What (if anything) should we be making of the preseason? When a running back rips it up in August, is that an indication he’s going to be good in the real games? And when a running back struggles, is that an early indication that he’s doomed to be a failed draft pick?
Specifically, we have Breece Hall and Dameon Pierce. A month ago, Hall was everyone’s favorite rookie running back. He was great at Iowa State, the measurables are awesome, and he’s playing for a team with an improving offensive line. Pierce, on the other hands, was lightly used at Florida and lasted until the fourth round of the draft.
But in the preseason games, Pierce was a lot better than Hall. Hall carried 14 times for only 29 yards. His one good play came yesterday, when he got some space – he put a nice move on the first defender, going right by him to pick up 11 yards. Nobody is doubting Hall’s speed, and he’s thickly built below the waist, looking like the kind of guy you don’t want to tackle.
Pierce, on the other hand, just looks really good. He gained 49 yards on 5 carries in his first game, which included him going right by a tackle in a way similar to Hall yesterday. He followed that up with 36 yards and a touchdown against the 49ers, and he’s been breaking tackles all along, consistently knocking people backwards. He’s a good-looking power back to me.
If we’re drafting today, I’m taking Pierce before any other rookie. I think he’s for real. But I will concede that there’s a chance that Hall at some point will get things dialed in and become a better back – definitely in the long-term and perhaps even this year.
All of which has me thinking a look at some previous preseasons is in order – making sense of how preseason success has tended to translate in the past.
Below see the list of all rookie running backs who’ve finished with top-20 numbers since 2000 (using PPR scoring). You’ve got the players, and then I’ve listed their preseason stats (both rushing and receiving).
Only seven of these running backs (like Hall) averaged fewer than 3 yards per carry in the preseason. I’ve got them flagged with black dots. But some parsing is necessary with those guys. LeVeon Bell got hurt in his first preseason game, never really getting the chance to get going. And LaDainian Tomlinson was a lengthy holdout. Eddie Lacy carried only 18 times for 36 yards in his first preseason, but I remember seeing him breaking tackles in a game at St. Louis and thinking he was going to be a big-time player – he averaged only 2.0 yards per attempt in the preseason but was still rising on my board.
Only three backs averaged even more yards per carry than Pierce. That includes Saquon Barkley, but he had only 4 carries in his preseason. Alvin Kamara looked awfully strong for the Saints, with a 50-yard touchdown at San Diego and some other plays. I wished I had ranked him higher that year, but the Saints also had Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram. And from 2010 came Jahvid Best (15 carries, 129 yards), a good player who had problems with concussions.
| TOP-20 ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS (preseason stats) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rush | Rec |
| 2000 | Mike Anderson, Den. | 21-88-2 | 0-0-0 |
| 2000 | • Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 4-9-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2001 | Dominic Rhodes, Ind. | 36-143-1 | 8-90-0 |
| 2001 | Anthony Thomas, Chi. | 10-30-0 | 3-11-0 |
| 2001 | • LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 5-14-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2002 | Clinton Portis, Den. | 48-224-2 | 0-0-0 |
| 2003 | • Domanick Williams, Hou. | 2-1-0 | 3-20-0 |
| 2006 | Reggie Bush, N.O. | 19-102-0 | 10-39-0 |
| 2006 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 28-130-0 | 4-72-1 |
| 2006 | • Joseph Addai, Ind. | 21-32-1 | 3-28-0 |
| 2007 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 30-146-1 | 1-2-0 |
| 2007 | • Marshawn Lynch, Buff. | 22-37-0 | 2-17-0 |
| 2008 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 33-182-2 | 7-82-0 |
| 2008 | Steve Slaton, Hou. | 34-138-1 | 2-4-0 |
| 2008 | Kevin Smith, Det. | 22-86-1 | 0-0-0 |
| 2008 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 27-94-0 | 6-41-0 |
| 2009 | Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 3-18-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2010 | Jahvid Best, Det. | 15-129-0 | 4-29-0 |
| 2012 | Alfred Morris, Was. | 39-195-1 | 1-6-0 |
| 2012 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 27-97-2 | 4-19-0 |
| 2012 | Trent Richardson, Cle. | DNP | DNP |
| 2013 | Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 27-116-3 | 7-71-0 |
| 2013 | • LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 4-9-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2013 | • Eddie Lacy, G.B. | 18-36-0 | 1-11-0 |
| 2014 | Jeremy Hill, Cin. | 41-190-0 | 10-93-0 |
| 2015 | David Johnson, Ariz. | 17-64-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2015 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | DNP | DNP |
| 2016 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 7-48-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2016 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 36-173-1 | 0-0-0 |
| 2017 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 9-96-1 | 1-22-0 |
| 2017 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 17-87-1 | 3-51-0 |
| 2017 | Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 18-79-0 | 4-32-0 |
| 2017 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 9-31-1 | 0-0-0 |
| 2018 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 4-43-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2018 | Phillip Lindsay, Den. | 13-70-0 | 4-58-1 |
| 2018 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 45-140-2 | 3-12-0 |
| 2019 | Miles Sanders, Phil. | 8-34-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2020 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | DNP | DNP |
| 2020 | James Robinson, Jac. | DNP | DNP |
| 2020 | Antonio Gibson, Was. | DNP | DNP |
| 2020 | D'Andre Swift, Det. | DNP | DNP |
| 2021 | Javonte Williams, Den. | 12-49-0 | 1-5-0 |
| 2021 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 13-42-0 | 4-65-0 |
| 2022 | Dameon Pierce, Hou. | 11-86-1 | 0-0-0 |
| 2022 | James Cook, Buff. | 10-56-0 | 3-17-0 |
| 2022 | Ken Walker, Sea. | 5-19-0 | 1-11-0 |
| 2022 | • Breece Hall, NYJ | 14-29-0 | 0-0-0 |
—Ian Allan