It was just one game, but it doesn’t look like Matthew Stafford is getting back to the kind of killer numbers he put up in the first half of last year. The Rams just aren’t as good, I think, and defenses have a better feel for how to play against them.
Stafford came out of the gates smoking hot last year, consistently hitting on big plays downfield. Especially against the Bucs, connecting with DeSean Jackson. Stafford in his first eight games last year averaged 310 passing yards, with 22 TDs (almost 3 per week).
But Stafford slowed down in the second half of last year, and we saw a continuation of that less explosive style of play last year. Stafford in his last 10 regular-season games has averaged 265 passing yards, with 20 TDs. That’s 46 fewer yards per week, and with about a touchdown less per game.
The offensive line, I think, is a factor. It’s nothing special, and teams have been able to put him under pressure. Stafford was sacked only 7 times in his first eight games last year. He got sacked that many times last night along. And he’s been sacked 30 times in his last 10 games.
And with additional pressure and better coverages, Stafford is turning the ball over. Just 4 interceptions in his first seven games last year, but now he’s thrown 16 interceptions in his last 10. (And with fumbles increasing from 1 to 5.) Oddly, he’s become one of the very most favorable matchups for a defense (at least for scoring systems emphasizing sacks and takeaways).
The Rams are playing a first-place schedule, so they’ll be running into plenty of defenses that can cause problems for them. They’ve got a pair, for example, against the 49ers, and that defensive line was very good against them last year.
I’m not sure what the fixes are. They’ll get more out of Allen Robinson, and Van Jefferson is coming back, but I don’t see either of those guys as likely to save the offense. I wonder if the Rams would consider signing Will Fuller? He would add some juice outside, but teams are also simply playing them differently, forcing more short passing. And I don’t think the Rams will get much help out of the running game, with Darrell Henderson and Cam Akers running behind that line. To me, it looks like a bottom-5 run game.
The Rams didn’t look like a Super Bowl contender last year. And with Stafford, he’s looking like a guy who’ll finish with top-10 passing numbers some weeks, rather than a difference-maker type who’s placing up in the top 5 in a lot of weeks.
Stafford’s regular-season starts appear below. As a disclaimer, there’s a cherry-picking dimension here, with the postseason games left out. He averaged 297 passing yards in his four playoff starts last year, with 9 TDs, 3 interceptions and 7 sacks.
| MATTHEW STAFFORD WITH THE RAMS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opp | Result | Com | Att | Pct | Yds | TD | Int | Sk |
| Chi. | W 34-14 | 20 | 26 | 76.9 | 321 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| at Ind. | W 27-24 | 19 | 30 | 63.3 | 278 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| T.B. | W 34-24 | 27 | 38 | 71.1 | 343 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Ari. | L 20-37 | 26 | 41 | 63.4 | 280 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| at Sea. | W 26-17 | 25 | 37 | 67.6 | 365 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| at NYG | W 38-11 | 22 | 28 | 78.6 | 251 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Det. | W 28-19 | 28 | 41 | 68.3 | 334 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| at Hou. | W 38-22 | 21 | 32 | 65.6 | 305 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Ten. | L 16-28 | 31 | 48 | 64.6 | 294 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| at S.F. | L 10-31 | 26 | 41 | 63.4 | 243 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| at G.B. | L 28-36 | 21 | 38 | 55.3 | 302 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Jac. | W 37-7 | 26 | 38 | 68.4 | 295 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| at Ari. | W 30-23 | 23 | 30 | 76.7 | 287 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Sea. | W 20-10 | 21 | 29 | 72.4 | 244 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| at Min. | W 30-23 | 21 | 37 | 56.8 | 197 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| at Bal. | W 20-19 | 26 | 35 | 74.3 | 309 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| S.F. | L 24-27 | 21 | 32 | 65.6 | 238 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Buf. | L 10-31 | 29 | 41 | 70.7 | 240 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
—Ian Allan