As we head into the most meaningful week of the preseason, I’m sticking with Buffalo as the favorites to finish with the highest scoring offense this year. I’ve got them a notch above a half-dozen other offenses.
There are plenty of good offenses. Enough that I was unable to get the Raiders (whom I like) into the top half of the league. I’ve got them down at 17th, just below the Colts, Patriots, 49ers and Vikings.
But the Bills look like No. 1 to me. I’ve got them just ahead of a pair of up-and-coming offenses that are working with the advantage of having a franchise quarterback operating on a rookie contract – Chargers (Justin Herbert) and Bengals (Joe Burrow).
Some of the traditional powers of recent years have troubling issues to work through. Green Bay and Kansas City both traded away franchise wide receivers. Tampa Bay is replacing 60 percent of its offensive and has a 45-year-old quarterback who hasn’t practiced much. The Rams have a Super Bowl MVP with a sore elbow, while the Ravens and Cowboys both look sort on wide receivers.
My team touchdown projections appear below. And these are the same numbers that tie to the expect output numbers for the individual players (used to create the individual player projections that went out yesterday). In our system, I’ve got the teams and players tied to together.
While optimism is high in the preseason, some team has to rank below the 31 others. On my board, I’ve got the Giants, Bears and Falcons finishing with the worst offenses.
| TEAM TOUCHDOWN PROJECTIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | Pass | Run | Total |
| Buffalo | 37.4 | 17.9 | 55.3 |
| LA Chargers | 37.9 | 15.5 | 53.4 |
| Cincinnati | 36.0 | 17.0 | 53.0 |
| Green Bay | 34.5 | 16.5 | 51.0 |
| Kansas City | 35.0 | 16.0 | 51.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 35.0 | 15.5 | 50.5 |
| LA Rams | 36.4 | 12.9 | 49.3 |
| Philadelphia | 23.1 | 25.7 | 48.8 |
| Denver | 33.0 | 15.8 | 48.8 |
| Baltimore | 28.2 | 20.4 | 48.6 |
| Dallas | 34.5 | 14.1 | 48.6 |
| Arizona | 27.2 | 21.3 | 48.5 |
| Indianapolis | 27.7 | 20.6 | 48.3 |
| New England | 25.8 | 21.9 | 47.8 |
| San Francisco | 23.5 | 23.5 | 46.9 |
| Minnesota | 33.3 | 13.4 | 46.8 |
| Las Vegas | 30.6 | 14.6 | 45.2 |
| Tennessee | 21.6 | 20.9 | 42.5 |
| Miami | 26.4 | 13.9 | 40.3 |
| Detroit | 26.0 | 13.6 | 39.6 |
| Cleveland | 20.7 | 18.5 | 39.3 |
| New Orleans | 23.6 | 14.6 | 38.3 |
| Washington | 23.5 | 13.3 | 36.7 |
| Pittsburgh | 23.1 | 13.1 | 36.2 |
| Carolina | 22.6 | 13.4 | 36.0 |
| NY Jets | 22.1 | 13.4 | 35.5 |
| Houston | 23.8 | 11.2 | 35.0 |
| Seattle | 21.3 | 13.3 | 34.5 |
| Jacksonville | 23.1 | 10.7 | 33.8 |
| NY Giants | 21.3 | 12.4 | 33.7 |
| Atlanta | 18.4 | 12.9 | 31.3 |
| Chicago | 19.0 | 12.2 | 31.3 |
For passing production, I’ve got the Chargers, Bengals and Bucs at the top. That’s using 6 points for touchdown passes and 1 for every 20 passing yards. I’ve had Justin Herbert (pictured) projected to finish with the best quarterbacking numbers for the entire offseason, and I’m sticking with that for now (I’ve got him slightly ahead of Josh Allen).
I’ve got the Bears, Falcons and Browns finishing with the worst passing numbers overall.
On this one, stats are of the per-game variety.
| TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | Pass | TDP | Pts |
| LA Chargers | 290 | 2.23 | 42.4 |
| Cincinnati | 287 | 2.12 | 41.4 |
| Tampa Bay | 287 | 2.06 | 41.1 |
| Buffalo | 275 | 2.20 | 40.7 |
| Kansas City | 282 | 2.06 | 40.6 |
| LA Rams | 275 | 2.14 | 40.3 |
| Dallas | 273 | 2.03 | 39.5 |
| Las Vegas | 276 | 1.80 | 38.4 |
| Green Bay | 260 | 2.03 | 38.2 |
| Minnesota | 264 | 1.96 | 38.2 |
| Denver | 265 | 1.94 | 38.1 |
| Arizona | 265 | 1.60 | 36.1 |
| Baltimore | 244 | 1.66 | 34.4 |
| Indianapolis | 242 | 1.63 | 34.0 |
| New England | 248 | 1.52 | 33.9 |
| Miami | 242 | 1.55 | 33.5 |
| Detroit | 237 | 1.53 | 32.9 |
| San Francisco | 240 | 1.38 | 32.3 |
| Houston | 235 | 1.40 | 31.9 |
| New Orleans | 235 | 1.39 | 31.8 |
| Jacksonville | 234 | 1.36 | 31.6 |
| Philadelphia | 233 | 1.36 | 31.5 |
| Carolina | 230 | 1.33 | 31.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 228 | 1.36 | 31.0 |
| Washington | 225 | 1.38 | 30.8 |
| Tennessee | 230 | 1.27 | 30.6 |
| NY Jets | 226 | 1.30 | 30.4 |
| NY Giants | 228 | 1.25 | 30.3 |
| Seattle | 215 | 1.25 | 29.0 |
| Cleveland | 212 | 1.22 | 28.5 |
| Atlanta | 215 | 1.08 | 28.0 |
| Chicago | 212 | 1.12 | 27.9 |
For rushing production, I’ve got the Eagles, 49ers and Ravens finishing at the top. Again, these are per-game stats, and I’m assuming 6 points for each rushing touchdown and 1 for every 10 rushing yards.
I’ve got the Jaguars, Rams and Texans at the bottom.
| TEAM RUSHING PROJECTIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | Pass | TDR | Pts |
| Philadelphia | 150 | 1.51 | 24.1 |
| San Francisco | 151 | 1.38 | 23.4 |
| Baltimore | 156 | 1.20 | 22.8 |
| Tennessee | 140 | 1.23 | 21.4 |
| Indianapolis | 138 | 1.21 | 21.1 |
| New England | 130 | 1.29 | 20.7 |
| Cleveland | 140 | 1.09 | 20.5 |
| Arizona | 117 | 1.25 | 19.2 |
| Buffalo | 118 | 1.05 | 18.1 |
| Green Bay | 115 | .97 | 17.3 |
| Kansas City | 116 | .94 | 17.2 |
| Denver | 116 | .93 | 17.2 |
| New Orleans | 116 | .86 | 16.8 |
| NY Jets | 118 | .79 | 16.5 |
| Cincinnati | 104 | 1.00 | 16.4 |
| Detroit | 116 | .80 | 16.4 |
| Dallas | 114 | .83 | 16.4 |
| Carolina | 116 | .79 | 16.3 |
| Seattle | 116 | .78 | 16.3 |
| Pittsburgh | 115 | .77 | 16.1 |
| Chicago | 117 | .72 | 16.0 |
| Las Vegas | 108 | .86 | 16.0 |
| Minnesota | 112 | .79 | 15.9 |
| Miami | 110 | .82 | 15.9 |
| Washington | 112 | .78 | 15.9 |
| LA Chargers | 104 | .91 | 15.9 |
| Atlanta | 110 | .76 | 15.6 |
| NY Giants | 110 | .73 | 15.4 |
| Tampa Bay | 91 | .91 | 14.6 |
| Houston | 103 | .66 | 14.3 |
| LA Rams | 97 | .76 | 14.3 |
| Jacksonville | 103 | .63 | 14.1 |
No doubt there will be some adjustments after the games this weekend, but this is where I’ve got them at for now.
—Ian Allan