Trey Lance had a nice outing for San Francisco last night. Playing two series, he completed 4 of 5 passes for 92 yards and a long touchdown. Not enough say he's going to take the league by storm this year, but a promising debut to 2022.
We'll see more of him in next week's exhibition, giving us a little more to evaluate him on. From his rookie season, there wasn't much. Lance played some the first month, but was pretty much mothballed (until a Week 17 win over Houston) after that. Understandable with Jimmy Garoppolo leading the team on a deep playoff run, but it's Lance's team now.
When first-round quarterbacks don't start most of their rookie seasons, as was the case with Lance, it's increasingly rare -- anomalous, you could say. Over the last 15 years there have been 49 quarterbacks selected in the first round. Thirty-five (nearly three-quarters) started more than half of their rookie season. Forty of them (82 percent) started at least 5 games. That includes Deshaun Watson, who failed to start half the season simply because of getting hurt.
In the table, sorted by rookie year starts, 2021's first-rounders are in bold.
FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS, ROOKIE SEASONS (2006-PRESENT) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pk | Year | Player | GS | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int |
15 | 2021 | Mac Jones, N.E. | 17 | 352 | 521 | 3801 | 22 | 13 |
1 | 2021 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 17 | 359 | 602 | 3641 | 12 | 17 |
1 | 2019 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 16 | 349 | 542 | 3722 | 20 | 12 |
2 | 2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 16 | 379 | 607 | 3782 | 16 | 14 |
1 | 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 312 | 535 | 4042 | 22 | 15 |
1 | 2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 16 | 339 | 627 | 4374 | 23 | 18 |
8 | 2012 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 16 | 282 | 484 | 3294 | 12 | 13 |
1 | 2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 310 | 517 | 4051 | 21 | 17 |
1 | 2010 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 16 | 354 | 590 | 3512 | 18 | 15 |
3 | 2008 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 16 | 265 | 434 | 3440 | 16 | 11 |
18 | 2008 | Joe Flacco, Balt. | 16 | 257 | 428 | 2971 | 14 | 12 |
6 | 2020 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 15 | 396 | 595 | 4336 | 31 | 10 |
2 | 2012 | Robert Griffin, Was. | 15 | 258 | 393 | 3200 | 20 | 5 |
22 | 2012 | Brandon Weeden, Cle. | 15 | 297 | 517 | 3385 | 14 | 17 |
5 | 2009 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 15 | 196 | 364 | 2444 | 12 | 20 |
10 | 2011 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 14 | 210 | 413 | 2214 | 12 | 11 |
2 | 2021 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | 13 | 213 | 383 | 2334 | 9 | 11 |
1 | 2018 | Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 13 | 310 | 486 | 3725 | 27 | 14 |
3 | 2018 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 13 | 239 | 414 | 2865 | 17 | 15 |
10 | 2018 | Josh Rosen, Ariz. | 13 | 217 | 393 | 2278 | 11 | 14 |
3 | 2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 13 | 280 | 475 | 2908 | 11 | 17 |
3 | 2006 | Vince Young, Ten. | 13 | 184 | 357 | 2199 | 12 | 13 |
6 | 2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 12 | 284 | 459 | 3027 | 24 | 12 |
2 | 2017 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 12 | 196 | 330 | 2193 | 7 | 7 |
2 | 2015 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 12 | 230 | 370 | 2818 | 19 | 10 |
32 | 2014 | Teddy Bridgewater, Min. | 12 | 259 | 402 | 2919 | 14 | 12 |
7 | 2018 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 11 | 169 | 320 | 2074 | 10 | 12 |
10 | 2006 | Matt Leinart, Ariz. | 11 | 214 | 377 | 2547 | 11 | 12 |
11 | 2021 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 10 | 159 | 270 | 1870 | 7 | 10 |
1 | 2020 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 10 | 264 | 404 | 2688 | 13 | 5 |
16 | 2013 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 10 | 180 | 306 | 1972 | 11 | 9 |
12 | 2011 | Christian Ponder, Min. | 10 | 158 | 291 | 1853 | 13 | 13 |
1 | 2009 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 10 | 201 | 377 | 2267 | 13 | 20 |
5 | 2020 | Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 9 | 186 | 290 | 1814 | 11 | 5 |
17 | 2009 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | 9 | 158 | 290 | 1855 | 10 | 18 |
15 | 2019 | Dwayne Haskins, Was. | 7 | 119 | 203 | 1365 | 7 | 7 |
32 | 2018 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 7 | 99 | 170 | 1201 | 6 | 3 |
1 | 2016 | Jared Goff, LAR | 7 | 112 | 205 | 1089 | 5 | 7 |
12 | 2017 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 6 | 126 | 204 | 1699 | 19 | 8 |
11 | 2006 | Jay Cutler, Den. | 5 | 81 | 137 | 1001 | 9 | 5 |
25 | 2010 | Tim Tebow, Den. | 3 | 41 | 82 | 654 | 5 | 3 |
3 | 2021 | Trey Lance, S.F. | 2 | 41 | 71 | 603 | 5 | 2 |
26 | 2016 | Paxton Lynch, Den. | 2 | 49 | 83 | 497 | 2 | 1 |
22 | 2014 | Johnny Manziel, Cle. | 2 | 18 | 35 | 175 | 0 | 2 |
10 | 2017 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 1 | 22 | 35 | 284 | 0 | 1 |
1 | 2007 | JaMarcus Russell, Oak. | 1 | 36 | 66 | 373 | 2 | 4 |
8 | 2011 | Jake Locker, Ten. | 0 | 34 | 66 | 542 | 4 | 0 |
22 | 2007 | Brady Quinn, Cle. | 0 | 3 | 8 | 45 | 0 | 0 |
26 | 2020 | Jordan Love, G.B. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Daunting company for Lance down at the bottom of this table, but at the least the hit was a big one, with Patrick Mahomes one of the game's best quarterbacks. (Had I extended the table back another year, Aaron Rodgers would have shown up down there too; he's turned out pretty well.) But six of the other seven first-rounders to start 3 or fewer games as rookies were out of the league very quickly: Tebow, Lynch, Manziel, Russell, Locker, Quinn. Green Bay giving Rodgers a multi-year deal augurs poorly for Jordan Love ever amounting to anything. Not much middle ground between star and bust from those guys the last 15-16 years. Recent history suggests Lance will either hit it big (Rodgers, Mahomes), or flop.
--Andy Richardson