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Factoid

September 06, 2022

Rookie receivers

Quiet preseason could leave rookie receivers undervalued

The rookie receivers didn’t light up the boxscores in the preseason, but that’s OK. That’s just how it goes nowadays. And if form holds, probably a couple of these first-year receivers are going to be very good.

I’ve trotted out the numbers a few times. In the last 10 seasons, 26 rookie receivers have finished with top-30 numbers. (That’s using PPR scoring). There’s been at least three in each of the last three seasons. These guys are coming in ready to play.

Gone, however, are the days of preseason games being an integral tool in getting ready for the regular seasons. Most coaches nowadays prefer to rely more on controlled work at practices. The old model of the first-unit offense playing some in the first two preseason games, then playing into the third quarter of the third game, has been retired.

In the last three years, 11 wide receivers finished with top-30 numbers in their rookie year. None of those guys, remarkably, had 30 receiving yards in the preseason, and none of them caught a touchdown.

So best, I’m thinking, to not get too worried about the modest debuts of those six receivers taken in the first round (and I’ve got them all listed below). I expect we’ll see some good games out of those guys (and some of the later-round guys as well).

Pictured: Jahan Dotson, Washington.

PRESEASON STATS FOR BEST ROOKIE RECEIVERS (last 10 yrs)
YearPlayerTgtNoYdsTDReal Games
2021JaMarr Chase, Cin.5116081-1455-13
2021Jaylen Waddle, Mia.43210104-1015-7
2021Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det.10628090-912-6
2021DeVonta Smith, Phil.4219064-916-5
2020Justin Jefferson, Min.--------88-1400-7
2020CeeDee Lamb, Dall.--------74-935-7
2020Chase Claypool, Pitt.--------62-873-11
2020Tee Higgins, Cin.--------67-908-6
2019A.J. Brown, Ten.3110052-1051-9
2019DK Metcalf, Sea.418058-900-7
2019Terry McLaurin, Was.000058-919-7
2018Calvin Ridley, Atl.11559164-821-10
2017JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt.6435058-917-8
2017Cooper Kupp, LAR108105162-869-5
2016Michael Thomas, N.O.10452092-1137-9
2016Tyreek Hill, K.C.12490061-593-12
2015Amari Cooper, Oak.158124072-1070-6
2014Odell Beckham, NYG--------91-1305-12
2014Mike Evans, T.B.7596168-1051-12
2014Kelvin Benjamin, Car.1912193173-1008-9
2014Jordan Matthews, Phil.1915134067-872-8
2014Sammy Watkins, Buff.8321065-982-6
2014Jarvis Landry, Mia.8773084-758-5
2013Keenan Allen, S.D.10648071-1046-8
2012T.Y. Hilton, Ind.149116150-861-8
2012Justin Blackmon, Jac.1610136164-865-5
2022Drake London, Atl.11240?
2022Garrett Wilson, NYJ86520?
2022Chris Olave, N.O.54511?
2022Jameson Williams, Det.--------?
2022Jahan Dotson, Was.22230?
2022Treylon Burks, Ten.74371?

—Ian Allan

The

Jahan Dotson Garrett Wilson Chris Olave Treylon Burks Drake London

40 Reader Comments:

Richard Jackson

Berkeley, CA
2022-09-06T17:57:04Z
Agreed, stocked up on several rookie WRs late in my drafts. Seems there is upside value there, especially once you have your top 2-3 WRs drafted as safety.

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2022-09-06T18:09:38Z
On the numbers above, two of them are guesses. I know that Terry McLaurin and Odell Beckham didn't catch passes in the preseason as rookies. My memory is that Beckham was hurt and didn't play at all. With McLaurin, I don't recall. I put him down with zeros (implying that he was on the field some but wasn't targeted) but I don't recall and wasn't sure where I could find participation charts indicating whether he was on the field. McLaurin definitely was on the field in Week 1 against the Eagles, catching a long touchdown, and I think he could have had another long score in that game had the ball been thrown a little better.

Craig Larimer

Portland, OR
2022-09-06T18:10:19Z
Like Richard, I have several rookies. In my main quirky league, we play 6 WR/TE each week. My son and I have some good options as our 5&6. Wilson of Jets, Olave, Kirk and Moore of AZ. We followed FFI closely in our draft last night.

Bill Rehor

Culver City, CA
2022-09-06T18:45:14Z
Is the data different for rookie running backs? You’ve been pretty vocal about dropping Hall and Walker based on their preseasons (even in dynasty) so I assume you don’t think they deserve the same pass you’re giving the wideouts.

Mark Favreau

Thousand Oaks, CA
2022-09-06T18:56:55Z
LOVE Burks. Best situation.

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2022-09-06T19:12:02Z
As Bill points out, I would guess running backs will be the same. There will be some guys that we've overreacted on. Though I will restate my position on Pierce and B.Hall. I think Pierce looks like a legit NFL running back. I am confident he will be good. He's definitely going to be a top-20 back. With Hall, I imagine he'll come around. He's talented, and he'll get it figured out. But I'm thinking Hall will begin his career sharing time with Michael Carter, and I'm not sure when Hall will become the better of those two backs. So if we're picking for 2022, I'm definitley taking Pierce before Hall. In a dynasty format, it gets closer, but I also have Pierce higher there. That might not age well, but that's how I'm playing it.

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2022-09-06T19:14:03Z
Burks might not start initially. When Titans trot out for their first play on Sunday, I think it will be with Woods and Ikhine-Westbrook. When Burks becomes a starter, I don't know. (Two years go, of course, Jefferson wasn't an opening day starter for the Vikings, with Bisi Johnson in that Ikhine-Westbrook role.)

James Costello

Portland, ME
2022-09-06T20:34:01Z
I have Olave on all 3 of my teams. The last time I secured a rookie on all of my teams was Kamara

Russ Neis

Eagan, MN
2022-09-06T20:50:22Z
Pierce just named #1 RB on Texans depth chart

Darrell Sooy

West Chester, PA
2022-09-06T21:21:40Z
A reader posted a video showing that Malik Willis just missed Burks on a bunch of plays. Can’t remember which list it was, but they explained that he was open a bunch, albeit against lesser defenders, just Willis missed the play.

https://youtu.be/48TyXfSvJyg

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2022-09-06T21:47:03Z
Agreed, Darrell. That was a very good observation. Specifically, Burks appeared to be open for a very easy 63-yard touchdown. It did not require a difficult throw. I tend to be a little down on all of these rookie receivers, but the historical data from recent years indicates a few of these guys will hit. Burks could be one of them.

David Kennedy

Steamburg, NY
2022-09-06T22:04:44Z
My best bet is Olave. Even if Thomas is fully back can he stay on the field?

David Kennedy

Steamburg, NY
2022-09-06T22:06:33Z
Russ you are about a month behind on that news. We all knew Peirce was a stud the first preseason game.

Bill Rehor

Culver City, CA
2022-09-06T22:27:33Z
Yeah, that's my fear with Pierce. I like him (and drafted him last night for $20 in a $200 cap league) but I do think there's some double-counting going on. We've all known he was going to start since that first preseason game, but every time there's a positive development (Mack getting cut, etc.) instead of just saying, "That confirms what I already knew" the community seems to bump him up even further, as if he's something more that he was already. That's the same phenomenon that got Callaway drafted as a starter last August. Pierce is another David Montgomery - a slow but talented RB on a very bad team. Happy to have him at $20, but I'd have bailed out at $30.

Justin Eleff

Alexandria, VA
2022-09-06T23:03:32Z
Bill: I think you’ve hit on the most dangerous part of preseason observation. It isn’t the initial overreaction; it’s the snowball effect. I like Isaiah McKenzie a ton, but he’s now going 60-plus spots ahead of Jamison Crowder. Even if McKenzie won the job decisively and is the full-time slot guy right now (we can’t even know THAT), it’s not like Crowder will play zero snaps, and it’s not like their standing couldn’t reverse. People get way too confident that the most recent news is the really for sure real official (I swear!) only only only permanent news.

David Kennedy

Steamburg, NY
2022-09-07T00:00:00Z
Yeah I drafted Mckenzie as my WR 6 or 7 in early drafts. Not sure I will ever use him but he is on my bench. Peirce I am kicking myself for not drafting him more. 2 very different case Eleff?

David Kennedy

Steamburg, NY
2022-09-07T00:02:45Z
Justin Eleff I am surprised Crowder made the team. Shakir looked better. Crowder might just be a depth guy. Much like those who believed in Marlon Mack.

Justin Eleff

Alexandria, VA
2022-09-07T00:12:28Z
David: Ian is more confident in Pierce than I am, which surprises me because I did and do like Pierce a lot, and which makes me nervous because Ian is Ian. But I can't believe what I believe about McKenzie having gotten too expensive (and George Pickens having gotten even more expensive than that, etc., etc.) and not also be at least a little wary of the current market for Dameon Pierce. He looks like the best version of David Montgomery to me, stuck in a similar situation and obviously with fresher legs. But David Montgomery at his best has never been a guy I felt would have been the missing piece if only I'd taken him. I like Pierce plenty after Round 6. I can't ever get him there anymore, so we'll see if the shares I got before things really started to roll prove to be enough.

Russell Pitts

Fallbrook, CA
2022-09-07T00:48:55Z
I'm still not a believer in rookie WR's. I loaded up on Pierce, Rachaad White, Zamir White, and Brian Buckshot Robinson hoping one of them hit late in the season.

Paul Desimone

Hayward, CA
2022-09-07T00:49:08Z
I don't recall seeing anywhere that Ian advocated dropping either Hall or Walker. Ian's preference for Pierce for the here and now is not a secret, nor is it without basis. He allows that Hall may be a pretty good back before long, while not saying a whole lot about Walker. Maybe Bill didn't mean it to come out quite that way. If so, I'm the misspeak specialist, and you'll never catch up to me, Bill.

Justin Eleff

Alexandria, VA
2022-09-07T01:08:42Z
Crowder as of 2021 was still very good at what he does: get open, catch passes. He’s also 5’8” and 185 lbs. — which is to say, something like an inch TALLER and 12 lbs. HEAVIER than McKenzie. Odds are good that neither guy lasts 17 games, so if you like one you should probably be ready to tee up the other. And I have to think we should at least consider taking the five-round discount on a seemingly similar player doing some of the same stuff the same way for the same team. Another good example: I love Elijah Moore more than just about anyone could healthily admit about any player. But are we really sure we want him around pick 70 more than Garrett Wilson at pick 125+?

David Kennedy

Steamburg, NY
2022-09-07T01:49:00Z
Justin Eleff all rhetoric aside Peirce is a starter and RB to own. Mckenzie is a bench warmer. You can dress her up but do you want to take her to the Prom?

David Kennedy

Steamburg, NY
2022-09-07T01:49:49Z
What do you mean by Ian is Ian?

David Kennedy

Steamburg, NY
2022-09-07T01:58:13Z
Justin Eleff I think James Robinson is a perfect example of how you are completely wrong. Good RBs can come from bad teams.

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2022-09-07T02:17:32Z
"Ian is Ian". Rare Justin Eleff opinion that I agree with.

Bill Rehor

Culver City, CA
2022-09-07T02:20:23Z
Paul - the way Ian has Walker ranked, in both seasonal and dynasty, I think you can say he advocates for not rostering the guy. As I recall he ranked Walker as 15th overall amongst the rookies in the latest mailbag, which means he will never, ever be on your dynasty team. Which is all good and he may be right, but for me it's WAY too early to give up on a guy with that kind of college tape. Just a difference of opinion, no harm no foul.

Justin Eleff

Alexandria, VA
2022-09-07T02:28:31Z
“Ian is Ian” … and it’s seldom a great idea to have very different opinions from Ian. I will say though, I reject the notion that Pierce is a starter and McKenzie is a benchwarmer, both because that assumes we know the true level of both players and I’m not sure we can know the true level of either, and because there’s no such thing as an unimportant roster spot. If you’re carrying players you don’t think are potential starters for you you’re definitely carrying the wrong players. Every last pick, every dollar, every acquisition matters.

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2022-09-07T02:42:46Z
Among rookie running backs, I would go Pierce-Hall-Robinson-Walker if drafting today. I realize Robinson probably will be down a few months, but I think he'll be starting when he gets back. I'd rather have him than Walker. I'm not saying Walker can never be a player, but I've got him down at #4, and as Bill Rehor points out, if you've got Walker down at 4, he ain't going to be on your dynasty team.

Paul Desimone

Hayward, CA
2022-09-07T02:56:42Z
Hey Bill, I never thought to check the rankings (what a capitol idea!). They would speak louder than what I thought from articles I read. My apology.
I just drafted both Hall and Walker in 4 out of 5 drafts this past weekend. I'm sold and expect good things before long. Teams don't draft RBs in the second round without expecting them to carry the load in time.

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY
2022-09-07T03:08:49Z
I don’t know why everyone is so certain Houston is a terrible team. There’s only a handful of AFC teams I’m certain are good. I see 7-8 winnable games: Jaguars twice, Bears, Giants, commanders, browns, and maybe the Titans, too. I doubt any of those teams are blowing Houston out, that’s for certain.

Shaun Hawkins

Albany, GA
2022-09-07T03:20:00Z
Paul, the same argument could be made about Penny. He is in front of Walker, and was a 1st round pick who led the NFL in rushing over the last part of last year as his 1st extended healthy playing time, so they may expect that this is HIS time to carry the load, with Walker blending in secondarily if healthy. Penny's only issue has been staying healthy.

Paul Desimone

Hayward, CA
2022-09-07T03:48:35Z
I would never argue that Penny can't hang on to the starting role. But given that injury history, hard to trust.

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2022-09-07T03:58:05Z
I liked the look of Houston in the preseason. They looked like a team that will be playing hard. But I saw that Mike Sando of The Athletic did a poll of six GMs on the weekend. All six had the Texans as the worst team in the conference. All of their free agent signings have been lesser, journeyman-type guys. The talent level just isn't very good. So when the Texans look kind of good in the preseason, that might be kind of like the Lions going undefeated in the preseason way back when (they losing all 16 in the real games). Not saying that will happen. But maybe.

Paul Desimone

Hayward, CA
2022-09-07T06:19:26Z
It's just as easy for a GM's eyes to be jaundiced as anyone else's. Granted, this is a new staff. But the players who remain from last year had it ingrained to play hard-nosed, physical football. And that's what the team under Lovie Smith did this preseason. I don't think these guys are going to be pushovers for anybody. And Pierce may be the poster boy.

David Kennedy

Steamburg, NY
2022-09-07T11:11:30Z
Mckenzie for my fantasy teams is a bench guy. I cant start him over the players I am starting in my flex spots like Sutton, Jeudy, Conner, Davis, Allen Robinson etc. Mr. Eleff. My early TFC drafts Mckenzie looks like my 7th best WR behind guys like Olave, Palmer, n Pickens. The only thing your right about is yes Mckenzie will start for the Bills.

David Kennedy

Steamburg, NY
2022-09-07T11:13:08Z
Ian is Ian is the rare opinion I agree with that was funny Ian.

Robert McKinlay

Belews Creek, NC
2022-09-07T12:49:09Z
Yes clever Ian. Agree too on Rookie WRs from round 1 not to worry too much about. And you got Wan'Dale Robinson on cheat sheet higher than Olive, Wilson, and Williams. I picked him up on waivers. This guy could be next Deebo. May exceed 400 yards rushing. WE shall see.

Richard Weber

Fort Myers, FL
2022-09-07T15:07:59Z
“Jahan Dotson is the best WR on the team right now.” That's the opinion of former NFL tight end Logan Paulsen, who attended most of the Commanders’ practices. Having watched every college game he ever played, I can say he's a freak. I drafted Dotson on one of my three teams, somebody else beat me to him in another league, and he is on waivers in the third league. I will be snapping him up in that league.

Justin Eleff

Alexandria, VA
2022-09-07T15:59:36Z
David: Again, there's just a lot we don't know here, and one of the biggest dangers of the preseason is deciding that what we think we're seeing is definitely how everything is. Not to put too fine a point on it, but I'm pretty confident that however you're currently ranking Olave vs. Palmer vs. Pickens vs. McKenzie, you have them out of order. Every one of those guys is a big unknown. It's why (probably) you took so many of the type.

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA
2022-09-07T16:10:00Z
Wan'Dale in the preseason caught 4 passes for 1 yard. They threw him a bunch of balls around the line of scrimmage that didn't go anywhere. Could make some sense in PPR formats. But if we're looking for a guy who changes the narrative on Sunday, it's far more likely to be Dotson.
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