It’s early, but it’s looking like it’s going to be a down year for scoring. Teams are averaging only 21 points per game so far, which is the lowest in 16 years.
After three weeks of action, only 13 teams are averaging more than 2 TDs per game. Typically when an offense doesn’t average more than 2 touchdowns, that’s a bottom-10 unit, but there are 19 such offenses after Week 3.
Five of the six lowest-scoring teams so far, oddly, are teams that most expected to be in the playoffs – Colts, Broncos, Cowboys, 49ers, Packers.
Below are the league averages for every season since the NFL moved to 32 teams in 2002, mixed with where teams stand after Week 3.
For most of the last 20 years, the league has been using 16 games per season, so I have adjusted the 2021 and 2022 numbers to fit that length of season.
With how teams have played in recent years, you would expect teams in 2022 to average about 380 points (in the first 16 weeks of the season), but the vast majority of teams are well off that clip.
Some offenses presumably will get better as they improve their timing and execution. But at the same time, some elite players will be injured along the way, making it harder for those offenses to be as good late in the year.
SCORING VS. LEAGUE AVERAGES SINCE 2002 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | TDP | TDR | Points |
Baltimore | 53.3 | 10.7 | 528.0 |
Detroit | 37.3 | 26.7 | 506.7 |
Buffalo | 48.0 | 5.3 | 485.3 |
Kansas City | 42.7 | 10.7 | 469.3 |
Philadelphia | 21.3 | 32.0 | 458.7 |
Cleveland | 21.3 | 26.7 | 453.3 |
Jacksonville | 32.0 | 16.0 | 448.0 |
Miami | 42.7 | 10.7 | 442.7 |
Atlanta | 16.0 | 21.3 | 426.7 |
2020 league average | 27.2 | 16.6 | 396.6 |
2013 league average | 25.1 | 12.8 | 374.5 |
2018 league average | 26.5 | 13.7 | 373.5 |
2021 league average | 24.7 | 14.9 | 367.7 |
2015 league average | 26.3 | 11.4 | 365.0 |
2019 league average | 24.9 | 14.0 | 365.0 |
2016 league average | 24.6 | 13.8 | 364.4 |
2012 league average | 23.7 | 12.5 | 364.1 |
2014 league average | 25.2 | 11.9 | 361.4 |
2011 league average | 23.3 | 12.5 | 354.9 |
2010 league average | 23.5 | 12.5 | 352.6 |
2008 league average | 20.2 | 14.9 | 352.5 |
2017 league average | 23.2 | 11.9 | 347.5 |
2007 league average | 22.5 | 12.1 | 347.0 |
2002 league average | 21.7 | 14.4 | 346.8 |
2004 league average | 22.9 | 13.0 | 343.8 |
2009 league average | 22.2 | 13.4 | 343.5 |
Cincinnati | 32.0 | .0 | 341.3 |
Las Vegas | 32.0 | .0 | 341.3 |
2022 league average | 24.0 | 11.5 | 336.7 |
Washington | 37.3 | 10.7 | 336.0 |
2003 league average | 20.4 | 13.3 | 333.3 |
Arizona | 16.0 | 16.0 | 330.7 |
Carolina | 16.0 | 10.7 | 330.7 |
2006 league average | 20.3 | 13.3 | 330.5 |
2005 league average | 20.1 | 13.5 | 329.9 |
LA Rams | 21.3 | 16.0 | 325.3 |
LA Chargers | 37.3 | .0 | 309.3 |
Minnesota | 26.7 | 10.7 | 309.3 |
NY Giants | 16.0 | 10.7 | 298.7 |
Pittsburgh | 10.7 | 10.7 | 288.0 |
Chicago | 10.7 | 21.3 | 277.3 |
NY Jets | 26.7 | .0 | 277.3 |
New Orleans | 21.3 | 10.7 | 272.0 |
Tampa Bay | 16.0 | .0 | 272.0 |
Tennessee | 16.0 | 16.0 | 272.0 |
New England | 10.7 | 21.3 | 266.7 |
Houston | 16.0 | 5.3 | 261.3 |
Green Bay | 21.3 | 10.7 | 256.0 |
San Francisco | 10.7 | 16.0 | 250.7 |
Seattle | 21.3 | .0 | 250.7 |
Dallas | 10.7 | 10.7 | 245.3 |
Denver | 10.7 | 5.3 | 229.3 |
Indianapolis | 16.0 | 5.3 | 213.3 |
—Ian Allan