There should be some progress soon on the Deshaun Watson situation, with a lengthy suspension looking certain. I’m wondering if the Browns might oddly benefit if it’s for a full season rather than for perhaps about eight games.
If Watson is shelved for the entire season, his contract would roll forward by a year. That is, he signed a five-year contract worth $230 million for the 2022-26 seasons. If he’s suspended for the full year, the contract would freeze, moving forward to the 2023-27 seasons. If Watson is suspended for about half of this season, the Browns are still paying $230 million, but they’d be getting him for only four and one half seasons.
The salary cap, if form holds, will continue to rise by about 7 percent per year, so a five-year deal worth $230 million in the future isn’t worth as much as it is right now – it doesn’t take up as much cap room.
Consider Patrick Mahomes. He signed a 10-year contract worth $450 million two years ago. That deal hasn’t aged well. Or Josh Allen; he signed a six-year deal worth $258 million last year, and he now looks underpaid.
Other quarterbacks will be getting new contracts soon, including Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson. As they sign their deals, the Watson contract will look more appealing. If teams were bidding on a player of Watson’s ability next year, he would go for more than $230 million for five years.
I’m not suggesting the Browns are hoping for a year-long suspension. If they can remain in playoff contention with Jacoby Brissett starting, they’ll definitely want Watson, with the potential he and the offense might get hot in the postseason.
But if Watson is hit with a year-long suspension, there could be a silver lining for the team, with him then becoming a better relative deal in the late years of the contract.
| NFL SALARY CAP TOTALS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Cap | Increase |
| 2000 | $62.2 | 8.5% |
| 2001 | $67.4 | 8.4% |
| 2002 | $71.1 | 5.5% |
| 2003 | $75.0 | 5.5% |
| 2004 | $80.6 | 7.4% |
| 2005 | $85.5 | 6.1% |
| 2006 | $102.0 | 19.3% |
| 2007 | $109.0 | 6.9% |
| 2008 | $116.0 | 6.4% |
| 2009 | $123.0 | 6.0% |
| 2010 | Uncapped | -- |
| 2011 | $120.4 | -- |
| 2012 | $120.6 | 0.2% |
| 2013 | $123.6 | 2.5% |
| 2014 | $133.0 | 7.6% |
| 2015 | $143.3 | 7.7% |
| 2016 | $155.3 | 8.4% |
| 2017 | $167.0 | 7.6% |
| 2018 | $177.2 | 6.1% |
| 2019 | $188.2 | 6.2% |
| 2020 | $198.2 | 5.3% |
| 2021 | $182.5 | -7.9% |
| 2022 | $208.2 | 14.1% |
—Ian Allan