Marcus Mariota has looked good in both of his preseason appearances. I’m starting to think it’s time to consider whether he might be surprisingly decent as a second quarterback (in a typical 12-team fantasy league).
Mariota at Detroit completed both of his passes while also showing a willingness to take off and gain yards with his legs – 3 carries for 23 yards. Rushing production, of course, tends to be richly rewarded in most fantasy formats.
And Mariota was good again last year against the Jets, leading scoring drives on two of his three possessions. He threw a 52-yard completion to Kyle Pitts, and he zipped in a nice touchdown throw against tight coverage to Olamide Zaccheaus.
For the preseason, Mariota has completed 8 of 12 passes for 168 yards, with a touchdown and no turnovers. While that’s a small sample size or work against mostly backups, it generates a passer rating of 137.5.
I’m not saying Mariota is going to be a surprise top-15 quarterback. The Falcons might be the worst team in the league. But I think it’s fair to wonder if Mariota can outproduce some of the other quarterbacks typically being drafted as lesser second quarterbacks – Tua Tagovailoa, Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield, Justin Fields and the like.
Just for fun, I pulled up the passing stats for the last five preseasons. There have been 47 other quarterbacks (10 att min) who’ve finished with passer ratings over 100 and then gone on to start at least half the season. The preseason production hasn’t tended to point towards regular season success.
Of those other 47, 17 finished with top-10 per game numbers (standard scoring), but 15 finished in the bottom 10. The other 15 finished in the middle.
On the chart below, players in bold are those with a decent chance of starting over half of this season.
Mariota himself has put up good preseason numbers in the past. He was a middle-of-the-pack quarterback in 2016, but he struggled mightily in 2018.
| GOOD IN THE PRESEASON (regular-season numbers) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rating | St | Pass | Run | TD | Pts/G | Rk |
| 2021 | • Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 158.3 | 16 | 233.8 | .3 | 1.44 | 17.6 | 23 |
| 2017 | Philip Rivers, LAC | 155.2 | 16 | 282.2 | -.1 | 1.75 | 21.1 | 9 |
| 2018 | • Joe Flacco, Balt. | 141.4 | 9 | 273.9 | 5.0 | 1.33 | 19.5 | 23 |
| 2022 | Kenny Pickett, Pitt. | 138.6 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2017 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 138.4 | 16 | 207.8 | 22.3 | 1.75 | 20.4 | 12 |
| 2016 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 137.8 | 16 | 229.2 | 17.6 | 1.81 | 21.2 | 17 |
| 2021 | • Zach Wilson, NYJ | 137.7 | 13 | 179.5 | 14.2 | 1.00 | 15.2 | 31 |
| 2022 | Marcus Mariota, Atl. | 137.5 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 137.3 | 12 | 250.8 | 22.8 | 2.17 | 24.2 | 8 |
| 2017 | Josh McCown, NYJ | 137.2 | 13 | 225.1 | 9.5 | 1.77 | 20.1 | 14 |
| 2016 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 136.4 | 14 | 272.8 | 1.0 | 2.14 | 22.9 | 7 |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 133.8 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2021 | • Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 132.5 | 14 | 215.0 | 9.6 | 1.29 | 17.0 | 28 |
| 2022 | Drew Lock, Sea. | 131.1 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2018 | Andy Dalton, Cin. | 130.9 | 11 | 233.3 | 9.0 | 1.91 | 20.2 | 21 |
| 2017 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 130.8 | 16 | 248.9 | 36.6 | 2.31 | 26.0 | 1 |
| 2021 | • Teddy Bridgewater, Den. | 130.0 | 14 | 218.0 | 7.6 | 1.43 | 17.7 | 24 |
| 2017 | Derek Carr, Oak. | 128.8 | 15 | 233.1 | 4.4 | 1.47 | 18.2 | 20 |
| 2017 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 128.6 | 16 | 286.1 | 1.8 | 2.00 | 22.7 | 5 |
| 2018 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 128.2 | 16 | 242.8 | 19.1 | 1.75 | 22.0 | 16 |
| 2021 | Tom Brady, T.B. | 127.9 | 17 | 312.7 | 4.8 | 2.65 | 26.9 | 3 |
| 2018 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 126.9 | 9 | 294.2 | 28.7 | 1.89 | 25.4 | 4 |
| 2019 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 125.5 | 14 | 287.9 | 15.6 | 2.00 | 24.4 | 7 |
| 2017 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 125.2 | 13 | 253.5 | 23.0 | 2.54 | 25.7 | 2 |
| 2021 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 122.9 | 17 | 259.2 | 44.9 | 2.47 | 28.3 | 1 |
| 2019 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 122.9 | 16 | 306.4 | 17.3 | 2.06 | 25.8 | 6 |
| 2019 | • Sam Darnold, NYJ | 120.6 | 13 | 232.6 | 4.8 | 1.62 | 19.3 | 26 |
| 2019 | Ryan Tannehill, Ten. | 119.7 | 10 | 259.8 | 18.1 | 2.60 | 26.2 | 3 |
| 2021 | Sam Darnold, Car. | 116.0 | 11 | 212.5 | 19.2 | 1.27 | 18.5 | 18 |
| 2019 | • Jacoby Brissett, Ind. | 113.5 | 15 | 196.1 | 15.2 | 1.47 | 17.9 | 28 |
| 2019 | • Mason Rudolph, Pitt. | 113.3 | 8 | 190.5 | 4.4 | 1.25 | 15.0 | 30 |
| 2017 | • Jay Cutler, Mia. | 111.9 | 14 | 190.4 | 2.3 | 1.36 | 15.2 | 27 |
| 2016 | • Case Keenum, L.A. | 111.1 | 9 | 241.0 | 5.7 | 1.11 | 17.3 | 28 |
| 2016 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 110.2 | 16 | 244.1 | 22.4 | 1.69 | 21.9 | 9 |
| 2017 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 110.0 | 15 | 215.5 | 20.8 | 1.20 | 18.3 | 19 |
| 2016 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 108.5 | 16 | 255.6 | 10.3 | 1.81 | 21.6 | 12 |
| 2022 | Mitchell Trubisky, Pitt. | 108.5 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2016 | Andy Dalton, Cin. | 107.5 | 16 | 262.9 | 11.5 | 1.38 | 20.3 | 20 |
| 2016 | Kirk Cousins, Was. | 107.3 | 16 | 307.3 | 6.0 | 1.81 | 23.7 | 6 |
| 2021 | • Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 106.5 | 17 | 214.2 | 19.6 | .82 | 16.2 | 29 |
| 2016 | Tyrod Taylor, Buff. | 106.2 | 15 | 201.5 | 38.7 | 1.53 | 21.1 | 18 |
| 2017 | • Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 106.2 | 12 | 182.8 | 20.7 | .75 | 14.7 | 29 |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 105.5 | 15 | 208.5 | 80.4 | 2.87 | 30.9 | 1 |
| 2018 | • Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 105.1 | 13 | 186.8 | 23.5 | 1.00 | 16.0 | 31 |
| 2016 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 104.1 | 15 | 228.4 | 23.3 | 1.87 | 21.5 | 14 |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 103.5 | 16 | 318.6 | 17.0 | 3.25 | 31.0 | 1 |
| 2017 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 103.3 | 16 | 277.9 | 6.1 | 1.81 | 22.0 | 8 |
| 2017 | • Jacoby Brissett, Ind. | 103.2 | 15 | 203.1 | 17.3 | 1.13 | 17.0 | 25 |
| 2016 | • Sam Bradford, Min. | 102.6 | 15 | 258.5 | 3.5 | 1.33 | 18.6 | 25 |
| 2019 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 102.3 | 8 | 312.4 | 8.3 | 2.38 | 25.9 | 4 |
| 2017 | Case Keenum, Min. | 101.9 | 14 | 243.4 | 9.9 | 1.57 | 19.7 | 16 |
| 2018 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 101.9 | 16 | 272.2 | 2.2 | 1.94 | 21.8 | 19 |
—Ian Allan