Around the NFL

July 27, 2022

Julio Jones

Aging wideout joins aged quarterback

Julio Jones signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers yesterday, and that's a move with the potential to be significant from a fantasy perspective, affecting the fortunes of a lot of different players. But there's also the potential for it to be much ado about nothing.

From 2014 to 2018, Jones had one of the greatest five-year runs by a wide receiver in the history of the league. He went over 1,400 receiving yards in each of those years, finishing 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 2nd and 1st in the NFL in that category. Only Jerry Rice, who once led the league in receiving yards five times in seven years, comes to mind as having had a stretch of that sort. It's possible we never really appreciated how great Jones' prime was.

But Jones is 33 now, and he hasn't aged as well as Rice did. He's missed seven games two years in a row, and last year he was limited even in a lot of the games he played in (he played more than half the snaps in just five games for Tennessee, which released him in March). The guess is that Tampa Bay will also limit his snaps to increase the odds of keeping him healthy, perhaps using him as a No. 3 in its offense. That's more likely than lining him up across from Mike Evans each week as a featured guy, as he was in Atlanta.

Evans shouldn't be much affected by this. Jones has never been a big scorer, catching more than 6 TDs only twice in the last nine years; double-digits just once in his career, way back in 2012. But the potential is there for it to hurt both Chris Godwin and Russell Gage. With Godwin, who tore his ACL in December, this could be a sign the team wants (or needs) to bring him back slowly, which will be easier with a healthy Jones on the roster. With Gage, who looked like the clear No. 2 until Godwin was healthy, that's now less certain. Having to vie with Jones for looks is different than Cyril Grayson, Tyler Johnson and Scotty Miller (and the early-year sleeper potential of those players is pretty much nil now).

If I'm right about the team limiting Jones in an effort to keep him healthy, Gage should still be the No. 2 (until Godwin returns), but there's less upside now. And once Godwin is healthy, it's suddenly one of the league's best foursomes (with everyone available), which will cut into the targets for a couple of them. Evans doesn't move for me, but both Godwin and Gage take a hit. (Nice boost for Tom Brady, at least.)

As for Jones himself, can he put up fantasy-relevant numbers? Recent history for 33-year-old wideouts isn't great.

Table below shows all wide receivers 33 or older who have had a top-40 season (PPR) in the last 20 years. The last guys to do it were Julian Edelman and Larry Fitzgerald in 2019; Fitzgerald has four of the seven such seasons since 2015. (A.J. Green just missed a year ago, finishing 41st.) It's increasingly rare. Of the 60 such seasons in the last 20 years, fewer than a third of them (17) are from the last decade.

TOP-40 SEASONS BY WIDEOUTS 33 OR OLDER, 2002-PRESENT
Year	Player	Age	G	Rec	Yds	TD	PPR	Rk
2019	Julian Edelman, N.E.	33	16	100	1117	6	258.8	7
2019	Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.	36	16	75	804	4	179.4	35
2018	Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.	35	16	69	734	6	186.0	26
2018	Jordy Nelson, Oak.	33	15	63	739	3	156.7	38
2017	Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.	34	16	109	1156	6	263.7	5
2016	Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.	33	16	107	1023	6	245.8	11
2016	Steve Smith Sr., Balt.	37	14	70	799	5	183.9	37
2015	Anquan Boldin, S.F.	35	14	69	789	4	171.9	40
2014	Steve Smith Sr., Balt.	35	16	79	1065	6	221.5	18
2014	Anquan Boldin, S.F.	34	16	83	1062	5	219.6	19
2014	Roddy White, Atl.	33	14	80	921	7	214.1	21
2014	Andre Johnson, Hou.	33	15	85	936	3	196.6	28
2014	Malcom Floyd, S.D.	33	16	52	856	6	173.6	40
2013	Anquan Boldin, S.F.	33	16	85	1179	7	246.0	15
2013	Steve Smith Sr., Car.	34	15	64	745	4	162.5	37
2012	Reggie Wayne, Ind.	34	16	106	1355	5	271.0	8
2012	Steve Smith Sr., Car.	33	16	73	1174	4	217.1	20
2011	Reggie Wayne, Ind.	33	16	75	960	4	195.0	25
2011	Plaxico Burress, NYJ	34	16	45	612	8	154.2	40
2010	Terrell Owens, Cin.	37	14	72	983	9	224.3	17
2010	Derrick Mason, Balt.	36	16	61	802	7	183.2	28
2010	Hines Ward, Pitt.	34	16	59	755	5	164.3	38
2009	Hines Ward, Pitt.	33	16	95	1167	6	247.7	12
2009	Derrick Mason, Balt.	35	16	73	1028	7	218.0	17
2009	Donald Driver, G.B.	34	16	70	1061	6	213.4	19
2009	Terrell Owens, Buff.	36	16	55	829	6	179.3	27
2008	Terrell Owens, Dall.	35	16	69	1052	10	237.5	11
2008	Derrick Mason, Balt.	34	16	80	1037	5	216.0	20
2008	Donald Driver, G.B.	33	16	74	1012	5	205.6	22
2008	Muhsin Muhammad, Car.	35	16	65	923	5	187.3	28
2008	Isaac Bruce, S.F.	36	16	61	835	7	186.2	31
2008	Marvin Harrison, Ind.	36	15	60	636	5	153.6	36
2007	Terrell Owens, Dall.	34	15	81	1355	15	307.0	3
2007	Bobby Engram, Sea.	34	16	94	1147	6	244.7	12
2007	Derrick Mason, Balt.	33	16	103	1087	5	241.7	14
2007	Joey Galloway, T.B.	36	15	57	1014	6	194.5	26
2006	Marvin Harrison, Ind.	34	16	95	1366	12	303.6	1
2006	Terrell Owens, Dall.	33	16	85	1180	13	283.0	2
2006	Joey Galloway, T.B.	35	16	62	1057	7	210.6	21
2006	Isaac Bruce, St.L.	34	16	74	1098	3	203.8	23
2006	Keyshawn Johnson, Car.	34	16	70	815	5	181.9	28
2006	Muhsin Muhammad, Chi.	33	16	60	863	5	176.3	30
2006	Eddie Kennison, K.C.	33	16	53	860	5	170.6	32
2005	Joey Galloway, T.B.	34	16	83	1287	10	272.1	7
2005	Marvin Harrison, Ind.	33	15	82	1146	12	268.6	9
2005	Rod Smith, Den.	35	16	85	1105	6	232.2	13
2005	Keenan McCardell, S.D.	35	16	70	917	9	216.3	17
2005	Jimmy Smith, Jac.	36	16	70	1023	6	208.3	21
2005	Keyshawn Johnson, Dall.	33	16	71	839	6	193.2	26
2004	Rod Smith, Den.	34	16	79	1144	7	238.7	15
2004	Jimmy Smith, Jac.	35	16	74	1172	6	227.2	19
2004	Johnnie Morton, K.C.	33	13	55	795	3	156.8	39
2003	Keenan McCardell, T.B.	33	16	84	1174	9	255.4	8
2003	Rod Smith, Den.	33	15	74	845	4	195.9	20
2003	Jerry Rice, Oak.	41	16	63	869	2	161.9	30
2003	Jimmy Smith, Jac.	34	12	54	805	4	158.5	33
2002	Jerry Rice, Oak.	40	16	92	1211	7	257.1	10
2002	Jimmy Smith, Jac.	33	16	80	1027	7	226.9	17
2002	Tim Brown, Oak.	36	16	81	930	2	187.9	28
2002	Ed McCaffrey, Den.	34	16	69	903	2	173.5	37

Jones has been one of the greats, but I don't think he'll put up difference-making numbers this year. Even if he can stay healthy, the Bucs will probably limit his chances, in order to give him a better chance of staying that way.

--Andy Richardson

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