A recent news item speculates that Washington might be looking at third-round running back Brian Robinson in a short-yardage or goal-line capacity. It makes some sense, and is also a reason for concern when selecting Antonio Gibson.
Gibson has 18 rushing scores his first two seasons; 21 total. But although he's averaged 39 receptions in those seasons, he's definitely going to lose most third-down work to J.D. McKissic. And if he's also losing some of the goal-line carries, his touchdowns will go down, too.
Robinson had 14 rushing touchdowns for Alabama last year, plus 2 more as a receiver. I doubt he's being considered for a short-yardage role because of that production -- pretty much any lead running back in Alabama's backfield is a mortal lock for double-digit touchdowns -- but The Athletic's Ben Standig thinks Gibson's ball security or lack thereof might be a factor.
Gibson fumbled 6 times last season, which is a number not many coaches will put up with these days. Over the last decade, only five running backs have fumbled more often in an NFL season. Data from pro-football-reference.com was used in compiling this table.
| RUNNING BACK FUMBLES, 2012-2021 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Player | Fum | Year |
| Bobby Rainey | 8 | 2015 |
| Jalen Richard | 8 | 2017 |
| Chris Carson | 7 | 2019 |
| Tarik Cohen | 7 | 2018 |
| Adrian Peterson | 7 | 2015 |
| Antonio Gibson | 6 | 2021 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 6 | 2018 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 6 | 2020 |
| Melvin Gordon | 6 | 2015 |
| Stefan Logan | 6 | 2012 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 5 | 2015 |
| Joique Bell | 5 | 2014 |
| Reggie Bush | 5 | 2013 |
| Jamaal Charles | 5 | 2012 |
| Jamaal Charles | 5 | 2014 |
| Dalvin Cook | 5 | 2020 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 5 | 2016 |
| Todd Gurley | 5 | 2017 |
| Derrick Henry | 5 | 2019 |
| Jeremy Hill | 5 | 2014 |
| Carlos Hyde | 5 | 2016 |
| Chris Ivory | 5 | 2016 |
| Fred Jackson | 5 | 2014 |
| Fred Jackson | 5 | 2012 |
| Chris Johnson | 5 | 2012 |
| David Johnson | 5 | 2016 |
| Matt Jones | 5 | 2015 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 5 | 2012 |
| Doug Martin | 5 | 2015 |
| Willis McGahee | 5 | 2012 |
| Alfred Morris | 5 | 2013 |
| DeMarco Murray | 5 | 2014 |
| Adrian Peterson | 5 | 2013 |
| Devin Singletary | 5 | 2021 |
| James Starks | 5 | 2015 |
| Ben Tate | 5 | 2013 |
Notice that another 2021 back makes this list: Devin Singletary. The Bills also selected a running back early, in second-rounder James Cook. He's being talked up for a passing downs role rather than a goal-line one (he's 5-11, 199), but Singletary's ball security can also be monitored.
As for Robinson himself, he was one of three running backs selected in the third round in April, including Rachaad White (Tampa Bay) and Tyrion Davis-Price (San Francisco). All three were selected within 7 picks of each other. None of three is stepping into an immediate starting job, but if recent form holds, probably one of them will wind up having at least some value right away.
Over the last 10 years, there have been 30 running backs selected in the third round; exactly 3 per year, just like this one. Of those backs, 5 (including Gibson, as it happens) have put up 1,000 total yards as rookies; 5 more have finished with at least 700. Ten have scored 5-plus touchdowns; four at least 11 TDs.
Just a few immediate stars, ala Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara and David Johnson, but a lot of rookie contributors, and at least one weekly starter in fantasy leagues, on average. (Table shows rookie year stats for each player, sorted by total yards.)
| 3RD-ROUND ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS, 2012-2021 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Att | Run | No | Rec | Tot | TD |
| 2017 | 86 | Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 272 | 1327 | 53 | 455 | 1782 | 11 |
| 2017 | 67 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 120 | 728 | 81 | 826 | 1554 | 14 |
| 2019 | 73 | David Montgomery, Chi. | 242 | 889 | 25 | 185 | 1074 | 7 |
| 2020 | 66 | Antonio Gibson, Wash. | 170 | 795 | 36 | 247 | 1042 | 11 |
| 2015 | 86 | David Johnson, Ariz. | 125 | 581 | 36 | 457 | 1038 | 13 |
| 2019 | 74 | Devin Singletary, Buff. | 151 | 775 | 29 | 194 | 969 | 4 |
| 2015 | 77 | Duke Johnson, Clev. | 104 | 379 | 61 | 534 | 913 | 2 |
| 2014 | 75 | Tre Mason, St.L. | 179 | 765 | 16 | 148 | 913 | 5 |
| 2015 | 95 | Matt Jones, Wash. | 144 | 490 | 19 | 304 | 794 | 4 |
| 2014 | 94 | Terrance West, Clev. | 171 | 673 | 11 | 64 | 737 | 5 |
| 2014 | 96 | Jerick McKinnon, Minn. | 113 | 538 | 27 | 135 | 673 | 0 |
| 2018 | 71 | Royce Freeman, Den. | 130 | 521 | 14 | 72 | 593 | 5 |
| 2012 | 84 | Bernard Pierce, Balt. | 108 | 532 | 7 | 47 | 579 | 1 |
| 2020 | 86 | Zack Moss, Buff. | 112 | 481 | 14 | 95 | 576 | 5 |
| 2019 | 102 | Alexander Mattison, Minn. | 100 | 462 | 10 | 82 | 544 | 1 |
| 2017 | 89 | D'Onta Foreman, Hou. | 78 | 327 | 6 | 83 | 410 | 2 |
| 2015 | 73 | Tevin Coleman, Atl. | 87 | 392 | 2 | 14 | 406 | 1 |
| 2012 | 67 | Ronnie Hillman, Den. | 85 | 330 | 10 | 62 | 392 | 1 |
| 2016 | 90 | C.J. Prosise, Sea. | 30 | 172 | 17 | 208 | 380 | 1 |
| 2014 | 69 | Charles Sims, T.B. | 66 | 185 | 19 | 190 | 375 | 1 |
| 2013 | 96 | Knile Davis, K.C. | 70 | 242 | 11 | 75 | 317 | 5 |
| 2020 | 80 | Lynn Bowden, L.V. | 9 | 32 | 28 | 211 | 243 | 0 |
| 2016 | 73 | Kenyan Drake, Mia. | 33 | 179 | 9 | 46 | 225 | 2 |
| 2021 | 88 | Trey Sermon, S.F. | 41 | 167 | 3 | 26 | 193 | 1 |
| 2019 | 70 | Darrell Henderson, LAR | 39 | 147 | 4 | 37 | 184 | 0 |
| 2017 | 105 | James Conner, Pitt. | 32 | 144 | 0 | 0 | 144 | 0 |
| 2020 | 76 | KeShawn Vaughn, T.B. | 26 | 109 | 5 | 34 | 143 | 1 |
| 2020 | 93 | Darrynton Evans, Tenn. | 14 | 54 | 2 | 27 | 81 | 1 |
| 2014 | 97 | Dri Archer, Pitt. | 10 | 40 | 7 | 23 | 63 | 0 |
| 2019 | 87 | Damien Harris, N.E. | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 |
I don't think anyone needs to rush to select Robinson early, but if you draft Gibson, it makes sense to reach a little bit for the rookie. Some chance he carves out an early, and important, role in the offense.
--Andy Richardson