Buffalo and Kansas City project to have two of the league’s best offenses, and those units look ready to come out of the gates strong. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have been on the field for four drives in the preseason, and their offenses have scored touchdowns on all of those drives.
Kansas City lost Tyreek Hill, and there’s no getting around that loss – arguably the league’s most explosive player. But other areas of that offense are stronger. The offensive line is better now than it has been. And they have more depth at wide receiver.
Perhaps most notably, they had some success late last year when they had to play differently (reacting to defenses doing a better job of not letting Hill get deep). They made some adjustments and evolved their offense. Mahomes had a five-game lull in the middle of the season, but in his final eight games (including the playoffs) his numbers were about as good as they have ever been. He averaged 314 passing yards in those final eight games, with 23 TDs versus only 4 interceptions.
Watching Mahomes lead three long scoring drives in the preseason, I’m on board with Kansas City having one of the top few offenses.
And the Bills just look ready to shred it, with Allen on top of his game and a deep group of receivers to work with.
Overall, I’ve got five offenses projected to average over 3 TDs per week – Buffalo, and Kansas City, of course, and also the Chargers, Bengals and Packers.
At the other end of the spectrum, I’ve got four teams projecting to average fewer than 2 TDs per week: Bears, Falcons, Jaguars and Giants. Those offenses, at least, look a little better than what you typically see at the bottom of the barrel. Marcus Mariota has looked reasonable in the preseason. The Bears and Jaguars have second-year quarterbacks with some upside. And the Giants have a better offensive line and more innovative coaching staff.
On the numbers you see below, they’re the projected team totals for 17-game regular season. These numbers are tied to the individual player projections that will be updated later today.
| PROJECTED OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pass | Run | Total |
| Buffalo | 38.1 | 18.2 | 56.3 |
| Kansas City | 38.4 | 16.2 | 54.6 |
| LA Chargers | 37.9 | 15.5 | 53.4 |
| Cincinnati | 35.5 | 16.5 | 52.0 |
| Green Bay | 34.9 | 16.7 | 51.5 |
| Tampa Bay | 35.0 | 15.5 | 50.5 |
| LA Rams | 36.9 | 13.1 | 50.0 |
| Baltimore | 28.4 | 20.6 | 49.0 |
| Denver | 33.0 | 15.8 | 48.8 |
| Philadelphia | 22.6 | 26.2 | 48.8 |
| Arizona | 27.2 | 21.3 | 48.5 |
| Indianapolis | 27.7 | 20.6 | 48.3 |
| San Francisco | 23.8 | 23.3 | 47.1 |
| Dallas | 33.2 | 13.6 | 46.8 |
| Minnesota | 33.3 | 13.4 | 46.8 |
| New England | 25.2 | 21.1 | 46.2 |
| Las Vegas | 30.8 | 14.6 | 45.4 |
| Tennessee | 21.9 | 20.7 | 42.7 |
| Miami | 26.4 | 13.6 | 40.0 |
| Detroit | 25.7 | 13.6 | 39.3 |
| Cleveland | 20.6 | 18.2 | 38.8 |
| New Orleans | 23.8 | 14.5 | 38.3 |
| Washington | 23.6 | 13.4 | 37.1 |
| Pittsburgh | 23.6 | 13.1 | 36.7 |
| Carolina | 22.8 | 13.3 | 36.0 |
| Houston | 23.3 | 11.7 | 35.0 |
| NY Jets | 22.1 | 12.9 | 35.0 |
| Seattle | 21.3 | 13.3 | 34.5 |
| NY Giants | 21.3 | 12.2 | 33.5 |
| Jacksonville | 23.0 | 10.4 | 33.3 |
| Atlanta | 19.6 | 12.9 | 32.5 |
| Chicago | 19.0 | 12.4 | 31.5 |
If we’re looking at just passing production, I’ve got the Chargers, Bills, Bengals, Bucs and the two Los Angeles teams in the top half-dozen. The bottom half-dozen includes the Bears, Browns, Falcons, Seahawks and the two New York teams.
For the numbers here, you’re looking at passing yards per game, touchdown passes per game, and fantasy points (using 6 for TD passes and 1 for every 10 yards).
| PROJECTED PASSING PRODUCTION | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TDP | Pt/G |
| LA Chargers | 290 | 2.23 | 42.4 |
| Kansas City | 288 | 2.26 | 42.4 |
| Buffalo | 277 | 2.24 | 41.1 |
| Cincinnati | 285 | 2.09 | 41.0 |
| LA Rams | 280 | 2.17 | 41.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 285 | 2.06 | 40.9 |
| Green Bay | 263 | 2.05 | 38.6 |
| Dallas | 268 | 1.95 | 38.5 |
| Las Vegas | 275 | 1.81 | 38.4 |
| Minnesota | 265 | 1.96 | 38.3 |
| Denver | 265 | 1.94 | 38.1 |
| Arizona | 265 | 1.60 | 36.1 |
| Baltimore | 245 | 1.67 | 34.5 |
| Indianapolis | 242 | 1.63 | 34.0 |
| New England | 250 | 1.48 | 33.9 |
| Miami | 240 | 1.55 | 33.3 |
| San Francisco | 242 | 1.40 | 32.6 |
| Detroit | 235 | 1.51 | 32.6 |
| New Orleans | 235 | 1.40 | 31.9 |
| Houston | 235 | 1.37 | 31.7 |
| Jacksonville | 235 | 1.35 | 31.6 |
| Pittsburgh | 232 | 1.39 | 31.5 |
| Washington | 228 | 1.39 | 31.1 |
| Carolina | 230 | 1.34 | 31.0 |
| Philadelphia | 230 | 1.33 | 31.0 |
| Tennessee | 232 | 1.29 | 30.9 |
| NY Giants | 228 | 1.25 | 30.3 |
| NY Jets | 225 | 1.30 | 30.3 |
| Seattle | 215 | 1.25 | 29.0 |
| Atlanta | 215 | 1.15 | 28.4 |
| Cleveland | 210 | 1.21 | 28.3 |
| Chicago | 212 | 1.12 | 27.9 |
For rushing production, I’ve got three teams with mobile quarterbacks at the top: Eagles (Jalen Hurts), 49ers (Trey Lance) and Ravens (Lamar Jackson), followed by three who have big, talented featured backs: Titans (Derrick Henry), Colts (Jonathan Taylor) and Browns (Nick Chubb).
At the bottom, I’ve got the Jaguars, Rams, Texans and Bucs. All of those teams still have running back prospects of some note (Leonard Fournette and Travis Etienne should catch a healthy number of passes, while Dameon Pierce looks like he’s going to be the best of the rookie running backs).
The following chart uses per-game numbers, with 6 points for rushing touchdowns and 1 for every 10 rushing yards.
| PROJECTED RUSHING PRODUCTION | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TDR | Pt/G |
| Philadelphia | 155 | 1.54 | 24.7 |
| San Francisco | 150 | 1.37 | 23.2 |
| Baltimore | 151 | 1.21 | 22.4 |
| Tennessee | 137 | 1.22 | 21.0 |
| Indianapolis | 136 | 1.21 | 20.9 |
| Cleveland | 140 | 1.07 | 20.4 |
| New England | 128 | 1.24 | 20.2 |
| Arizona | 117 | 1.25 | 19.2 |
| Buffalo | 122 | 1.07 | 18.6 |
| Green Bay | 116 | .98 | 17.5 |
| Kansas City | 117 | .95 | 17.4 |
| Denver | 116 | .93 | 17.2 |
| New Orleans | 116 | .85 | 16.7 |
| Seattle | 116 | .78 | 16.3 |
| Detroit | 114 | .80 | 16.2 |
| Cincinnati | 103 | .97 | 16.1 |
| Carolina | 114 | .78 | 16.1 |
| Chicago | 117 | .73 | 16.1 |
| Pittsburgh | 114 | .77 | 16.0 |
| LA Chargers | 105 | .91 | 16.0 |
| Las Vegas | 108 | .86 | 16.0 |
| NY Jets | 114 | .76 | 16.0 |
| Minnesota | 112 | .79 | 15.9 |
| Washington | 112 | .79 | 15.9 |
| Dallas | 111 | .80 | 15.9 |
| Miami | 108 | .80 | 15.6 |
| Atlanta | 109 | .76 | 15.5 |
| NY Giants | 110 | .72 | 15.3 |
| Tampa Bay | 91 | .91 | 14.6 |
| Houston | 102 | .69 | 14.3 |
| LA Rams | 97 | .77 | 14.3 |
| Jacksonville | 105 | .61 | 14.2 |
—Ian Allan