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Factoid

Kenny Pickett

Pittsburgh rookie slicing up secondaries

So far, so good for Kenny Pickett. He’s been ripping it up pretty good, looking like he’ll be moving past Mitchell Trubisky and Mason Rudolph sooner rather than later. He’s been successfully operating Pittsburgh’s offense.

Pickett was good in his opener against the Seahawks, and he kept it going last night in Jacksonville.

Two games in, Pickett’s completed 19 of 22 passes for 171 yards, with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions. That’s 86 percent passing.

Below see a chart showing quarterbacks selected in the first round in the last 10 years, along with their passing stats from their first preseason. Pickett is currently sitting with a passer rating of 138.6, which is higher than all of them.

At the same time, there hasn’t been a strong historical correlation between preseason success and getting it done in the real games. Five others have finished the preseason with passer ratings over 110, and none of them have had great careers (at least so far): Zach Wilson, Daniel Jones, EJ Manuel, Teddy Bridgewater and Blake Bortles.

In the chart below, I have put black dots next to the names of the quarterbacks who’ve had the most success in real games. And those guys have come from all over the map.

In the chart below, I’m showing only first-round picks. (Russell Wilson comes to mind as a third-down choice who played very well in his first preseason.)

ROOKIE PASSING STATS IN PRESEASON
YearPlayerAttComYdsPctTDIntRating
2022Kenny Pickett, Pitt.221917186.430138.6
2021Zach Wilson, NYJ201519175.020137.7
2019Daniel Jones, NYG342941685.320137.3
2013EJ Manuel, Buff.332619978.820112.0
2014Teddy Bridgewater, Min.493028361.250111.2
2014Blake Bortles, Jac.513252162.720110.0
2017• Patrick Mahomes, K.C.543439063.040109.3
2021Trevor Lawrence, Jac.443132370.520106.5
2017Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.533636467.930106.2
2012Robert Griffin III, Was.312019364.520103.3
2015Marcus Mariota, Ten.302132670.011102.9
2021Mac Jones, N.E.523638869.21097.3
2021Justin Fields, Chi.493027661.22090.2
2012• Andrew Luck, Ind.664152262.13289.3
2018Baker Mayfield, Clev.613550157.42188.2
2016Paxton Lynch, Den.684045858.84286.5
2018Sam Darnold, NYJ452924464.42183.9
2021Trey Lance, S.F.411927646.33183.0
2018• Josh Allen, Buff.442421054.52082.6
2018Josh Rosen, Ari.291614855.21080.8
2019• Kyler Murray, Ari.362319363.90077.7
2018• Lamar Jackson, Balt.683440850.03177.3
2014Johnny Manziel, Clev.593029650.82076.7
2019Dwayne Haskins, Was.583240955.22274.6
2017• Deshaun Watson, Hou.562939751.80167.3
2012Ryan Tannehill, Mia.784141452.61166.9
2012Brandon Weeden, Clev.492429749.00159.7
2016Jared Goff, LAR492223244.92255.8
2015Jameis Winston, T.B.472331148.90252.7
2016Carson Wentz, Phil.24128950.00141.8

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index