he'll be taken a little earlier than I want to, and I'll be more interested in a later selection of Gallup or maybe James Washington.

--Andy Richardson

15 Reader Comments:

Kyle Kintner

Carlsbad, CA

2022-05-26T14:15:17Z

Thanks for the analysis, Andy. What are your thoughts on Dalton Shultz? I know you discussed sleeper tight ends in another recent post, but didn’t see any mention of him. Do you feel like he will outperform his draft position? I’m thinking he could see a windfall in volume with Zeke getting older and Jarwin (two 2 TDs last year before injury) and Cooper gone. Would love to get your thoughts. Thanks!

John Macho

Elko New Mrkt, MN

2022-05-26T14:24:28Z

When I watch Lamb, I love the wiggle in his game. In other words, he's a good candidate for YAC, and making more out of every reception. I think he's going to blossom with more experience and a bigger role. Of course, the Cowboys seem to be the most hyped team every year, and fall a little short of expectations.

Robert Schule

Oakland Gardens, NY

2022-05-26T15:06:22Z

He’s been waiting to be the undisputed #1 in that offense. This is the year for him to prove it. I think it makes sense for him to be drafted as a top 10 WR. The situation is ideal and the talent is definitely there. But as John mentioned, Cowboys players often fail to live up to expectations.

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY

2022-05-26T15:17:03Z

Kyle I think we’re ranking Schultz higher than his early ADP. Either way he’s going to be one of the top 5-7 TEs drafted pretty regularly, so not really a sleeper. He was the 6th one drafted in the Experts Draft.

Drew Paterson

Ferndale, WA

2022-05-26T18:40:47Z

Lamb almost ruined my season last year, in my main league, which uses a TD-heavy scoring format. As a cautionary note, it should be pointed out that Lamb is great at attracting targets and yards, but he has not been a great scorer so far in his 2-year career. The Cowboys threw 40 TD passes last season - Lamb only caught 6 of them despite starting 16 of 17 games. He was surpassed by Cooper and Schultz (8 each), but lead the team in targets and yards. (They also don't use him much on running plays.) What really hurt me, last season, is that he only scored in 4 games and went over 100 yards in three. Thus, the rest of the time, he put up nothing in my scoring system. What's more, towards the end of the season when Jarwin and Gallup were already out, plus Cooper was chronically nicked up with knee and hamstring issues, the Cowboys seemed to focus on passing to Schultz and Ced Wilson, with Lamb playing the decoy role. Hence, in PPR and Yardage scoring systems, Lamb may look very attractive, just don't count on him to score much. (Thanks for indulging my Rant!)

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA

2022-05-26T20:09:13Z

They didn't go to him much in that part of the field. Prescott was 27 of 39 inside the 10-yard line, including 20 touchdowns and a pair of 2-point conversions. But just 2 of 5 going to Lamb in that part of the field (2 TDs). There were five other Dallas players with 3-7 targets each. So it would seem unlikely that they'll show up this year, with the same QB and same coordinator, with everything drawn up to go to Lamb in that area.

Paul Desimone

Hayward, CA

2022-05-26T23:28:54Z

Lamb's listed at 6'2", 198 (a little taller than I thought he was. That's awfully slight for an outside receiver, I think. He may just end up in the slot, more than not. Those guys don't typically get deep shots playing inside. You may be right, Drew - doesn't seem like the right tool in basic leagues.

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY

2022-05-27T00:02:30Z

Well he's 6.2 1/2, and 208 pounds (with that extra 10 all muscle) now.

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA

2022-05-27T00:37:35Z

Every time I see him play, it occurs to me how thin he is. He's listed at 198, but you would guess he's lighter when you see him. I haven't seen 208 CeeDee.

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA

2022-05-27T00:43:36Z

Through NFL.com, Lamb listed at 6-2 and 200. Four other receivers listed at 6-2 and 200: Thielen, Jakobi Meyers, Zay Jones, Terrace Marshall. I looked at pictures on internet. They don't look as skinny. It's like his torso is a little too small. Maybe he's just got his jersey reefed on tighter. Regardless, I will be looking to select him. Definitely will finish with top-10 numbers, I'm thinking.

David Kennedy

Steamburg, NY

2022-05-27T01:24:44Z

Lamb of God! Love me some Lamb this year. There seems to be a shortage of Elite WRs this year. The top 3 then a definite tier drop. I put Lamb anywhere from 4 to 10.

David Kennedy

Steamburg, NY

2022-05-27T01:28:23Z

Excuse me top 4 I forgot to include Deebo.

Cody Hager

Portland, OR

2022-05-27T02:22:45Z

Andy has the right read on this one. He laid out the historical data with Prescott at QB. On an post earlier this year, I went into detail about Lamb's weaknesses as a WR. Drops too many passes. Not a great separator. Not a refined route runner. People fall in love with what he does really well. Yards after the catch. So when I see these kind of reports about him bulking up, it just strengthens what he's already good at. I rather hear reports he's working with Jerry Rice in the off-season on his footwork or Torry Holt on the jugs machine. For Lamb to hit Top 10 numbers, he's going to need 2020 A.J. Brown level of efficiency. But for those banking CeeDee Lamb will see a large boost from the roughly 165 vacated targets from Cooper and Wilson will probably be disappointed. As Andy mentioned, Dallas/Dak doesn't run their offense like that. The more likely scenario is the targets will get distributed to other players and Lamb will finish the season as a WR2. I'm more interested in Jalen Tolbert. He'll be someone I'll be monitoring when camp opens up. I already like his ADP at Round 13 than Lamb's ADP in early Round 2.

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA

2022-05-27T14:45:23Z

As far as looking at historical data, Cowboys were a different team in 2016-18, back when the OL was good and Zeke could play. They were pounding people. In 2020, Dak missed two thirds of the season. So we're really just looking at 2019 and 2021. Those are the meaningful seasons, with Prescott at quarterback and Kellen Moore as the OC.

Robert McKinlay

Belews Creek, NC

2022-05-27T16:18:39Z

I see Lamb about wr 15-18.

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Around the NFL

CeeDee Lamb

15 Reader Comments:

Kyle Kintner

John Macho

Robert Schule

Andy Richardson

Drew Paterson

Ian Allan

Paul Desimone

Andy Richardson

Ian Allan

Ian Allan

David Kennedy

David Kennedy

Cody Hager

Ian Allan

Robert McKinlay

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