Fantasy Index

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Team projections

Offensive overview

Bills project to have most productive offense

As we head into the most meaningful week of the preseason, I’m sticking with Buffalo as the favorites to finish with the highest scoring offense this year. I’ve got them a notch above a half-dozen other offenses.

There are plenty of good offenses. Enough that I was unable to get the Raiders (whom I like) into the top half of the league. I’ve got them down at 17th, just below the Colts, Patriots, 49ers and Vikings.

But the Bills look like No. 1 to me. I’ve got them just ahead of a pair of up-and-coming offenses that are working with the advantage of having a franchise quarterback operating on a rookie contract – Chargers (Justin Herbert) and Bengals (Joe Burrow).

Some of the traditional powers of recent years have troubling issues to work through. Green Bay and Kansas City both traded away franchise wide receivers. Tampa Bay is replacing 60 percent of its offensive and has a 45-year-old quarterback who hasn’t practiced much. The Rams have a Super Bowl MVP with a sore elbow, while the Ravens and Cowboys both look sort on wide receivers.

My team touchdown projections appear below. And these are the same numbers that tie to the expect output numbers for the individual players (used to create the individual player projections that went out yesterday). In our system, I’ve got the teams and players tied to together.

While optimism is high in the preseason, some team has to rank below the 31 others. On my board, I’ve got the Giants, Bears and Falcons finishing with the worst offenses.

TEAM TOUCHDOWN PROJECTIONS
OffensePassRunTotal
Buffalo37.417.955.3
LA Chargers37.915.553.4
Cincinnati36.017.053.0
Green Bay34.516.551.0
Kansas City35.016.051.0
Tampa Bay35.015.550.5
LA Rams36.412.949.3
Philadelphia23.125.748.8
Denver33.015.848.8
Baltimore28.220.448.6
Dallas34.514.148.6
Arizona27.221.348.5
Indianapolis27.720.648.3
New England25.821.947.8
San Francisco23.523.546.9
Minnesota33.313.446.8
Las Vegas30.614.645.2
Tennessee21.620.942.5
Miami26.413.940.3
Detroit26.013.639.6
Cleveland20.718.539.3
New Orleans23.614.638.3
Washington23.513.336.7
Pittsburgh23.113.136.2
Carolina22.613.436.0
NY Jets22.113.435.5
Houston23.811.235.0
Seattle21.313.334.5
Jacksonville23.110.733.8
NY Giants21.312.433.7
Atlanta18.412.931.3
Chicago19.012.231.3

For passing production, I’ve got the Chargers, Bengals and Bucs at the top. That’s using 6 points for touchdown passes and 1 for every 20 passing yards. I’ve had Justin Herbert (pictured) projected to finish with the best quarterbacking numbers for the entire offseason, and I’m sticking with that for now (I’ve got him slightly ahead of Josh Allen).

I’ve got the Bears, Falcons and Browns finishing with the worst passing numbers overall.

On this one, stats are of the per-game variety.

TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS
OffensePassTDPPts
LA Chargers2902.2342.4
Cincinnati2872.1241.4
Tampa Bay2872.0641.1
Buffalo2752.2040.7
Kansas City2822.0640.6
LA Rams2752.1440.3
Dallas2732.0339.5
Las Vegas2761.8038.4
Green Bay2602.0338.2
Minnesota2641.9638.2
Denver2651.9438.1
Arizona2651.6036.1
Baltimore2441.6634.4
Indianapolis2421.6334.0
New England2481.5233.9
Miami2421.5533.5
Detroit2371.5332.9
San Francisco2401.3832.3
Houston2351.4031.9
New Orleans2351.3931.8
Jacksonville2341.3631.6
Philadelphia2331.3631.5
Carolina2301.3331.0
Pittsburgh2281.3631.0
Washington2251.3830.8
Tennessee2301.2730.6
NY Jets2261.3030.4
NY Giants2281.2530.3
Seattle2151.2529.0
Cleveland2121.2228.5
Atlanta2151.0828.0
Chicago2121.1227.9

For rushing production, I’ve got the Eagles, 49ers and Ravens finishing at the top. Again, these are per-game stats, and I’m assuming 6 points for each rushing touchdown and 1 for every 10 rushing yards.

I’ve got the Jaguars, Rams and Texans at the bottom.

TEAM RUSHING PROJECTIONS
OffensePassTDRPts
Philadelphia1501.5124.1
San Francisco1511.3823.4
Baltimore1561.2022.8
Tennessee1401.2321.4
Indianapolis1381.2121.1
New England1301.2920.7
Cleveland1401.0920.5
Arizona1171.2519.2
Buffalo1181.0518.1
Green Bay115.9717.3
Kansas City116.9417.2
Denver116.9317.2
New Orleans116.8616.8
NY Jets118.7916.5
Cincinnati1041.0016.4
Detroit116.8016.4
Dallas114.8316.4
Carolina116.7916.3
Seattle116.7816.3
Pittsburgh115.7716.1
Chicago117.7216.0
Las Vegas108.8616.0
Minnesota112.7915.9
Miami110.8215.9
Washington112.7815.9
LA Chargers104.9115.9
Atlanta110.7615.6
NY Giants110.7315.4
Tampa Bay91.9114.6
Houston103.6614.3
LA Rams97.7614.3
Jacksonville103.6314.1

No doubt there will be some adjustments after the games this weekend, but this is where I’ve got them at for now.

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index