So far, so good for Kenny Pickett. He’s been ripping it up pretty good, looking like he’ll be moving past Mitchell Trubisky and Mason Rudolph sooner rather than later. He’s been successfully operating Pittsburgh’s offense.
Pickett was good in his opener against the Seahawks, and he kept it going last night in Jacksonville.
Two games in, Pickett’s completed 19 of 22 passes for 171 yards, with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions. That’s 86 percent passing.
Below see a chart showing quarterbacks selected in the first round in the last 10 years, along with their passing stats from their first preseason. Pickett is currently sitting with a passer rating of 138.6, which is higher than all of them.
At the same time, there hasn’t been a strong historical correlation between preseason success and getting it done in the real games. Five others have finished the preseason with passer ratings over 110, and none of them have had great careers (at least so far): Zach Wilson, Daniel Jones, EJ Manuel, Teddy Bridgewater and Blake Bortles.
In the chart below, I have put black dots next to the names of the quarterbacks who’ve had the most success in real games. And those guys have come from all over the map.
In the chart below, I’m showing only first-round picks. (Russell Wilson comes to mind as a third-down choice who played very well in his first preseason.)
| ROOKIE PASSING STATS IN PRESEASON | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Att | Com | Yds | Pct | TD | Int | Rating |
| 2022 | Kenny Pickett, Pitt. | 22 | 19 | 171 | 86.4 | 3 | 0 | 138.6 |
| 2021 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | 20 | 15 | 191 | 75.0 | 2 | 0 | 137.7 |
| 2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 34 | 29 | 416 | 85.3 | 2 | 0 | 137.3 |
| 2013 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 33 | 26 | 199 | 78.8 | 2 | 0 | 112.0 |
| 2014 | Teddy Bridgewater, Min. | 49 | 30 | 283 | 61.2 | 5 | 0 | 111.2 |
| 2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 51 | 32 | 521 | 62.7 | 2 | 0 | 110.0 |
| 2017 | • Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 54 | 34 | 390 | 63.0 | 4 | 0 | 109.3 |
| 2021 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 44 | 31 | 323 | 70.5 | 2 | 0 | 106.5 |
| 2017 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 53 | 36 | 364 | 67.9 | 3 | 0 | 106.2 |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin III, Was. | 31 | 20 | 193 | 64.5 | 2 | 0 | 103.3 |
| 2015 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 30 | 21 | 326 | 70.0 | 1 | 1 | 102.9 |
| 2021 | Mac Jones, N.E. | 52 | 36 | 388 | 69.2 | 1 | 0 | 97.3 |
| 2021 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 49 | 30 | 276 | 61.2 | 2 | 0 | 90.2 |
| 2012 | • Andrew Luck, Ind. | 66 | 41 | 522 | 62.1 | 3 | 2 | 89.3 |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield, Clev. | 61 | 35 | 501 | 57.4 | 2 | 1 | 88.2 |
| 2016 | Paxton Lynch, Den. | 68 | 40 | 458 | 58.8 | 4 | 2 | 86.5 |
| 2018 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 45 | 29 | 244 | 64.4 | 2 | 1 | 83.9 |
| 2021 | Trey Lance, S.F. | 41 | 19 | 276 | 46.3 | 3 | 1 | 83.0 |
| 2018 | • Josh Allen, Buff. | 44 | 24 | 210 | 54.5 | 2 | 0 | 82.6 |
| 2018 | Josh Rosen, Ari. | 29 | 16 | 148 | 55.2 | 1 | 0 | 80.8 |
| 2019 | • Kyler Murray, Ari. | 36 | 23 | 193 | 63.9 | 0 | 0 | 77.7 |
| 2018 | • Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 68 | 34 | 408 | 50.0 | 3 | 1 | 77.3 |
| 2014 | Johnny Manziel, Clev. | 59 | 30 | 296 | 50.8 | 2 | 0 | 76.7 |
| 2019 | Dwayne Haskins, Was. | 58 | 32 | 409 | 55.2 | 2 | 2 | 74.6 |
| 2017 | • Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 56 | 29 | 397 | 51.8 | 0 | 1 | 67.3 |
| 2012 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 78 | 41 | 414 | 52.6 | 1 | 1 | 66.9 |
| 2012 | Brandon Weeden, Clev. | 49 | 24 | 297 | 49.0 | 0 | 1 | 59.7 |
| 2016 | Jared Goff, LAR | 49 | 22 | 232 | 44.9 | 2 | 2 | 55.8 |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 47 | 23 | 311 | 48.9 | 0 | 2 | 52.7 |
| 2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 24 | 12 | 89 | 50.0 | 0 | 1 | 41.8 |
—Ian Allan