The first full week of the preseason will begin in a few hours, so it’s a good time to check in on expectations for the 32 offenses. That is, the team-by-team projections for each team, in terms of touchdowns and yards.

As things stand now, I’ve got the Bills finishing with about 54 touchdowns. That’s just ahead of the Chargers and Bengals, with three other offenses averaging at least 3 touchdowns per game – Green Bay, Kansas City and Tampa Bay.

Somebody’s got to finish in last, and I’ve got the Falcons down in that spot, with two other offenses averaging fewer than 2 TDs per week (Giants, Bears).

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS
TeamPassRunTotal
Buffalo36.917.354.2
LA Chargers38.115.653.7
Cincinnati36.217.253.4
Green Bay34.516.751.2
Kansas City35.016.051.0
Tampa Bay35.715.351.0
Dallas34.814.549.2
Denver33.216.049.1
Indianapolis28.420.749.1
Arizona27.521.449.0
LA Rams36.212.849.0
New England26.422.649.0
Philadelphia22.825.848.6
Baltimore28.120.648.6
Minnesota33.313.446.8
San Francisco23.123.646.8
Las Vegas30.614.545.1
Tennessee21.821.343.0
Cleveland21.419.040.5
Miami26.414.140.5
Detroit26.013.639.6
New Orleans24.014.938.8
Washington23.513.336.7
NY Jets22.113.635.7
Carolina22.313.335.6
Pittsburgh22.313.135.4
Seattle21.113.334.3
Houston23.810.234.0
Jacksonville23.310.734.0
NY Giants21.312.633.8
Chicago19.012.431.5
Atlanta18.012.230.3

For passing production, I’ve got the Chargers, Bucs and Bengals up in the top 3 spots, followed by three others that should come as no surprise: Kansas City, Buffalo and the Rams.

The Falcons and Bears were the bottom two teams in projected scoring, and I’ve also got them at the bottom in terms of overall passing production, just below the Seahawks and Browns. (With Browns, the projection is only slightly above what it will be if Jacoby Brissett starts all 17 games – maybe they get a few starts out of Deshaun Watson, or maybe they wind up with Jimmy Garoppolo, who would be a slight upgrade.)

Offenses here are ordered using 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 passing yards.

PROJECTED PASSING PRODUCTION
TeamYardsTDPPoints
LA Chargers2902.2442.4
Tampa Bay2902.1041.6
Cincinnati2872.1341.5
Kansas City2822.0640.6
Buffalo2722.1740.2
LA Rams2722.1340.0
Dallas2732.0539.6
Las Vegas2761.8038.4
Denver2651.9538.2
Green Bay2602.0338.2
Minnesota2641.9638.2
Arizona2651.6236.2
Indianapolis2431.6734.3
Baltimore2431.6534.2
New England2481.5534.1
Miami2421.5533.5
Detroit2351.5332.7
San Francisco2401.3632.2
New Orleans2351.4132.0
Houston2351.4031.9
Jacksonville2341.3731.6
Philadelphia2321.3431.2
Washington2251.3830.8
Tennessee2301.2830.7
Carolina2281.3130.7
Pittsburgh2251.3130.4
NY Giants2281.2530.3
NY Jets2231.3030.1
Seattle2181.2429.2
Cleveland2131.2628.9
Chicago2121.1227.9
Atlanta2081.0627.2

For rushing production, I’ve got three teams with running quarterbacks at the top: Eagles, 49ers, Ravens, followed by two teams with big, overpowering backs: Titans, Colts. I’ve got the Texans, Jaguars and Rams down at the bottom.

PROJECTED RUSHING PRODUCTION
TeamYardsTDRPoints
Philadelphia1501.5224.1
San Francisco1531.3923.6
Baltimore1561.2122.9
Tennessee1401.2521.5
Indianapolis1381.2221.1
New England1291.3320.9
Cleveland1401.1220.7
Arizona1171.2619.3
Buffalo1181.0217.9
Green Bay115.9817.4
Denver116.9417.2
Kansas City116.9417.2
New Orleans116.8816.9
Dallas114.8516.5
NY Jets117.8016.5
Cincinnati1041.0116.5
Carolina117.7816.4
Detroit116.8016.4
Seattle116.7816.3
Miami110.8316.0
Minnesota112.7915.9
Las Vegas108.8615.9
LA Chargers104.9215.9
Chicago115.7315.9
Washington112.7815.9
Pittsburgh112.7715.8
NY Giants110.7415.4
Atlanta103.7214.6
Tampa Bay92.9014.6
LA Rams97.7514.2
Jacksonville100.6313.8
Houston96.6013.2

This afternoon, the latest version of our Cheat Sheet drops, with player projections for all of the notable players. Those rankings are tied to the team projections you see here. In our grading system, the teams and players are tied together. If we project a team to average 120 yards, those yards have to match up with the players from that roster. And a player’s ranking is ultimately decided by taking his expected per game production, then multiplying it by his expected number of games.

—Ian Allan