The first full week of the preseason will begin in a few hours, so it’s a good time to check in on expectations for the 32 offenses. That is, the team-by-team projections for each team, in terms of touchdowns and yards.
As things stand now, I’ve got the Bills finishing with about 54 touchdowns. That’s just ahead of the Chargers and Bengals, with three other offenses averaging at least 3 touchdowns per game – Green Bay, Kansas City and Tampa Bay.
Somebody’s got to finish in last, and I’ve got the Falcons down in that spot, with two other offenses averaging fewer than 2 TDs per week (Giants, Bears).
PROJECTED OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Pass | Run | Total |
Buffalo | 36.9 | 17.3 | 54.2 |
LA Chargers | 38.1 | 15.6 | 53.7 |
Cincinnati | 36.2 | 17.2 | 53.4 |
Green Bay | 34.5 | 16.7 | 51.2 |
Kansas City | 35.0 | 16.0 | 51.0 |
Tampa Bay | 35.7 | 15.3 | 51.0 |
Dallas | 34.8 | 14.5 | 49.2 |
Denver | 33.2 | 16.0 | 49.1 |
Indianapolis | 28.4 | 20.7 | 49.1 |
Arizona | 27.5 | 21.4 | 49.0 |
LA Rams | 36.2 | 12.8 | 49.0 |
New England | 26.4 | 22.6 | 49.0 |
Philadelphia | 22.8 | 25.8 | 48.6 |
Baltimore | 28.1 | 20.6 | 48.6 |
Minnesota | 33.3 | 13.4 | 46.8 |
San Francisco | 23.1 | 23.6 | 46.8 |
Las Vegas | 30.6 | 14.5 | 45.1 |
Tennessee | 21.8 | 21.3 | 43.0 |
Cleveland | 21.4 | 19.0 | 40.5 |
Miami | 26.4 | 14.1 | 40.5 |
Detroit | 26.0 | 13.6 | 39.6 |
New Orleans | 24.0 | 14.9 | 38.8 |
Washington | 23.5 | 13.3 | 36.7 |
NY Jets | 22.1 | 13.6 | 35.7 |
Carolina | 22.3 | 13.3 | 35.6 |
Pittsburgh | 22.3 | 13.1 | 35.4 |
Seattle | 21.1 | 13.3 | 34.3 |
Houston | 23.8 | 10.2 | 34.0 |
Jacksonville | 23.3 | 10.7 | 34.0 |
NY Giants | 21.3 | 12.6 | 33.8 |
Chicago | 19.0 | 12.4 | 31.5 |
Atlanta | 18.0 | 12.2 | 30.3 |
For passing production, I’ve got the Chargers, Bucs and Bengals up in the top 3 spots, followed by three others that should come as no surprise: Kansas City, Buffalo and the Rams.
The Falcons and Bears were the bottom two teams in projected scoring, and I’ve also got them at the bottom in terms of overall passing production, just below the Seahawks and Browns. (With Browns, the projection is only slightly above what it will be if Jacoby Brissett starts all 17 games – maybe they get a few starts out of Deshaun Watson, or maybe they wind up with Jimmy Garoppolo, who would be a slight upgrade.)
Offenses here are ordered using 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 passing yards.
PROJECTED PASSING PRODUCTION | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDP | Points |
LA Chargers | 290 | 2.24 | 42.4 |
Tampa Bay | 290 | 2.10 | 41.6 |
Cincinnati | 287 | 2.13 | 41.5 |
Kansas City | 282 | 2.06 | 40.6 |
Buffalo | 272 | 2.17 | 40.2 |
LA Rams | 272 | 2.13 | 40.0 |
Dallas | 273 | 2.05 | 39.6 |
Las Vegas | 276 | 1.80 | 38.4 |
Denver | 265 | 1.95 | 38.2 |
Green Bay | 260 | 2.03 | 38.2 |
Minnesota | 264 | 1.96 | 38.2 |
Arizona | 265 | 1.62 | 36.2 |
Indianapolis | 243 | 1.67 | 34.3 |
Baltimore | 243 | 1.65 | 34.2 |
New England | 248 | 1.55 | 34.1 |
Miami | 242 | 1.55 | 33.5 |
Detroit | 235 | 1.53 | 32.7 |
San Francisco | 240 | 1.36 | 32.2 |
New Orleans | 235 | 1.41 | 32.0 |
Houston | 235 | 1.40 | 31.9 |
Jacksonville | 234 | 1.37 | 31.6 |
Philadelphia | 232 | 1.34 | 31.2 |
Washington | 225 | 1.38 | 30.8 |
Tennessee | 230 | 1.28 | 30.7 |
Carolina | 228 | 1.31 | 30.7 |
Pittsburgh | 225 | 1.31 | 30.4 |
NY Giants | 228 | 1.25 | 30.3 |
NY Jets | 223 | 1.30 | 30.1 |
Seattle | 218 | 1.24 | 29.2 |
Cleveland | 213 | 1.26 | 28.9 |
Chicago | 212 | 1.12 | 27.9 |
Atlanta | 208 | 1.06 | 27.2 |
For rushing production, I’ve got three teams with running quarterbacks at the top: Eagles, 49ers, Ravens, followed by two teams with big, overpowering backs: Titans, Colts. I’ve got the Texans, Jaguars and Rams down at the bottom.
PROJECTED RUSHING PRODUCTION | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDR | Points |
Philadelphia | 150 | 1.52 | 24.1 |
San Francisco | 153 | 1.39 | 23.6 |
Baltimore | 156 | 1.21 | 22.9 |
Tennessee | 140 | 1.25 | 21.5 |
Indianapolis | 138 | 1.22 | 21.1 |
New England | 129 | 1.33 | 20.9 |
Cleveland | 140 | 1.12 | 20.7 |
Arizona | 117 | 1.26 | 19.3 |
Buffalo | 118 | 1.02 | 17.9 |
Green Bay | 115 | .98 | 17.4 |
Denver | 116 | .94 | 17.2 |
Kansas City | 116 | .94 | 17.2 |
New Orleans | 116 | .88 | 16.9 |
Dallas | 114 | .85 | 16.5 |
NY Jets | 117 | .80 | 16.5 |
Cincinnati | 104 | 1.01 | 16.5 |
Carolina | 117 | .78 | 16.4 |
Detroit | 116 | .80 | 16.4 |
Seattle | 116 | .78 | 16.3 |
Miami | 110 | .83 | 16.0 |
Minnesota | 112 | .79 | 15.9 |
Las Vegas | 108 | .86 | 15.9 |
LA Chargers | 104 | .92 | 15.9 |
Chicago | 115 | .73 | 15.9 |
Washington | 112 | .78 | 15.9 |
Pittsburgh | 112 | .77 | 15.8 |
NY Giants | 110 | .74 | 15.4 |
Atlanta | 103 | .72 | 14.6 |
Tampa Bay | 92 | .90 | 14.6 |
LA Rams | 97 | .75 | 14.2 |
Jacksonville | 100 | .63 | 13.8 |
Houston | 96 | .60 | 13.2 |
This afternoon, the latest version of our Cheat Sheet drops, with player projections for all of the notable players. Those rankings are tied to the team projections you see here. In our grading system, the teams and players are tied together. If we project a team to average 120 yards, those yards have to match up with the players from that roster. And a player’s ranking is ultimately decided by taking his expected per game production, then multiplying it by his expected number of games.
—Ian Allan