Fantasy Index

header banner img
OUR FANTASY BASEBALL MAGAZINE IS BACK! PRE-ORDER NOW
Win here.

Factoid

Scoring drought

Offenses off to sluggish starts

It’s early, but it’s looking like it’s going to be a down year for scoring. Teams are averaging only 21 points per game so far, which is the lowest in 16 years.

After three weeks of action, only 13 teams are averaging more than 2 TDs per game. Typically when an offense doesn’t average more than 2 touchdowns, that’s a bottom-10 unit, but there are 19 such offenses after Week 3.

Five of the six lowest-scoring teams so far, oddly, are teams that most expected to be in the playoffs – Colts, Broncos, Cowboys, 49ers, Packers.

Below are the league averages for every season since the NFL moved to 32 teams in 2002, mixed with where teams stand after Week 3.

For most of the last 20 years, the league has been using 16 games per season, so I have adjusted the 2021 and 2022 numbers to fit that length of season.

With how teams have played in recent years, you would expect teams in 2022 to average about 380 points (in the first 16 weeks of the season), but the vast majority of teams are well off that clip.

Some offenses presumably will get better as they improve their timing and execution. But at the same time, some elite players will be injured along the way, making it harder for those offenses to be as good late in the year.

SCORING VS. LEAGUE AVERAGES SINCE 2002
TeamTDPTDRPoints
Baltimore53.310.7528.0
Detroit37.326.7506.7
Buffalo48.05.3485.3
Kansas City42.710.7469.3
Philadelphia21.332.0458.7
Cleveland21.326.7453.3
Jacksonville32.016.0448.0
Miami42.710.7442.7
Atlanta16.021.3426.7
2020 league average27.216.6396.6
2013 league average25.112.8374.5
2018 league average26.513.7373.5
2021 league average24.714.9367.7
2015 league average26.311.4365.0
2019 league average24.914.0365.0
2016 league average24.613.8364.4
2012 league average23.712.5364.1
2014 league average25.211.9361.4
2011 league average23.312.5354.9
2010 league average23.512.5352.6
2008 league average20.214.9352.5
2017 league average23.211.9347.5
2007 league average22.512.1347.0
2002 league average21.714.4346.8
2004 league average22.913.0343.8
2009 league average22.213.4343.5
Cincinnati32.0.0341.3
Las Vegas32.0.0341.3
2022 league average24.011.5336.7
Washington37.310.7336.0
2003 league average20.413.3333.3
Arizona16.016.0330.7
Carolina16.010.7330.7
2006 league average20.313.3330.5
2005 league average20.113.5329.9
LA Rams21.316.0325.3
LA Chargers37.3.0309.3
Minnesota26.710.7309.3
NY Giants16.010.7298.7
Pittsburgh10.710.7288.0
Chicago10.721.3277.3
NY Jets26.7.0277.3
New Orleans21.310.7272.0
Tampa Bay16.0.0272.0
Tennessee16.016.0272.0
New England10.721.3266.7
Houston16.05.3261.3
Green Bay21.310.7256.0
San Francisco10.716.0250.7
Seattle21.3.0250.7
Dallas10.710.7245.3
Denver10.75.3229.3
Indianapolis16.05.3213.3

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index