There’s a bunch of notable receivers switching teams this year: not only Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill, but also A.J. Brown and Hollywood Brown. History shows with these kind of prospects that there are way more misses than hits.
Since 2000, 49 times a wide receiver has posted top-25 PPR numbers, then moved to a new team for the next season (whether it be by trade or free agency). Only 9 of those wide receivers then finished with better numbers with their new team. Over 80 percent of these receivers in other words, therefore, got worse.
Part of this, of course, can be attributed to factors other than the player moving. You take any group of 49 receivers who all ranked in the top 25 and they will decline as a group. Some of them will get hurt, and others simply won’t be as good – it’s easier to get worse than to get better. But in general, it doesn’t tend to be a big plus to be moved to a new team.
Each case must be looked at on its own merits, of course. But for this season, I don’t love the situations for any of these four guys. Adams and Hill are both working with quarterbacks who aren’t as good as the ones they left behind. A.J. Brown is now paired with scatter-armed Jalen Hurts. With Hollywood Brown, I think he’ll catch more deep balls this year, but his overall workload will decline (he’s not catching 91 passes again).
In the chart below, the final column shows the percentage change after switching teams (using PPR scoring). For the nine players who got better, I have tagged them with black dots.
| TRANSPLANTED WIDE RECEIVERS SINCE 2000 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Teams | Old stats | New stats | Diff |
| 2001 | • Jerry Rice | S.F. to Oak. | 75-805-7 | 83-1139-9 | 27% |
| 2002 | Keenan McCardell | Jac. to T.B. | 93-1110-6 | 61-670-6 | -32% |
| 2002 | Qadry Ismail | Balt. to Ind. | 74-1059-7 | 44-462-3 | -52% |
| 2002 | Johnnie Morton | Det. to K.C. | 77-1154-4 | 29-397-1 | -60% |
| 2003 | Peerless Price | Buff. to Atl. | 94-1252-9 | 64-838-3 | -39% |
| 2003 | Laveranues Coles | NYJ to Was. | 89-1264-5 | 82-1204-6 | -4% |
| 2004 | Keenan McCardell | T.B. to S.D. | 84-1174-9 | 31-393-1 | -70% |
| 2004 | • Terrell Owens | S.F. to Phil. | 80-1102-9 | 77-1200-14 | 15% |
| 2004 | David Boston | S.D. to Mia. | 70-880-7 | 4-80-0 | -94% |
| 2004 | Justin McCareins | Ten. to NYJ | 47-813-8 | 56-770-4 | -12% |
| 2005 | Muhsin Muhammad | Car. to Chi. | 93-1405-16 | 64-750-4 | -51% |
| 2005 | Derrick Mason | Ten. to Balt. | 96-1168-7 | 86-1073-3 | -17% |
| 2005 | • Randy Moss | Min. to Oak. | 49-767-13 | 60-1005-8 | 1% |
| 2006 | Deion Branch | N.E. to Sea. | 78-998-5 | 53-725-4 | -27% |
| 2006 | Donte Stallworth | N.O. to Phil. | 70-945-7 | 38-725-5 | -32% |
| 2006 | Antonio Bryant | Cle. to S.F. | 69-1009-4 | 40-733-3 | -32% |
| 2007 | Darrell Jackson | Sea. to S.F. | 63-956-10 | 46-497-3 | -48% |
| 2008 | Bernard Berrian | Chi. to Min. | 71-951-5 | 48-964-8 | -1% |
| 2009 | Terrell Owens | Dall. to Buff. | 69-1052-10 | 55-829-6 | -25% |
| 2009 | T.J. Houshmandzadeh | Cin. to Sea. | 92-904-4 | 79-911-3 | -9% |
| 2009 | Laveranues Coles | NYJ to Cin. | 70-850-7 | 43-514-5 | -37% |
| 2010 | Brandon Marshall | Den. to Mia. | 101-1120-10 | 86-1014-3 | -26% |
| 2010 | Santonio Holmes | Pitt. to NYJ | 79-1248-5 | 52-746-6 | -30% |
| 2010 | Anquan Boldin | Ariz. to Balt. | 84-1024-5 | 64-837-7 | -13% |
| 2010 | T.J. Houshmandzadeh | Sea. to Balt. | 79-911-3 | 30-398-3 | -53% |
| 2012 | • Brandon Marshall | Mia. to Chi. | 81-1214-6 | 118-1508-11 | 40% |
| 2012 | • Vincent Jackson | S.D. to T.B. | 60-1106-9 | 72-1384-8 | 13% |
| 2012 | Laurent Robinson | Dall. to Jac. | 54-858-11 | 24-252-0 | -76% |
| 2012 | Pierre Garcon | Ind. to Was. | 70-947-6 | 44-633-5 | -32% |
| 2013 | Wes Welker | N.E. to Den. | 118-1354-6 | 73-778-10 | -28% |
| 2013 | • Mike Wallace | Pitt. to Mia. | 64-836-8 | 73-930-5 | 2% |
| 2013 | Brandon Lloyd | N.E. to S.F. | 74-911-5 | 14-294-1 | -75% |
| 2014 | Eric Decker | Den. to NYJ | 87-1288-11 | 74-962-5 | -29% |
| 2014 | DeSean Jackson | Phil. to Was. | 82-1332-9 | 56-1169-6 | -22% |
| 2015 | Jeremy Maclin | Phil. to K.C. | 85-1318-10 | 87-1088-8 | -11% |
| 2015 | Mike Wallace | Mia. to Min. | 67-862-10 | 39-473-2 | -54% |
| 2017 | Brandin Cooks | N.O. to N.E. | 78-1173-8 | 65-1082-7 | -10% |
| 2017 | Terrelle Pryor | Cle. to Was. | 77-1007-5 | 20-240-1 | -77% |
| 2017 | Pierre Garcon | Was. to S.F. | 79-1041-3 | 40-500-0 | -55% |
| 2018 | Jarvis Landry | Mia. to Cle. | 112-987-9 | 81-976-5 | -17% |
| 2018 | • Brandin Cooks | N.E. to LAR | 65-1082-7 | 80-1204-6 | 10% |
| 2018 | Dez Bryant | Dall. to Balt. | 69-838-6 | 6-47-2 | -88% |
| 2019 | Antonio Brown | Pitt. to N.E. | 104-1297-15 | 4-56-1 | -95% |
| 2019 | Odell Beckham | NYG to Cle. | 77-1052-6 | 74-1035-4 | -13% |
| 2019 | Adam Humphries | T.B. to Ten. | 76-816-5 | 37-374-2 | -54% |
| 2020 | • DeAndre Hopkins | Hou. to Ariz. | 104-1165-7 | 115-1407-6 | 8% |
| 2020 | • Stefon Diggs | Min. to Buff. | 63-1130-6 | 127-1535-8 | 51% |
| 2021 | Marvin Jones | Det. to Jac. | 76-978-9 | 73-832-4 | -21% |
| 2021 | Curtis Samuel | Car. to Was. | 77-851-5 | 6-27-0 | -95% |
| 2022 | Davante Adams | G.B. to L.V. | 123-1553-11 | ?-?-? | ? |
| 2022 | Tyreek Hill | K.C. to Mia. | 111-1239-9 | ?-?-? | ? |
| 2022 | Hollywood Brown | Balt. to Ari. | 91-1008-6 | ?-?-? | ? |
| 2022 | A.J. Brown | Ten. to Phi. | 63-869-5 | ?-?-? | ? |
(A.J. Brown, by the way, didn't finish with top-25 PPR numbers last year; I'm listing him because he's done it before -- certainly is a notable player at the position.)
—Ian Allan