The Baker Mayfield era in Cleveland is officially over. Mayfield was finally traded to Carolina yesterday, with Cleveland getting back a fifth-round pick. Additionally, Mayfield himself took a paycut and the Panthers are picking up about $5 million of his salary. One could theoretically call it a win-win-win.
Mayfield is with a team that needs a quarterback. Cleveland is saving $8.5 million and gets a fifth-round pick to use next year. And Carolina ostensibly gets an upgrade at the game's most important position. Although that's not guaranteed -- they need to get Mayfield at his best, which hasn't been the case every season.
As a rookie, Mayfield did in fact look like the Browns made the right choice at No. 1 overall. In 14 games he threw 27 touchdowns, and was solid in fantasy leagues, averaging over 22 points per game (1 point for every 10 passing and 20 rushing yards, 4-point TD passes).
But in three years since, he's been off more than on, in the NFL and fantasy. He's slipped to 19, 19 and 17 points per game, finishing as the 16th, 18th and 25th best fantasy quarterback. Not much better than the guy he's slotted to replace, Sam Darnold. Darnold in those same three seasons has finished at 19, 15 and 18 fantasy points per contest, though with him having missed more games, his next season as a top-20 fantasy quarterback will be his first. And will probably never happen.
Slap all eight campaigns together and sort by FF points per game, and the two look pretty similar. (Carolina, incidentally, says it's not planning to trade Darnold, and having picked up his pricey fifth-year option last year, they probably couldn't even if they wanted to.)
| MAYFIELD VERSUS DARNOLD, YEAR BY YEAR | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | G | Cmp | Att | Pass | TD | Int | Run | TD | PPR | Rk | FF/G |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield | 14 | 310 | 486 | 3725 | 27 | 14 | 131 | 0 | 311.4 | 17 | 22.2 |
| 2019 | Baker Mayfield | 16 | 317 | 534 | 3827 | 22 | 21 | 141 | 3 | 313.5 | 16 | 19.6 |
| 2019 | Sam Darnold | 13 | 273 | 441 | 3024 | 19 | 13 | 62 | 2 | 251.4 | 28 | 19.3 |
| 2020 | Baker Mayfield | 16 | 305 | 486 | 3563 | 26 | 8 | 165 | 1 | 308.3 | 18 | 19.3 |
| 2021 | Sam Darnold | 12 | 243 | 406 | 2527 | 9 | 13 | 222 | 5 | 216.6 | 27 | 18.0 |
| 2018 | Sam Darnold | 13 | 239 | 414 | 2865 | 17 | 15 | 138 | 1 | 231.1 | 24 | 17.8 |
| 2021 | Baker Mayfield | 14 | 253 | 418 | 3010 | 17 | 13 | 134 | 1 | 243.0 | 25 | 17.4 |
| 2020 | Sam Darnold | 12 | 217 | 364 | 2208 | 9 | 11 | 217 | 2 | 182.1 | 29 | 15.2 |
Darnold has been helped by being a more productive runner, especially around the end zone, so call this move a plus for Christian McCaffrey and/or Carolina's other running backs -- should be fewer situations where their quarterback calls his own number near the goal line. As for the pass catchers, well, that's also an upgrade, though perhaps not a seismic one. Mayfield for his career averages 235 passing yards and 1.5 TDs per game. Darnold in those same four seasons has averaged 213 passing yards and 1.1 TDs per game. Better, certainly, but probably still a modest passing game. But I think a slight bump for DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson is in order.
In any case, Mayfield has had longer stretches of looking like a solid NFL quarterback than Darnold, both as a rookie and in 2020 (when he took Cleveland to the playoffs). The newcomer shouldn't have much trouble beating out the incumbent, who had his chance, and earning the starting job for Carolina in Week 1.
Schedule-makers get a gold star for that one: the Panthers are hosting the Browns that day. Probably not a complete coincidence; perhaps an educated guess.
Final note: A year ago, Carolina traded second-, fourth- and sixth-round picks for Darnold. Two months ago, they traded a third-round pick to move up for Matt Corral. Now a fifth for Mayfield. That's a lot of picks given up considering they still have more questions than answers at the position.
--Andy Richardson